UEFA Euro Qualifiers: Italy vs England Odds
Powerhouses Renew Rivalry
Euro 2020 Finalists Meet in Euro 2024 Qualifying
A lot has changed since Italy defeated England in penalties in the Euro 2020 final, which was played in July 2021. Italy missed out on a second consecutive World Cup and Giorgio Chiellini retired internationally, for starters. These teams also met twice in the UEFA Nations League and Italy had the upper hand, with a win and a draw. Now, they’re grouped together in qualifiers for the 2024 European Championship along with Ukraine, Malta and North Macedonia. Each team will play their group mates twice, once home and once away. We’ll take a look at the Italy vs England odds for Thursday’s match as the Azzurri host the Three Lions in Naples.
UEFA Euro Qualifiers
Italy vs England
Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy
England’s record vs Italy over the past decade has been dreadful. They’ve managed four 90 minute draws and two losses. One of those draws ended in a PK shootout loss for the Three Lions in the Euro 2020 final. England defeated Italy in a 2012 friendly but haven’t beaten the Azzurri in a major competitive match since a 1977 FIFA World Cup qualifier. Only one of the last six meetings between these two sides have finished with more than two goals. Most recently, Italy came away victorious vs England last September as Giacomo Raspadori scored the game’s only goal. The Italy vs England odds priced the Azzurri at +160 to win in that match.
Up and Down Italy Striving for Consistency
- Next Match: March 26th at Malta
- Key Injuries: D Emerson Palmieri, F Ciro Immobile, F Giacomo Raspadori
Despite the disappointment of missing out on the World Cup, Italy won a difficult group in the recent UEFA Nations League. The Azzurri went 3-2-1 in a group with England, Germany and Hungary to advance to June’s semifinals. Euro 2020-winning coach Roberto Mancini is still at the helm and he named a relatively strong side to take on England and Malta in the first set of Euro 2024 qualifiers.
Italy are widely expected to finish in the top two of the Group C UEFA Euro Qualifiers standings. Should the defending European champions qualify, it’d mark their eighth straight appearance at the Euros. While there aren’t many questions about Italy’s midfield, with Marco Verratti, Jorginho and Nico Barella in the squad, goalscoring could prove to be an issue. With Ciro Immobile out, no player in the current squad has scored 10 or more international goals. Promising Napoli forward Giacomo Raspadori is also out due to injury. Expect SC Freiburg’s Vincenzo Grifo to get another chance here, as he’s scored four goals in eight caps for Italy.
Winger Federico Chiesa is also healthy following an ACL injury and caused England a ton of problems in the Euro 2020 final. Left back Leonardo Spinazzola, who made the Euro 2020 team of the tournament, is also fully recovered from an Achilles injury. Without Giorgio Chiellini in the team anymore, Mancini needs to find his best defensive lineup. Last November, the trio of Leonardo Bonucci, Francesco Acerbi and Federico Gatti conceded twice in a loss to Austria. The 19-year old Atalanta prodigy Giorgio Scalvini could get an opportunity to slot in here.
Not Many Surprises in England Squad
- Next Match: March 26th vs Ukraine
- Key Injuries: M Mason Mount, F Raheem Sterling, F Marcus Rashford
Gareth Southgate has entered his seventh year as England manager and has been the most successful recent Three Lions boss. Despite the lack of silverware, England reached the final of Euro 2020 and the 2018 World Cup semifinals under Southgate. His contract runs out after the Euros, so this campaign may be his last. To kick off qualifiers, Southgate played it safe and called upon players he trusts. The back four that started in the recent 2-1 World Cup quarterfinals loss to France could be unchanged. John Stones could pair up with Harry Maguire in the heart of defense as they’re flanked by Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw.
The midfield could look very similar to the starting trio from the World Cup as well. Jordan Henderson, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham are all available for selection. Mason Mount, who lost his starting spot at the World Cup following a 0-0 draw to the USA, was forced by Chelsea to withdraw from March’s squad. Southgate is also dealing with a couple of injuries to key forwards. Marcus Rashford, who was England’s joint-leading scorer at Qatar 2022, is a late scratch from the squad due to injury. Raheem Sterling is also out for this round of qualifiers.
Bukayo Saka was England’s other joint-leading scorer at the World Cup and is available to play. The Arsenal man has had an incredible season for the Premier League leaders. He recently became the first EPL player to reach 10 goals and 10 assists in the 2022-23 season. Of course, England’s main man is Harry Kane, who is their all-time leading scorer. Kane’s last performance in an England shirt featured a crucial penalty miss and it’ll be interesting to see how the Tottenham man responds.
Match Analysis and Odds:
Bettors have come to expect that Italy vs England fixtures will be close games. The last 11 matchups have finished all square or only been decided by one goal. The Italy vs England odds for Thursday’s match unsurprisingly list it as a pick’em. Something that may come as a surprise is that England are favorites. The Three Lions come in at -140 odds to cover, while the Azzurri show just +110 odds. England last won on Italian soil in 1961 but display relatively short +145 odds to get a win here. It’s true that England have more dangerous players in attack but breaking down an Italian defense is never an easy task.
Along with Saka and Kane, Southgate can choose between Phil Foden and Jack Grealish on the left wing. In-form Brentford striker Ivan Toney is also available for selection and only Kane and Erling Haaland have more EPL goals than him this season. The soccer odds price over two goals at -140 odds and one thing to note is that Italy have only failed to score at home once since 2018. The last five meetings have finished with two or fewer goals, though. Although England’s attack is more accomplished than Italy’s, players like Wilfried Gnonto, Domenico Berardi, Matteo Politano and Gianluca Scamacca can all put in a shift for Mancini.
Italy come in at +195 odds to win this match but were just 2-1-1 at home in 2022. Truth be told, neither England nor Italy were great in 2022. England were woeful in the UEFA Nations League, with just a 0-3-3 record but did manage to reach the World Cup quarterfinals. Neither team would be too upset if this match finishes in a draw. Four of the last meetings have ended level and another draw sits at +215 odds here.