Underachieving Napoli Winless in Last Five Games
European Implications Spelled Out in Fiorentina vs. Napoli Preview
Successful Week for Fiorentina
Last week, Fiorentina qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League Final for a second straight season. The Viola also beat Monza 2-13 on Monday to go ahead of Friday’s opponents Napoli in the Serie A standings. Napoli, who won the Scudetto last season, have underachieved this campaign and are in danger of missing out on European competition entirely next season. We’ll spell out the UEFA implications and check out the odds in our Fiorentina vs Napoli preview.
Fiorentina vs Napoli Game Info
Game: Fiorentina vs. Napoli
Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy
Date & Time: Friday, May 17th, 2:45 p.m. ET
Head-to-Head:
Napoli defeated Fiorentina 3-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana Semifinal in Saudi Arabia back in January. Alessio Zerbin, who is now on loan at Monza, scored twice for the Partenopei. This has been a relatively even fixture over the last few seasons, though, as both teams are 2-2-2 in the last six meetings, in all competitions.
Our Fiorentina vs. Napoli preview notes the Viola have lost just one of their last four games vs. Napoli on the Serie A schedule. In the reverse fixture this season, second half goals from Giacomo Bonaventura and Nicolas Gonzalez powered Fiorentina to a 3-1 victory.
Viola Complete Comeback
Fiorentina can ensure they finish ahead of ninth-placed Napoli, and at least in eighth place in the Serie A table, with a victory on Friday. If Fiorentina win the Conference League Final on May 29th, they’ll qualify for the Europa League regardless. The Viola, who have a game in hand, are also six points behind seventh-placed Lazio. With five Serie A teams in the Champions League next season, seventh is enough for a UEL berth and eighth place will make the Conference League.
The Viola did themselves a huge favor on Monday by taking down Monza 2-1 in Florence. Antonin Barak made the most of a rare start by providing two assists. Fiorentina fell behind early on to a Milan Djuric header but Nico Gonzalez and Arthur Melo helped complete the comeback. Last Wednesday’s 1-1 draw vs. Club Brugge was also enough for Fiorentina to advance to the Conference League Final with a narrow 4-3 aggregate victory.
Notably, both teams have scored in each of Fiorentina’s last six games, in all competitions. The Viola have averaged 2.2 goals per game in their last five Serie A games. Gonzalez just reached the ten goal mark in the league and he’s the only Fiorentina player with double digit goals. Forward Riccardo Sottil is the only Fiorentina player on the injury report.
Napoli: Underperforming Betting Pick
A look at the S.S.C. Napoli standings is quite shocking given what they achieved last season. Napoli, who have played one more game than Fiorentina, are in ninth place and two points behind the Viola with two games remaining. The Partenopei fell 2-0 to Bologna on Saturday and Napoli have conceded in 15 straight Serie A games. Since Kim Min-jae departed for Bayern Munich last Summer, Napoli have been quite shaky defensively.
Napoli are on a five game winless run in Serie A and they’ve failed to cover the goal line in each of those matches. They’ve been a disappointing pick for betting all season and they’re at serious risk of missing out on European competition entirely. They’d need to finish in eighth place to have a shot to make the Conference League and are out of the running for the UCL and UEL.
Despite Napoli’s poor form, star striker Victor Osimhen has scored four goals in his last six games. He and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has scored 10 times this season, are likely to leave the club at season’s end. Piotr Zielinski, who is joining Inter Milan in the Summer, is out injured.
Match Analysis & Odds
Our Fiorentina vs Napoli preview notes Napoli have been favored to win in each of their last seven games. However, the Partenopei have won just one of those matches. Fiorentina, on a run of good form, are +155 favorites here but the lines are tight.
Napoli are +165 underdogs and a draw sits at +250. A draw would mean Fiorentina would have to win just one of their remaining two matches to finish ahead of Napoli. Fiorentina have also played reasonably well at home this season, with a 10-4-4 record at the Artemio Franchi.
In this pick’em, bettors can back Fiorentina pk at -115 or Napoli pk at -105 odds. While Napoli have struggled vs. everyone lately, they do seem to pick up their game quite a bit when taking on the top teams in the league. With both teams conceding quite a bit, over 2.5, 3 goals at -110 odds certainly isn’t the worst pick this weekend.
For Serie A betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
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