2024 Election Odds: Harris Now Leads Trump

Presumed Democratic Candidate Favored Following Walz Announcement

The Democrats’ Summer Swoon is Officially History

Here’s a look at how Harris now leads Trump.

With less than three months until the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris now leads GOP nominee Donald Trump in both polling and betting odds at sportsbooks taking such wagers.

After flailing for the better part of a month after Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, Trump’s narrow assassination escape and the Republican National Convention, Democrats have all the momentum as they get set for their own convention.

The DNC Convention, which will run from Aug. 19-22 in Chicago, will officially crown Harris as the second-ever female presidential nominee from a major party, with each coming from the Democrats over the past decade.

Doing the Walz

On politics news, Harris’ entry into the race, which took place when Biden abruptly declared he would not seek re-election July 21, started the Democrats’ momentum. The affable 59-year-old added some new blood into the race between the two deeply unpopular candidates who were already the oldest nominees in American history when they first ran against each other four years ago.

Harris is leading in every reported poll as of Aug. 8. She rejuvenated Democrats since she can become both the first female and woman of color to claim the office, energizing both women and people of color, each of which is a group Democrats need to turn out in order to win in November.

The current vice president further boosted the Democrats’ mojo by naming Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate. This came at a flashy ceremony in Philadelphia on Tuesday.

Walz’s star has grown over the past month after a collection of passionate speeches while serving as a Harris surrogate. He also has an exemplary record on issues many Democrats care about as a pro-choice and pro-LGBTQ+ candidate who presided over the indictment of the officer who killed George Floyd in 2020.

  • Walz, 60, has reportedly never lost an election, and like Harris, he isn’t even retirement age in the U.S. Thus, Harris now leads Trump at -110 with the GOP candidate sitting at Even money.

GOP Barbs Fizzle

Republicans have long struggled to successfully land barbs against candidates of color, and that continues to be the case.

Trump and his surrogates have not yet been able to cut into the Democrats’ momentum around Harris. Trump has instead began arguing about crowd sizes, and GOP spokespeople have challenged Walz’s military record, though neither effort has stemmed the tide yet.

In fact, Democrats have remained on the offensive instead of basking in their newly found good fortune. Harris hit Trump by challenging his energy by comparing campaign schedules, and Walz landed a jab at Vance, inviting him to “get off the couch” at his introductory event.

There’s still ample time for Trump and Co. to turn the race, especially with multiple debates now on the calendar. But Republicans have been flailing for almost a month now and haven’t yet found an answer for Harris.

Seeking Value

If you’re looking for the lock of all locks, wager Under 311.5 Electoral College votes for Trump.

  • Sure, the odds are -500, which means just $0.20 profit-per-dollar wagered, but Trump didn’t even surpass 312 Electoral College votes when he won the White House in 2016. He finished with 304 and narrowly edged Hillary Clinton, who officially landed 227.
  • If you’re also looking for a lock, take Harris to win the popular vote at -300. Democrats have won the popular vote in eight of the past nine elections, and Trump has failed to claim the majority of votes in each of his previous two elections.
  • Aside from those near-certainties, seek value or market inefficiencies wherever possible. For instance, one sportsbook has the Dems finishing with 269.5 or fewer Electoral College votes at -130 despite the fact Harris is favored to win the White House. If you’re a Trump bettor, take him at Even (+100) money instead, since there is that value issue.

What’s Next

Harris and the Dems are almost certain to get another odds boost over the next two weeks since all eyes will be on the DNC Convention, which will be a Harris love fest. If you’re hoping to wager on Harris to win, and think she will, now is the time to do so before she gets another convention boost.

But beyond that, Harris and Trump finally agreed to their first presidential debate, on Sept. 10 on ABC. Trump is reportedly hoping that will be the first of three debates, and Vance and Walz are almost certain to also debate at some point in the fall.

  • Although Harris now leads Trump, much can change between now and Nov. 5, which is Election Day in the USA. Trump was a -400 favorite over Biden just three weeks ago after he was shot and before Harris joined the race and was a heavy underdog before defeating Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race in 2016 as well.
  • Trump was also a -300 favorite on Election Night 2020 at some sportsbooks before ultimately falling to Biden.
@kamalahqshe’s running 🔥♬ original sound – Kamala HQ


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