2024 Election Odds at 100-Day Mark: Harris Charging Hard for Democrats

Kamala Polling Even With Trump as Odds Tighten

Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election upended the race for the Oval Office in less than a week.

GOP nominee Donald Trump, who was also the 45th U.S. President, was a heavy favorite to take back the White House when Biden abruptly announced he would not seek reelection July 21.

Vice President Kamala Harris has secured enough endorsements and delegates to be named the Democratic candidate for President at the upcoming Democratic National Committee convention in less than three weeks in Chicago.

Dems have rallied around Harris, who is gaining serious momentum. Between her entry and a slew of weird reports about Trump’s own Vice Presidential candidate J.D. Vance, Harris becoming the first female U.S. President is not only plausible but seeming likely.

Here’s a look at the 2024 election odds at the 100-day mark.

Harris surging

Even after Biden’s dreadful first-debate performance against Trump between 2024 Presidential candidates in Atlanta on June 27, the 46th President was still considered a lock to claim the Democratic nomination, though he was a heavy underdog to Trump.

A first-term incumbent had sought reelection in every Presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew his candidacy for a second term in 1969, though he was the President for six years after taking over for John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1963.

Thus, Harris’ odds remained about +950 to win the White House even as high-level Democrats began calling for Biden to drop out. But the 59-year-old has been surging since Biden abruptly announced his decision to exit the race, and she is a slight +125 underdog for 2024 election odds at the 100-day mark.

Polling has Harris in a dead heat with Trump, and there is reason to believe Harris’ momentum will continue. She has yet to name a vice-presidential candidate, though we found out Monday it won’t be North Carolina governor Roy Cooper, but assuming she chooses a popular sidekick, her polling and odds are almost certain to improve.

Plus, thanks to Biden winning the White House in 2020, Dems also get the second presidential convention, which will give Harris extra time to develop messaging and the party an opportunity to sell undecided voters on her. Candidates almost universally get a post-convention bump in polling and odds.

Don’t be surprised if Harris is at least minus-money after the DNC.

Trump Flailing

The GOP candidate is still a -175 favorite to retake the White House for 2024 election odds at the 100-day mark which still implies a 63.6% chance of a second Trump term.

But Trump and the GOP were riding high after a month of incredible events, starting with Biden’s sleepy debate performance. Between that, the failed assassination attempt — which yielded an indelible image of Trump’s strength after a bullet grazed him — and the GOP convention, Trump was a -400 favorite before Biden dropped out.

Trump seemed more energetic in a race between two extremely unpopular old, white men. But both Trump and his surrogates seem to be struggling to land any punches against Harris, outside of calling her a “DEI hire,” which is effectively coded racism.

Plus, Vance, the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio who was added to the ticket to give Trump a further boost among rural voters, is having a net-negative impact to the point that Trump is reportedly considering ditching him less than a month after naming him his VP candidate.

As opposed to Harris, who did not speak out of turn both during Biden’s first campaign and term, Vance can’t seem to stay out of the news cycle, disparaging women without children as “cat ladies,” and conjuring weird imagery as rumors and jokes about couches have gone viral.

Luckily for Trump, he is still favored and the election is still three-plus months away, meaning there is ample time for voters to forget the summer swoon. But if you were interested in making election predictions, things are not trending in the right direction.

Democratic VP candidates

Democrats are waiting with bated breath to find out who Harris will pick as her potential running mate. Though she’s been the presumed candidate for fewer than two weeks, Harris has already narrowed the list, with Cooper’s sudden exit from consideration reported Monday.

Three candidates have emerged as favorites, and unsurprisingly each hails from a swing state Democrats are trying to keep blue after election results are tallied in November. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (+210), Arizona senator Mark Kelly (+240) and Minnesota governor Tim Walz (+520) have emerged as the frontrunners to join Harris on the ticket.

Kelly seems the most likely candidate, but Walz is gaining momentum as a highly competent and sensible cohort, coming from relative obscurity to the third-shortest odds.

Cooper still has the fourth-shortest odds at +1100, and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear rounds out the top-five at +1300.

For Politics betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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