Politics – Governor Election Odds Ahead of 2022 US Midterms

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan Too Close to Call

The 2022 US Midterms get underway on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, with several key races at various levels of government catching the attention of oddsmakers. In this column, we pay attention to the Governor races that are too close to call, weighing in on the latest Governor Election Odds that are trading in political betting markets for additional insight.

Governor Election Odds

Pennsylvania – Incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf (Democratic Party)

Democrat Tom Wolf has resided in the Governor’s mansion since winning the seat in 2015. In 2018, he was reelected by a margin of 17.1%. But the two-term incumbent is “term limited” and can’t run for a third term in 2022. Thus, the gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania emerges as one to spot on the 2022 US Governor elections betting board.

Pennsylvania Attorney general Josh Shapiro won the Democratic Party primary earlier this year. He’ll face GOP candidate, Sen. Doug Mastriano, in the midterms this fall. By the Governor Election odds, it’s shaping up to be a close race between this pair as the Democrats are priced at -130 while the Republicans are tipped at -110.

Nevada – Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (Democratic Party)

Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak is seeking a second term in office, but Clark County Sheriff, Joe Lombardo, is hoping to flip the state back into Republican hands this fall.

Sisolak ended an almost two-decade-long Republican reign that spanned three different governors when he beat Brian Sandoval four years ago in the Nevada gubernatorial race. Sisolak is favored to keep Nevada blue, but only just as we look at the Governor Election odds. The incumbent is tipped at -130 while Lombardo nips at his heels at -110.

Michigan – Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Democratic Party)

The former House of Representatives and Senator, Gretchen Whitmer won the gubernatorial race in Michigan in 2018. The Republican candidate is yet to be determined, though the markets show a distinct lean towards the GOP. That’s interesting, to say the least.

The Michigan primaries are slated for August 2, 2022. As things currently stand, the Democrats are tipped at -105 while the Republicans are tipped at -135.

Kansas – Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (Democratic Party)

Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly is running for re-election in 2022. Arlyn Braggs and Derek Schmidt are the Republican candidates running in the GOP primary on August 2, 2022.

As things currently stand, this race is neck-and-neck between the Democrats and Republicans with both pegged on -120. It’ll be interesting to see which way the needle moves after the GOP primary next month.

Which Governor Races Do Democrats Lead?

The New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts governor races are all cornered with the  Democratic party.

Incumbent NY governor Kathy Hochul is considered a runaway favorite over businessman and GOP nominee Lee Zeldin – so much so, that the odds are off the board right now.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (Republican) is term-limited and cannot run for re-election. This means the race is wide open, but the latest Governor Election Odds corner this state with the Democratic Party at -300. Democratic nominee Wes Moore will face Republican nominee Dan Cox. The Republicans are priced at +200 to retain Maryland.

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (Republican) is stepping down after announcing he would not run for a third term. The Massachusetts primary is set for September 6, 2022. State Attorney General Maura Healey will represent the Democrats in the gubernatorial race this fall where the party is expected to win as the -800 favorites. The Republicans are currently tipped at +425.

Which Governor Races Do Republicans Lead?

The Republicans are frontrunners in Georgia, Texas, and Florida as per the current odds.

Incumbent Gov. Brain Kemp (Republican) is seeking a second term in office in Georgia and he’s priced at -500 to beat challenger Stacey Abrams for the second time. The pair famously collided in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race which received national attention as Abrams became the first black woman to run for governor in the country. Kemp beat Abrams narrowly.

Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott (Republican) is seeking a third term in office. He will face Beto O’Rourke in the 2022 US Midterm elections this fall, but the odds are heavily stacked against the Democratic hopeful. So much so that the odds have come off the board at various sports betting exchanges.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a runaway favorite to win another term in the Sunshine State when voters go to the ballot box. DeSantis is a heavyweight not only in the Gubernatorial race this fall, but he’s also a legitimate contender for the US presidency in 2024. The Republicans are priced at -1100 to win Florida.

Betting on Politics

Betting on politics is a growing phenomenon around the world, and it must be said, the US political landscape draws the most attention of all the international political races at the betting exchange.

The upcoming 2022 US midterm elections might not be as big of an event as the US presidential elections – the last two of which were literally off the charts. But they’re no less important. Traditionally, midterms are viewed as a referendum on the sitting president and his party. Thus, their outcome can’t be overplayed enough.

What’s at stake? Well, power, simply put. The Democrats want to keep it. The Republicans want it back. So, should the Republicans make significant advances this fall, the impact could be huge for the Democratic party, President Joe Biden’s last two years in office, and the upcoming 2024 US Elections.

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