Serie A Matchday 12 Odds & Preview: Serie A on Saturday
Napoli and AC Milan Streaking
Strong Sides in Serie A’s Top Four
Napoli continue to look like the real deal in Serie A and got their seventh straight win last week. The rest of the league is currently playing catch up but the rest of the top four are within five points of them. Other Serie A teams outside the top four, like Roma and Inter are also looking strong as of late. Let’s take a look at all of the top four Serie A Matchday 12 odds and preview the matches.
Games of the Week:
Napoli vs. Sassuolo
Date, time (TV):
Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
With Napoli already through to the Champions League knockout stage, some key players got a rest during Tuesday’s match vs. Rangers. Andre Zambo Anguissa, Piotr Zieliński Kvicha Kharatshkelia, Victor Osimhen and Juan Jesus all started on the bench. Regardless, Giovanni Simeone scored a first half brace and Napoli won a 12th straight match in all competitions. With the 3-0 victory over Rangers, they finished on top of Group A. It’s certainly no small feat to top a group that also includes Liverpool and Ajax.
Now, Napoli host Sassuolo on Saturday in Serie A. Despite their long win streak, the Partenopei are only three points ahead of AC Milan in the Serie A table. Serie A odds price Napoli at -295 odds to record an eighth straight league win and they’ll be hoping Milan drop points. Sassuolo drew vs. AC Milan in August but are yet to record a win over a team above them in the table. So, it’s unsurprising that they sit at +750 odds to get a road win on Saturday.
Bettors should note that this has been an incredibly high scoring fixture recently. Last season, Napoli put six goals on Sassuolo at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The reverse fixture finished in a 2-2 draw. In fact, they also played to a 3-3 draw in 2021. Goals are expected once again but a draw shows just +440 odds. With Napoli scoring with ease and Sassuolo on a six-match scoring streak, it’s unsurprising over three goals is priced at -130 odds.
Empoli vs. Atalanta
Date, time (TV):
Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani
Lazio ended Atalanta’s ten-match unbeaten run to open up the season last Sunday. The 2-0 loss was also the first time Atalanta have been shut out all season. Now, they’ll head to Tuscany to try to rebound vs. Empoli on Sunday. Empoli sit well above the relegation zone, in 12th place, but have won just one of five home games this season. Meanwhile, Atalanta have won four of five on the road and are in fourth.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s Atalanta sit at -130 Serie A Matchday 12 odds to win but striker Luis Muriel is suspended. Thankfully, Duvan Zapata recently returned from a long term injury and can fill in. Midfielder Marten de Roon is listed as day-to-day but could potentially start on Sunday. Empoli, who are coming off a 4-0 loss to Juventus, are +340 underdogs.
These teams split their meetings last season, with both road teams winning. Interestingly, Empoli have lost just one of their four matches to Atalanta. Empoli have also scored in seven of their last eight games and show -220 odds to score. However, Atalanta’s defense has been one of the best in Serie A this season. Under three goals for the match comes in at -135 odds.
Lazio vs. Salernitana
Date, time (TV):
Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Speaking of good defenses, Lazio haven’t conceded in Serie A in over eight hours of play. They’ve kept six straight shutouts and haven’t allowed a Serie A goal for almost two months. Now, the Rome club are third in the Serie A standings after an impressive win over Atalanta. Lazio’s Sunday opponent Salernitana failed to score against them last season but will head to Rome hoping for the best.
Salernitana will have some hope, given Lazio’s leading scorer Ciro Immobile is out until after the World Cup. Immobile was the Serie A golden boot winner last season and losing him stings. However, his replacement Felipe Anderson was on the scoresheet vs. Atalanta last weekend. Lazio are on a roll either way and show -200 Serie A odds to win on Sunday. There were emotional scenes in Salernitana as French legend Franck Ribery retired from professional football. Salernitana went on to win 1-0 vs. Spezia but haven’t won on the road this season.
The Granata are priced at +525 odds to defeat Lazio for the first time since 1998. Bettors can take Lazio to keep a seventh straight shutout at favorable +155 odds. The Biancocelesti are also favored to cover the spread, at -125 odds.
Torino vs. AC Milan
Date, time (TV):
Location: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Despite an injury crisis, defending champions AC Milan have managed to win their last four Serie A matches. They also got a crucial 4-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League on Tuesday. A draw vs. RB Salzburg next week will be enough for Milan to go through the knockout stage. First, they head to Turin for a Sunday matchup vs. Torino.
Milan have shutout Torino in their last six meetings in all competitions. The Serie A Matchday 12 odds price another Rossoneri shutout at just +160 odds, though. Milan are also implied to have less than a 50 percent implied probability to win, at +105 odds. A couple of seasons ago, the Rossoneri humiliated Torino at the Stadio Olimpico by putting seven goals on them. However, these teams only scored one goal between them in two meetings last season.
Due to the importance of Milan’s next UCL match, Stefano Pioli may not decide to put out a full strength team
This match is expected to be low scoring as well. Under 2½ goals is priced at -140 odds but Milan have scored at least two goals in each of their last four Serie A matches. Due to the importance of Milan’s next UCL match, Stefano Pioli may not decide to put out a full strength team, though. He rested Rafael Leao, Sandro Tonali and Olivier Giroud in the recent 4-1 win over Monza. Still, Torino show just +280 odds to win.
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