Serie A Back in Action
The Serie A kicks off its 2022-23 season on August 13th and it’ll be hard to top last season’s drama. In a title race that came down to the final day, AC Milan won their first championship since 2011. They beat out their biggest rivals, Inter Milan, last season but the odds have taken some interesting twists in recent months. We’ll go over all of the key betting odds in this Serie A La Liga season preview.
The Favorites Serie A winner odds
Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan had an excellent season last year but AC Milan outlasted them. Inter won the Scudetto in 2020-21 and their Serie A winner odds have moved from +190 to +175. One catalyst for the positive move is Romelu Lukaku’s return on loan from Chelsea, where he flopped last season.
Lukaku’s best seasons have been in Serie A, though, where he scored 47 goals in 72 matches from 2019 to 2021. If he can recapture his form, Inter will be tough to beat this season. The Nerazzurri have had the league’s best goal difference for two seasons running and have an excellent back line.
Juventus have made some interesting offseason moves and their odds have improved from +200 to 185. The Old Lady brought back Paul Pogba and signed winger Angel di Maria on a free transfer. They also splashed the cash for former Torino defender Gleison Bremer and signed left-back Andrea Cambiasso from Genoa.
As longtime forward Paulo Dybala left for Roma, Dusan Vlahovic will now be the centerpiece of Juve’s attack. Juventus will be hoping the young Serbian striker can help fill the void that Cristiano Ronaldo left behind in 2021. Juve has finished fourth in consecutive seasons but the expectations are a lot higher now.
Our Serie A season preview identifies defending champions AC Milan as one of the biggest negative movers on the odds board. In just a couple of months, they’ve moved from solid +225 odds to win Serie A to +400, so what happened?
Milan lost key midfielder Franck Kessie to Barcelona this Summer but the move was all but confirmed in January. On paper, the Rossoneri don’t look much worse than in 2021-22. They’ve brought in Liverpool cult hero Divock Origi to shore up their forward line, which also includes Olivier Giroud and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Crucially, Milan signed former Club Brugge attacking midfielder Charles de Ketelaere to add playmaking ability. Don’t be surprised if they’re near or at the top of the Serie A standings once again.
Napoli was challenged for the title for most of the 2021-22 season but show just +1600 odds in 2022-23. They lost longtime captain Lorenzo Insigne to Toronto FC in MLS and all-time top scorer Dries Mertens. Plus, their defensive lynchpin Kalidou Koulibaly left for Chelsea.
Now, the Partenopei are underdogs to make the top four, at +175 odds. They’ve been leapfrogged by a resurgent AS Roma, who our Serie A season preview identifies as the biggest positive movers on the odds board. Roma opened the Summer at +1600 Serie A odds and sits at +800 odds now after adding some standouts.
Roma won the inaugural UEFA Europa Conference League under Jose Mourinho and is carrying momentum into the season. Paulo Dybala has moved from Juventus to Roma and is closing in on 100 career Serie A goals. Meanwhile, Mourinho also brought in center midfielder Nemanja Matic on a free transfer.
Atalanta had a disappointing season in 2021-22 and finished in eighth place in Serie A. As a result, they missed out on the UEFA competition entirely. So, Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have an advantage over other top four rivals. They’ll be able to focus all of their attention on Serie A.
Regardless, they’re still +200 top four underdogs and are +2000 Serie A dark horses. Atalanta finished third in three straight seasons from 2018-19 to 2020-21 and still has a strong roster. They’re one of the more intriguing picks on the odds board.
Golden Boot contender Ciro Immobile is still with Lazio despite some offseason rumors. Lazio was leaky defensively last season and sits at +500 top four and +5000 Serie A odds. They seemed to struggle to balance Europa League and Serie A competition last season and the Biancocelesti will have to do the same in 2022-23.
Fiorentina is +8000 longshots to win the Serie A title but could be one of the leading contenders in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The Viola finished eight points outside of the top four in 2022 and is priced at +800 odds to make the UCL.
The race for the Capocannoniere, or Golden Boot, appears to be wide open. Ciro Immobile won the award last season but no player has done it back-to-back since Antonio di Natale in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Immobile, who scored 27 times in 31 matchups, is priced at +400 odds to win again.
Inter Milan’s Romelu Lukaku and Juve’s Dusan Vlahovic are the favorites at +330 each. Lukaku has scored over 20 goals in both of his previous Serie A seasons, while Vlahovic narrowly missed out on the award last year. They’re both on teams who are likely to compete for the Serie A title. Although, no player from a title-winning side has won the award since Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2008-09.
Lautaro Martínez, another Inter striker, could hinder Lukaku’s chances to take home the Capocannoniere. Martinez scored 21 times last season and has +800 odds of his own to be the top scorer.
Tammy Abraham is one of the more interesting selections on the odds board. The Englishman hit the ground running at AS Roma last season and shows a +1200 price to win the Golden Boot. He’s Jose Mourinho’s main man up front and should benefit from playing with Paulo Dybala.
Other players with chances better than 20-to-1 are Victor Osimhen, at +1400, and Duvan Zapata, at +1800 odds. Osimhen will have to step up if Napoli is to come anywhere close to the Serie A title. Especially so with Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne was gone. Duvan Zapata struggled with injury last season but has the ability to challenge for the award.
As always, relegation markets are tough to predict correctly but there are a few favorites, and the La Liga season preview helps to sort them out. Salernitana barely escaped relegation last season and is the most likely team to go down, at -230 odds. Newcomers Cremonese is short on household names and is priced at -160 to get relegated.
Spezia’s transfer ban was thrown out the window but they’re still the third-most likely team to go down, at +140. Thiago Motta’s team has outperformed expectations in each of the last two seasons. Lecce, who won Serie B in 2021-22, sits at +150 odds and has resorted to a bunch of small-time signings in a bid to stay up.
One of the surprises of last season, Empoli has odds of +320 to go down. Their late-season form in 2021-22 may be cause for concern. Sampdoria, at +320, and Bologna, at +500, are also contenders to go down but they’ve both survived in the top flight for a handful of years.
The most surprising result on the odds board is Monza. They’re playing their first Serie A season in 2022-23 but are expected to escape relegation, at +750 odds to go down. In fact, they even have an outside shot at making the top four, at +1200. That’s because they’ve brought in Italian internationals Matteo Pessina and Gianluca Caprari on loan, among other signings.Follow us on Twitter