Nations League Semifinal: Panama vs Mexico Expert Pick
Gold Cup Final Rematch & It's A Solid Watch!

Panama in Superb Form
Panama has been one of the biggest surprises in CONCACAF over the last few years. They destroyed Costa Rica in the Nations League Quarter-Final to set up a 2023 Gold Cup Final rematch on Thursday vs. Mexico.
Mexico have not been at their best recently, while Panama is unbeaten in their last seven games. With a spot in Sunday’s CONCACAF Nations League final on the line, we’ll give our Panama vs Mexico Expert Pick.
Panama vs Mexico
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, USA
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Panama vs Mexico H2H:
In last July’s Gold Cup final, it took Mexico 88 minutes to break the deadlock vs. Panamá. Santiago Gimenez scored a solo goal to hand Mexico their 12th Gold Cup title.
Panama has remained competitive with Mexico in each of the last four meetings, which includes a CONCACAF Nations League game. In the 2022-23 Nations League third-place play-off, Mexico also defeated Panamá 1-0.
Panama hasn’t defeated Mexico since 2013 and is just 2-6-18 vs. Mexico all-time. Still, the last four fixtures have been decided by one goal or have finished all square.
Panama Making History
In the November 2023 CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-Final, Panama went up against rivals Costa Rica. Prior to 2022, this was a fixture Costa Rica had historically dominated, with double Panama’s wins.
In the first leg of the Quarters, Panama took just four minutes to get on the scoresheet as Amir Murillo scored a free kick. Los Canaleros went on to score twice more, through Jose Fajardo and Cecilio Waterman as they got their biggest-ever win over Costa Rica.
In the second leg, Panama went up 3-0 once again and Fajardo scored for a second straight match. Costa Rica got a consolation goal but Panama won 6-1 on aggregate. Their five game winning streak vs. their rivals is the longest in their history.
Panama seems to be closing the gap between them and the CONCACAF elite and they made the Gold Cup final last Summer. En route, Panama defeated AFC Asian Cup champions Qatar 4-0 and took down the USA in penalties.
Plus, Los Canaleros also finished in first place in the League A, Group A CONCACAF Nations League standings. They went 3-1-0 with nine goals scored and just two conceded. In fact, Panama has conceded just three goals in their last six internationals. They’ll be hurt by the absence of Murillo here but they’ve been playing with a lot of confidence, regardless.
Mexico Survive Scare
Mexico fell 2-0 to Honduras in the first leg of the Nations League Quarter-Final. Heading back to the Aztecs, El Tri needed a three goal victory to automatically advance to the Semis. Mexico put the pressure on early on and Luis Chavez managed to score a free kick in the 43rd minute.
Mexico remained on the front foot but couldn’t manage to get a second goal with second half stoppage time approaching. In the 11th minute of stoppage time, Edson Alvarez dramatically scored as Mexico forced extra time.
Honduras went down to nine men in extra time but stayed afloat until penalties. In the shootout, Mexico scored all four of their penalties in a 4-2 victory. It’s unclear whether Gold Cup winning coach Jaime Lozano would have continued as El Tri’s coach had Mexico not advanced.
The last few years have been disappointing for Mexico, aside from the 2023 Gold Cup win, and they’re only 1-2-4 vs. archrivals USA in the 2020s.
The only notable absence from Lozano’s squad is striker Raul Jimenez, who recently returned from an injury. Guillermo Ochoa is back in goal and Mexico’s most exciting young talent is striker Santiago Gimenez.
Gimenez has scored 21 goals in 25 Eredivisie appearances this season but his record for the national team isn’t as prolific. Gimenez has scored four goals in 24 caps and this is an excellent opportunity for him with Jimenez out.
Panama vs Mexico Analysis & Odds
Our Panama vs Mexico Expert Pick considers the fact that El Tri is on a 14-game unbeaten run vs. Panamá. Still, Panama has played Mexico quite closely over the last few meetings.
For Thursday’s Nations League Semifinal, Panama is +400 underdogs and they have just two wins in 26 previous meetings. Mexico, who were shaky over two legs vs. Honduras, are -140 favorites.
El Tri did manage to put things together in last year’s Gold Cup and only conceded one goal in six matches. Each of the four defenders who started in the final vs. Panama is available on Thursday and Mexico is tough to score against when focused.
Still, over two goals do display -140 CONCACAF Nations League odds here. A draw (+260) wouldn’t come as too much of a surprise as neither team tends to leave themselves exposed defensively.
Bettors can also back Panamá +0.5, +1 at -120 odds and Mexico -0.5, +1 at -105.
Expert Pick:
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