Serie A Matchday 28 Odds & Preview: Juve Thriving Despite Point Deduction
Leaders Napoli Host Defending Champions AC Milan

Juve Thriving Despite Point Deduction
Napoli will look to further solidify their position at the top of the Serie A table when they take on AC Milan on Sunday. The Rossoneri are the current Scudetto holders but are 23 points off the pace and are fighting just for a Champions League place. Ten days later, Napoli and AC Milan will also meet in the first leg of the Champions league quarterfinals.
Some other big stories in Serie A include Lazio’s rise to second place and win over Roma in the Derby della Capitale and the Juventus resurgence. If not for a 15-point deduction, Juve would be in second place and they could still qualify for the Champions League. Let’s take a look at the Serie A Matchday 28 odds and the most important games of the weekend.
Match of the Week
Napoli continue to close in on their first Serie A title since 1990 and face a formidable foe in AC Milan this weekend. The Partenopei have compiled an incredible 23-2-2 record in Serie A this season and are one of the Champions League favorites as well. Recent Serie A game predictions rarely recommend betting against Napoli to get anything other than three points in their matches. They boast both the Serie A goals and assists leaders on their squad. Victor Osimhen has found the net 21 times this season, while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has dished out 10 assists.
AC Milan will head to Naples without a win in their last three Serie A games and are .0.5-goal underdogs for Sunday’s match. The Rossoneri come in at +115 odds to cover, while Napoli sit at both -135 ATS and moneyline odds. Interestingly, Milan are unbeaten in their last three trips to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. In their title-winning season, Milan got a crucial 1-0 win but are +390 moneyline underdogs here. Milan defender Pierre Kalulu got injured during the recent international break and figures to miss this match.
Kalulu has been a key member of the Milan backline and also figures to miss the first leg of the UCL quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Napoli’s starting XI is fit and available for selection. None of the last five meetings between these teams have finished in draws, but a deadlock displays +270 odds here.
It’ll be interesting to see if Luciano Spalletti fields his best XI for Napoli with two key UCL matches vs. the same opponent coming up. With a 19-point lead in Serie A, the Partenopei can afford to drop points. Still, Napoli have looked motivated in nearly every match they’ve played this season and defeating AC Milan always confers bragging rights. In what could be a defensive battle, under 2.5 goals show -125 odds.
Other Important Matches`
Italian teams have thrived in the Champions League this season. Like AC Milan and Napoli, Inter also qualified for the UCL quarterfinals and take on Benfica in a couple weeks’ time. Although they’ve done well in the UCL, Simone Inzaghi’s Inter have stumbled in Serie A recently. They’ve lost three of their last five matches despite being favored to win all of them. Two of those losses were to lowly Spezia and Bologna. Now, Inter host the hottest team in Serie A, Fiorentina.
The Viola have won their last four matches and have conceded just two goals in their last five. Regardless, Inter are expected to get back on track here and the Serie A Matchday 28 odds price them as one-goal favorites for this match.
The Nerazzurri show +125 odds to cover, while Fiorentina come in at -145 ATS odds. Inter are also dealing with multiple injury issues across their back line heading into this match. Milan Skriniar, Alessandro Bastoni and Federico Dimarco are all day-to-day. Meanwhile, Danilo D’Ambrosio is suspended for Inter’s next two Serie A matches.
Third-placed Inter are just three points ahead of fifth-placed Roma and the Nerazzurri certainly need a win here. Should their rough run of form continue, they could drop out of the Champions League places altogether.
Playing at the San Siro, Inter do display -150 odds to win this match, while Fiorentina are +400 moneyline underdogs. Inter are also unbeaten in their last 13 matches vs. Fiorentina, in all competitions but did draw with the Viola at the San Siro last season. The oddsmakers price another draw at +310 odds, while over 2.5 goals sit at -115 odds.
Last time out, Juventus got a key win over rivals Inter Milan in the Derby d’Italia. Seventh-placed Juve are now just seven points behind AC Milan for the fourth and final Champions League place. Massimiliano Allegri’s side have won six of their last seven Serie A matches and breezed through to the Europa League quarterfinals.
In Serie A this weekend, La Vecchia Signora take on relegation-threatened Hellas Verona. Verona are winless in their last five games and are currently five points from safety.
With just 11 matches remaining, Verona need to start picking up points to avoid the drop. However, the Serie A betting odds price the visitors as one-goal underdogs for Saturday’s match. Juve, led by the contributions of Angel di Maria and Dusan Vlahovic this season, sit at -230 odds to win a third straight Serie A match.
They’ll be missing Adrien Rabiot in midfield though, as the French international is suspended. Leandro Paredes is also suspended for Juve but he’s played more of a bench role this season, regardless. In better news for Juve, forward Arkadiusz Milik looks set to return from injury vs. Verona.
Juve -1 comes in at -130 odds, while Hellas Verona +1 shows +110 odds. Last time out, Verona lost to (then last-placed) Sampdoria 3-1 and they’ve scored just twice in their last five games. They’ve won just four matches this season and have no wins vs. top-half teams thus far.
Juve have won the last two meetings and picked up a 1-0 result in the reverse fixture. Hellas are +775 underdogs and road wins in this fixture on both sides have been incredibly rare. Verona haven’t picked up a win in Turin for the last 35 years. A draw displays +325 odds, while under 2.5 goals come in at -140 odds. Juve have one of the best defensive records in the league and have conceded just 22 goals in 27 matches.
As we enter the final stages of the Serie A season, the relegation battle will become more of a focus. On Sunday, two teams fighting to avoid the drop will face off as Spezia host Salernitana. Salernitana, who are in 16th place, have bought themselves some breathing room, with a four-game unbeaten run. During that span, they’ve picked up a win and three draws. Meanwhile, 17th place Spezia managed a big win over Inter Milan a few weeks back but are just five points clear of the relegation zone.
The Serie A Matchday 28 odds list hosts Spezia as ½-goal favorites this weekend. The Ligurian side come in at +125 ATS and moneyline odds and hold a 3-7-4 record at home this season. Their home matches have been quite low scoring this season, as they’ve scored 15 times and conceded 20 goals. Spezia’s chances could also take a hit as leading scorer M’Bala Nzola is suspended for the match.
The Angolan striker has scored 12 of Spezia’s 23 league goals this season and Eldor Shomurodov could take his place. Given Spezia’s key absence, oddsmakers price Salernitana +0.5 at -145 odds.
Salernitana have managed to pick up points on the road on seven occasions but have just two wins in 13 tries. The Granata sit at +225 odds to win and lost 2-1 in La Spezia last year. Undoubtedly, neither team would be too disappointed with a draw and a tie is priced at +240 odds.
Salernitana’s Boulaye Dia has reached double digits in goals this season but Salernitana aren’t a high scoring team either. Under 2.5 goals come in at -130 odds in what’s expected to be a defensive battle.
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