Trump’s Post-Conviction Odds for 2024 Election
Despite 34 Felony Convictions, Presumptive GOP Candidate Still Favored
Donald Trump is the favorite to become the next United States president. This is amidst him potentially not being legally allowed to vote in the upcoming election. Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges stemming from hush-money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 on May 30. This has shifted Trump’s post-conviction odds.
The 77-year-old (soon to be 78) is still on pace to become the first convicted felon to represent a major U.S. party in the general election. Trump’s odds to win in November took only a slight hit.
Here’s a look at how Trump’s post-conviction odds are shaping up mere days after the New York grand jury announced its ruling.
An Unprecedented Candidate
Trump’s ongoing presence and popularity are baffling if you follow U.S. politics or political betting.
Aside from the seemingly endless array of scandals, ongoing legal strife, and shady dealings with foreign powers, Trump also was impeached twice during his four-year term from 2017-21.
His first impeachment came in 2019 due to obstruction of justice and abuse of power. The second impeachment stemmed from his inciting a mob to overthrow the 2020 election on Jan. 6, 2021, which has landed many of those involved in the insurrection in prison.
Though Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both impeachments, he has been indicted and is still facing more felony charges of election interference and taking classified documents after leaving office, as well as election interference charges in Georgia.
Still, after all that, his ongoing legal Trump is a -150 favorite to retake the U.S. presidency when the election is held in November per BetUS. Those odds give Trump a 60% chance of retaking the White House.
Trump has successfully tested the inefficient U.S. legal system, which continues to move at a snail’s pace. Last week’s conviction stemmed from a case that was unveiled eight years ago, and although he has been convicted, Trump’s appeal in the case could delay any sentencing and consequences until after the election in November.
Convicted felons are barred from voting in the U.S., and although he was found guilty of 30-plus felony charges, he is unlikely to face any jail time due to the white-collar nature of his crimes — and could potentially pardon himself from all charges if he is elected.
Trump’s Opponent
Joe Biden, the incumbent candidate from the Democratic Party, has defeated Trump in a general election before. It was his win in the 2020 election that set the Jan. 6 insurrection in place, since Trump could not accept the results of Biden’s victory, calling them “rigged.”
Biden has restored some normalcy to the office after Trump’s chaotic four-year tenure. Still, Biden has about a 42% approval rating per polling. The stats site 538.com rates his current support at about 39%, which is comparable to that of Trump’s over his four years in office.
Still, given his status as the U.S. President, and the only person standing in the way of a second Trump term, BetUS gives Biden +110 odds or a 47% chance of winning re-election.
Biden and Trump will again be the two oldest candidates to ever square off in the presidential election — just as they were four years ago. Even though he is the underdog, and his support has waned since taking office, Biden has -240 odds to win the popular vote, giving him a 70.6% chance of earning more votes than Trump.
Still, the election will likely be decided by a handful of states due to the archaic Electoral College system in the United States. The Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in four straight elections, and seven of the past eight for president, despite the fact a Republican has won the office twice in that span (Trump and George W. Bush in 2000).
What’s Next
As usual, there’s no shortage of Trump news, especially in his ongoing legal affairs.
The hush-money case in New York kept him off the campaign trail, though now that that’s settled he can go back on the road and hold rallies and other events while his lawyers sort out the appeal and/or any sentencing.
The three remaining cases in which he was indicted are still awaiting trial dates, and if elected he could theoretically pardon himself from all felony charges for which he was convicted. The state case in Georgia would remain.
The odds for the Republican candidate to win the presidency (-140) are slightly less favorable than Trump’s odds of winning a second term, mainly due to the potential for these felony convictions to bar him from serving as the GOP candidate. As has been the case since Trump rose to political power, these are uncharted waters in the United States, and it’s hard to tell what is ahead.
But if you’re looking in the short term, Trump and Biden are scheduled for a televised debate on June 27 in Atlanta. The battle, which will air on CNN, could further dent Trump’s post-conviction odds since the candidate will have to answer questions about issues that matter to Americans instead of railing against unfair systems.
For Political betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
