ATP BNP Paribas Open Betting Odds & Draw Analysis
Alcaraz Leads Charge, Medvedev Favored, Fritz Eyes Title Defense
It’s all about the ATP BNP Paribas Open betting market, with the first of nine ATP 1000 events of the year set to dominate the tennis action at the sportsbook exchange over the next two weeks. As ever, we bring you helpful insight as we preview the 128-player draw and weigh in on the outright tennis odds.
With World No. 1 Novak Djokovic forced to withdraw from the tournament, World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz leads the charge in the Californian desert as the No. 1 seed. Interestingly, the teen phenom, tipped at +600, isn’t the top favorite according to the ATP betting odds. That domain belongs to World No. 6 Daniil Medvedev, who is in red-hot form and brings a 14-match winning streak, capped off by three consecutive titles, to the Californian desert. With that kind of form behind the Russian, it is hard to question his status as the player to beat at +250, indeed.
In the meantime, defending champion Taylor Fritz registers among the Top 10 best bets in the ATP BNP Paribas Open betting market. However, as the distant sixth overall favorite at +2200, he’s expected to have his work cut out to win a second consecutive Indian Wells title.
|Last Updated: 3/8/2023||Odds|
|1. Daniil Medvedev||+250|
|2. Carlos Alcaraz||+600|
|3. Stefanos Tsitsipas||+800|
|4. Jannik Sinner||+1000|
|5. Holger Rune||+2000|
|6. Andrey Rublev||+2200|
|7. Taylor Fritz||+2200|
|8. Felix Auger||+2200|
|9. Alex De Minaur||+2800|
|10. Alexander Zverev||+3300|
|11. Casper Ruud||+3300|
|12. Cameron Norrie||+3300|
|13. Hubert Hurkacz||+3300|
|14. Tommy Paul||+4000|
|15. Matteo Berrettini||+4000|
|16. Frances Tiafoe||+5000|
|17. Andy Murray||+5000|
|18. Jiri Lehecka||+5000|
|19. Yibing Wu||+6600|
|20. Karen Khachanov||+6600|
|21. Stan Wawrinka||+8000|
|22. Denis Shapovalov||+8000|
|23. Jack Draper||+8000|
|24. Borna Coric||+8000|
|25. Ben Shelton||+10000|
|26. Grigor Dimitrov||+10000|
|27. Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina||+10000|
|28. Maxime Cressy||+10000|
|29. Pablo Carreno Busta||+10000|
|30. Roberto Bautista Agut||+10000|
|31. Yoshito Nishioka||+10000|
|32. Miomir Kecmanovic||+12500|
|33. Daniel Evans||+12500|
|34. J.J. Wolf||+15000|
|35. Dominic Thiem||+15000|
|36. Lorenzo Sonego||+15000|
|37. Emil Ruusuvuori||+15000|
|38. Brandon Nakashima||+15000|
|39. Lorenzo Musetti||+15000|
|40. Mackenzie McDonald||+15000|
|41. John Isner||+15000|
|42. Tallon Griekspoor||+15000|
|43. Marcos Giron||+15000|
|44. Alexander Bublik||+15000|
|45. Bernabe Zapata Miralles||+20000|
BNP Paribas Open Draw Analysis
Below we preview each quarter, looking at the path the top seeds face to reach the quarterfinal round. Then, we provide some way-too-early predictions for the semis and final rounds.
First Quarter: Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime Headline
World No. 2 and top seed Alcaraz is only playing his third tournament of the 2023 ATP tennis schedule. The 19-year-old Spaniard missed the first month with an injury. Then, following back-to-back tournaments during the South American swing, which culminated with a title in Buenos Aires and a runner-up finish at the Rio Open, the 19-year-old Spaniard withdrew from Acapulco with a leg injury.
Alcaraz gets a bye into the R64, where he’ll face the winner of the R128 matchup between wild card Brandon Holt and a qualifier. In the R32, Alcaraz’s possible challengers include No. 31 seed Tallon Griekspoor. Thiago Monteiro or Guido Pella. The highest seeded threat that could emerge in the R16 is compatriot and No. 15 seed Pablo Carreno Busta. Dark horse Andy Murray, Jack Draper, Daniel Evans, or Tomas Martin Etcheverry are other possible fourth round opponents that could shake this section of the draw up.
