2024 Presidential Odds: Does assassination attempt improve Trump’s presidential chances?
Trump’s odds shorten drastically after former president dodges tragedy at rally
All the drama and scandal surrounding Donald Trump apparently has been long forgotten.
The 45th U.S. President and GOP nominee is a whopping -350 favorite to become the second split-term president in the country’s history. Trump’s odds have become far more favorable after he narrowly dodged an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend.
Trump was a -200 favorite as recently as last week and had drifted between -150 and -190 since the calendar turned to 2024. The Republican National Convention, currently ongoing in Milwaukee this week, will only make Trump seem more popular. But it begs the question of whether there is value betting Trump to win in November.
Here’s a look at the 2024 Presidential odds as of mid-July.
Trump a huge favorite
Despite polling that shows him neck-and-neck with incumbent Joe Biden, those monitoring the politics betting landscape have seen Trump’s numbers surge since he was nearly killed by a gunman who fired an AR-15 rifle at him in Western Pennsylvania.
His odds indicate a 77.8% implied probability of Trump securing the Oval Office when the election is over, and his odds are the shortest they have been since at least Election Night 2020.
Reading the tea leaves in the aftermath of the Trump assassination attempt, Biden is also less likely to be removed, which is why he remains the candidate with the second-shortest odds of +350. Whispers of Biden being replaced were getting louder before Trump was shot at.
Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, still has +950 odds to win the presidency since she is still by far the most likely candidate to replace Biden if that picks up steam before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month
Value in waiting
Between the universally denounced assassination attempt, and the Trump love fest at the RNC, the 2024 Presidential odds for Trump are likely as short as they are going to be.
There are bona fide reasons to believe Trump’s odds will only get longer as the election draws nearer. That means there is value in waiting to bet on Trump to win the presidency, unless you are going to make a huge wager.
News cycles move quickly, proven by the fact Trump is now more likely to win than ever despite the fact he was convicted on 34 felony charges less than two months ago. If his remaining court cases return to the public eye, or he is somehow sentenced before the election, his odds may take a hit.
Plus, Biden’s odds and polling are more likely to improve before the DNC — and if Harris ends up taking the nomination, it’ll be an entirely different race. That means Trump will have more lucrative 2024 election odds that will produce a bigger payout for less money in.
Biden Betting
If you’re not a MAGA supporter, the above may seem demoralizing to you, but there is a long way to go between now and Nov. 5.
There’s more than three-and-a-half months until Biden vs Trump Part II will produce election results. Again, Trump has a built-in favorability rating of likely voters of about 40%, and the election will likely come down to hand-counted votes in a handful of swing states.
So, all is not lost for Biden, especially if he can show some vigor at the DNC and at the upcoming debates. Plus, Harris, who is as qualified as any candidate in U.S. history, has already invited Trump VP appointee J.D. Vance to a debate, which could shake up polling numbers, too.
The 2024 Presidential odds have been evolving for months, too, and although Trump is a heavy favorite, both candidates are super-unpopular, and Trump is renowned for his ability to stir up controversy that rub voters the wrong way.
For Politics betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
Can’t get enough? Here’s more!
- 2024 Donald Trump Favorability Rating
- 2024 Post-Debate Presidential Election Update
- 2024 Presidential Election Odds
- Trump’s Post-Conviction Odds for 2024 Election
- Republican Veep Odds for U.S. President
