Serie A Matchday 25 Odds: Local Rivals Battle

Napoli At 99 Percent Chance to Win Serie A

Local Rivals Battle for Champions League Places

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Napoli a 99 percent chance to win their first league title for 33 years. It’s certainly difficult to find sportsbooks still taking outright bets as Napoli took an 18-point lead on Matchday 24. The Partenopei have been the story of the season so far but a few rivals are battling for the remaining Champions League slots now. Milan clubs Inter and AC Milan are currently in places two and three in the league. Meanwhile, Rome rivals Lazio and Roma are in fourth and fifth. We’ll preview all of their matches as we take a look at the Serie A Matchday 25 odds.

Matches of the Week

NAPNapoli vs LazioLAZ

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Lazio moved into the top four on Monday with a 1-0 win over relegation favorites Sampdoria. The Biancocelesti didn’t play particularly well but a Luis Alberto screamer sealed all three points. Concerningly, Ciro Immobile missed three big opportunities in the match. Meanwhile, Napoli got yet another win as they defeated Empoli 2-0.

The Partenopei have won their last seven matches, in all competitions, and kept shutouts in their last five. Now, the Serie A odds price Napoli as one-goal favorites for Friday’s match. Napoli have won their last four matches vs. Lazio and have scored 3.3 goals per game in the process.

Nigerian international striker Victor Osimhen has been on fire for the Partenopei as of late. He’s scored in each of his last nine starts and his partnership with Kvicha Kvaratskhelia continues to be excellent. Napoli come into Friday’s match at +110 odds to cover the spread, while Lazio +1 sits at -130 odds.

The hosts have won an astounding 21 of 24 Serie A matches this season and are also -160 moneyline favorites. Lazio’s moneyline comes in at +450 odds, while a draw is priced at +300. Don’t necessarily expect one, though, as the last thirteen meetings have finished with a winner.

After struggling with injury problems earlier in the season, Lazio now have a clean bill of health. Backup forward Giacomo Raspadori is out with an injury for Napoli, while left back Mario Rui is suspended for the match.

Notably, Lazio’s Ivan Provedel and Napoli’s Alex Meret are joint-leaders in shutouts this season, with 12 apiece. Both goalkeepers have played exceptionally well this season and lead two of the best defenses in the league. That said, over 2½ goals still display -120 odds for the match.

ROMRoma vs JuventusJUV

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Two of Italy’s biggest clubs go head-to-head on Sunday as AS Roma host Juventus. Before then, they’ll both play their Serie A Matchday 24 games on Tuesday. Roma head to Cremonese, while Juventus host Turin in another edition of the Derby della Mole. Should Roma win, they’ll be back in the top four heading into Sunday’s match. Currently, the Serie A Matchday 25 odds price this match as a pick’em. Roma are favored to cover, at -140 odds, while visiting Juve show -120 ATS odds.

Bettors should stay on top of any injury updates between now and Sunday. In any case, Roma and Juve will both get players back from suspension in this one. Roma defender Chris Smalling will return in time for Sunday’s match, along with Juve midfielder Manuel Locatelli.

Heading into Matchday 24, both teams were also unbeaten in their last three matches. Juve are unbeaten in the last five meetings, but hosts Roma are +145 favorites here. Both teams also managed to get wins in the Europa League playoff last Thursday to advance to the round of 16. Paulo Dybala put in quite the performance for Roma in the 2-0 win over RB Salzburg. Meanwhile, Juve’s Angel di Maria scored his first hat trick for La Vecchia Signora in a 3-0 win over Nantes.

Massimiliano Allegri’s Juventus come into this match as +215 underdogs. The reverse fixture finished in a 1-1 draw and another shows +210 odds here. Notably, both defenses have conceded under a goal per game in Serie A this season. Still, Juventus have scored in their last eight matches vs. Roma and over two goals display -120 odds for Sunday’s game.

Other Top-Four Teams in Action

FIOFiorentina vs AC MilanMIL

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AC Milan got their third straight Serie A win and shutout last Sunday as they downed Atalanta, 2-0. Theo Hernandez fired a bullet that struck the post and bounced off Atalanta keeper Juan Musso and into the goal.

Junior Messias then added a second to seal the game as Zlatan Ibrahimovic made a much-awaited return to action. After previously going five league matches without a win, the defending champions are now back in third in the Serie A standings. Milan’s new-look defense, featuring youngster Malick Thiaw, conceded just one goal in the month of February.

Now, AC Milan head to Florence for a match vs. Fiorentina. The last time these teams met at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, it was a seven-goal thriller that Fiorentina won, 4-3.

The Viola also comprehensively defeated Verona 3-0 on Monday but are in just 12th place after 24 matches. With just a 4-4-4 record at home this season, Fiorentina are +190 underdogs here. Still, the spread is listed as a pick’em. AC Milan come in at -125 odds to cover, while Fiorentina pk shows +105 odds.

Due to yellow card accumulation, AC Milan’s star winger Rafael Leao is out while he serves a suspension. Leao is Milan’s leading scorer in Serie A this season and provided an assist last Sunday. Leao had also scored in his last two matches vs. Fiorentina, which both ended in AC Milan wins. Ante Rebic or Charles de Ketalaere could see more time as a result but his absence is a big blow for the Rossoneri.

Milan’s Rade Krunic is also suspended, while midfielder Ismael Bennacer is still listed as day-to-day. With Leao out, the odds imply Milan have a less than 50 percent chance to win the match. The Scudetto-holders come in at +150 moneyline odds and a draw sits at +235. None of Milan’s last four Serie A matches have gone over two goals and under 2½ displays -135 odds for Saturday’s game.

INTInter Milan vs LecceLEC

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Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan disappointingly fell 1-0 to Bologna on Matchday 24. Defenders Milan Skriniar and Federico Dimarco were both out, which forced some changes. While still in second place, the Nerazzurri will be looking for a bounce back vs. Lecce on Sunday.

Heading into the match, Inter’s injured defenders are day-to-day and so is forward Joaquin Correa. The Nerazzurri still come in as 1½-goal favorites vs. 15th-placed Lecce. The Puglian side fell 1-0 to Sassuolo last weekend but have picked up a respectable seven points in their last five matches.

The Serie A Matchday 25 odds price Inter Milan at even odds to cover the spread and -320 odds to win at the San Siro. The Nerazzurri won the reverse fixture, 2-1, and are unbeaten in the last three meetings. On the other hand, Lecce are favored to cover the spread, at -120 odds.

They’ve gotten results in recent weeks vs. Atalanta and Roma and shouldn’t be taken lightly. They’ve only lost by a two-goal margin three times this season and have kept every game vs. a top-four side within a goal margin so far.

However, Lecce defender Federico Baschirotto is out suspended for this match. That could mean former Barcelona man Samuel Umtiti gets the start at center back here. Regardless, Lecce are +900 moneyline underdogs and a draw also shows long +410 odds.

Inter’s offense has been a bit inconsistent lately as they’ve scored one goal or fewer in six of their last nine Serie A matches. Even so, over 2½ goals sit at -120 odds for Sunday’s match.
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