AC Milan vs Fiorentina Match Betting Preview

Serie A Leaders Four Games Away From First Title Since 2011

Huge Implications for Title Race

Serie A leaders AC Milan continue their title pursuit as they host Fiorentina. We’ll cover the title race and the relevant factors impacting the match in this Milan vs Fiorentina match betting preview.

Despite their Coppa Italia semifinal loss to rivals Inter Milan, AC Milan have been excellent defensively in Serie A and have just four matches left to retain a two-point lead. Fiorentina will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Udinese but will have their backs against the wall at the San Siro. As a result, AC Milan come into Sunday’s match as -160 favorites.

Milan vs Fiorentina Match Betting Preview

Date/Time: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET
Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
TV: Paramount+


Last Five Serie A Meetings:

  • Nov 2021: Fiorentina 4-3 Milan
  • Mar 2021: Fiorentina 2-3 Milan
  • Nov 2020: Milan 2-0 Fiorentina
  • Feb 2020: Fiorentina 1-1 Milan
  • Sep 2019: Milan 1-3 Fiorentina

The AC Milan vs Fiorentina head-to-head has been relatively even for the past few years. The last five meetings have been split with two wins apiece and a draw. Fiorentina came out on top in a seven-goal thriller vs AC Milan back in November as current Juventus man Dusan Vlahovic scored a brace.

AC Milan have found the net in their last six matches vs Fiorentina, averaging nearly two goals per game in that span. The Rossoneri defeated Fiorentina at the San Siro 2-0 last season, but have dropped two of their last three home matches to the Viola.

AC Milan Nearing Glory

  • Serie A Position: 1st, 74 pts
  • Last Five Serie A Matches: W,W,D,D,W
  • Injuries and Suspensions: M Alessandro Florenzi (meniscus), D Simon Kjaer (ACL)

Sandro Tonali’s stoppage-time winner gave AC Milan a signature 2-1 road win over Lazio last weekend. It was a crucial result for the Rossoneri’s title chances and they’re currently in the driver’s seat in Serie A, two points ahead of rivals Inter Milan. AC Milan can completely focus on Serie A now. They are nearly completely healthy and are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.

Plus, AC Milan have kept six shutouts in their last seven Serie A matches and the pairing of Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori has been excellent. AC Milan have a more difficult remaining schedule than Inter, but face both Fiorentina and Atalanta at home. The Milan vs Fiorentina odds currently list the Rossoneri as one-goal favorites.

Fiorentina Failing to Find Net

  • Serie A Position: 7th, 56pts
  • Last Five Serie A Matches: L,L,W,W,W
  • Injuries and Suspensions: M Gaetano Castrovilli (meniscus)

Fiorentina were decimated by Udinese 4-0 on Wednesday. The Viola had a bunch of chances and 73 percent possession but couldn’t find the back of the net vs the Serie A’s 12th-place team. The loss follows a 2-1 defeat to a Salernitana team that’d be relegated if the season ended today.

In their last four matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have scored just two goals and seem to miss Vlahovic. Arthur Cabral has failed to hit the ground running while Krzysztof Piatek has failed to score in his last five appearances. Vlahovic had 17 goals in 21 appearances before departing for Juventus and no other Viola player has more than five this season.

What to Watch

AC Milan cannot afford any slip-ups in their last four matches and need all three points here while Fiorentina’s European dream is fading fast. With both Coppa Italia finalists slated to finish in the top four, the Viola just need to finish in the top six to make the Europa League this season. They’re level on points with sixth-place Lazio but have a worse goal difference.

Therefore, Milan vs Fiorentina match betting previews should note that both teams still have a lot for which to play. Rossoneri striker Olivier Giroud has come up clutch in big moments and it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the French World Cup winner get on the scoresheet here. Giroud scored in the win vs Lazio and is Milan’s joint-leading scorer along with Rafael Leao.

The last two meetings have been goal-fests but Milan haven’t conceded multiple goals in eight consecutive Serie A matches. Still, both teams have scored in four of the last five matches and the over-under goal total is set at 2½.

Even with Fiorentina’s recent slip-ups, this one could go either way, but three points from Milan would take them one step closer to their first Scudetto since 2011.

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