2024 Presidential Election Odds
Trump favored to win second term, Biden slight underdog ahead of first debate Thursday

The presumed Republican and Democratic nominees will participate in the earliest-ever United States Presidential debate on Thursday.
Incumbent Joe Biden and presumed Republican candidate and 45th President Donald Trump will debate at CNN Headquarters in Atlanta. Trump hasn’t officially accepted the nomination — he undoubtedly will at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next month — but they’ll still go at it given the fact the candidates are almost certain to square off in November in a rematch of the 2020 election that Biden won.
Much can change over the next four-and-a-half months, but here are the 2024 USA Presidential Election Odds ahead of the debate on Thursday.
Trump favoredDespite polling that shows the candidate in a deadlock, and the fact he was convicted on 34 felony charges just a month ago, Trump is a convincing -175 favorite in USA Election odds, which carries a 63% implied probability.
- Biden enters the summer with a +130 odds, and the field has +500 2024 USA Presidential Election odds odds — an interesting wager considering Trump’s legal woes that seem to follow him. Aside from his conviction for hush-money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, Trump has also been indicted for allegedly inciting a mob at the U.S. Capital on January 6, 2021 and for mishandling classified documents after he left office.
So Trump’s extremely loyal base will need to stay with him to hang on in November. Polls suggest his approval rating ranged from 37% to 41% throughout his presidency. This unpopularity explains his twice losing the popular vote, even though he secured a narrow Electoral College victory in 2016.
@dingnewscorpTrump is set to win in 2024 because of this reason♬ original sound – Ding News
Age is (not necessarily) Just a Number
Trump and Biden were the two oldest presidential candidates of any major party four years ago, which means they clearly will be again in this go-around.
So for as maligned as Biden has been for his cognitive missteps, those paying attention to political news have also been quick to point out Trump’s erratic behavior at rallies and on the campaign trail.
The debate will stand to highlight each candidate’s ability to think on his toes, especially since it will start at 9 p.m. local time in Georgia to attract a national audience.
Undecided voters still on the fence have the early debate to inform their decision, but by Election Day, it might be a distant memory. Meanwhile, some voters will be swayed by what they hear in the debates, becoming enthusiastic supporters or strong opponents of one candidate or the other.
Unique Props
Somehow it is not third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr that has the third-shortest odds to win the presidency but Michelle Obama, the wife of 44th U.S. President Barack Obama. Michelle is checking in at +1600.
- Kennedy’s odds are +2500. Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris rounds out the top five at +2800.
Also, since Trump has not officially accepted the nomination, and could in theory be disqualified due to his pending legal woes the odds for the GOP candidate to win are different than for Trump to win. The Republican presidential candidate has -140 betting odds to win the Oval Office, and the Democrat has +100 or Even money odds.
- That means if you’re a Republican looking for more lucrative 2024 USA Presidential Election odds the -140, which pays $0.71 profit-per-dollar wagered, is a more compelling option than Trump’s -175.
Despite the fact Trump has failed to win a majority of voters, and he’s the favorite to retake the Oval Office, the odds of the winning candidate losing the popular vote are +120. Only twice has the eventual winner lost the popular vote — George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
So if you believe the betting odds, Trump would win both the popular vote and presidency if the election results were based on today.
For Political betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.