No. 8 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime flanks the bottom of the first quarter. His section includes No. 9 seed Hubert Hurkacz, No. 17 seed Tommy Paul, who reached the Acapulco final, and No. 27 seed Francisco Cerundolo. On paper, this is a tough section that could deliver a few surprises.
Auger-Aliassime will face the winner of Pedro Martinez versus Marc-Andrea Huesler. While Cerundolo, American wild card Jack Sock or Gregoire Barrere are potential R32 challengers. If the draw falls in line with the seeding, Hurkacz is slated to meet the Canadian in the R16. However, in-form Paul, American hopeful Michael Mmoh and Quentin Halys are just some of the players that could come through instead.
First Quarterfinal Matchup: Alcaraz vs Paul
Second Quarter: Fritz and Rune Headline
Defending champion Fritz falls into a loaded second quarter that includes No.7 Holger Rune , the highest seeded threat in his path to the quarterfinals and one of the top contenders to win the title as per the Paribas Open betting odds..
Fritz will open his title-defense campaign against either Fabio Fognini or rising American sensation Ben Shelton. In the R32, Fritz’ could come up against No. 30 Sebastian Baez, Ymer Mikael or a qualifier.
Acapulco champion and No. 16 seed Alex De Minaur or No. 18 seed Borna Coric are the highest seeded opponents in Fritz’s path to the quarterfinals. However, American J.J. Wolf, Alex Molcan, Márton Fucsovics and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are other contenders that could emerge in the R16.
Rune’s path to the final eight is more daunting with No. 11 seed Jannik Sinner slated as a possible R16 opponent. Before the Danish teenager can look that far ahead, though, he has more immediate threats. In the R64, Filip Krajinovic or Mackenzie MacDonald will test Rune. Then, No. 26 Miomir Kecmanovic, Stanislas Wawrinka or a qualifier will stand in his way in the R32..
Second Quarterfinal Matchup: Shelton vs Rune
Third Quarter: Ruud and Medvedev Headline
Medvedev is coming off title wins in Rotterdam, Qatar and Dubai. Of all the players in the draw, he’s in the best form right now, which explains his favorable outlook for the Paribas Open Betting Odds outrights.
Medvedev’s opener will feature one of two Americans – veteran John Isner or the 2022 NextGen champion Brandon Nakashima. In the R32, Ilya Ivashka, Roman Safiullin or No. 28 Botic Van de Zandschulp are possible opponents for the Russian. Then, the fourth round could serve up a blockbuster showdown against No. 12 Alexander Zverev, No.22 Roberto Bautista Agut, Emil Ruusuvuori, Constant Lestienne, Pedro Cachin or Nikoloz Basilashvili.
No. 3 see Ruud is the highest seed in the third quarter, but the odds are stacked against him after the disappointing start to his 2023 campaign. The Norwegian is yet to find form.
Ruud will open his bid against the winner of Federico Coria vs Diego Schwartzman. In the R32, dangerous floater and No. 29 seed Yoshito Nakashima lurks as a possible opponent.
Things could get a lot tougher for Ruud in the R16, where No. 13 Karen Khachanov, No. 23 Alexander Davidovich-Fokina are the highest seeded threats in his path to the quarterfinals. However, Laslo Djere, Oscar Otte, Yibing Wu and Jaume Munar are other potential R16 opponents that could make it interesting.
Third Quarterfinal Matchup: Ruud vs Zverev
Fourth Quarter: Tsitsipas and Rublev Headline
World No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas, priced as the third-best bet at +800 on the ATP BNP Paribas Open Betting Odds board, falls into a wide open fourth quarter that is flanked by No. 6 seed Andrey Rublev.
Tsitsipas will begin his bid in the R64 against either Gael Monfils or Jordan Thompson. Then , big-serving American and No. 32 seed Maxime Cressy looms as the biggest threat in his path to the R16. Things could get very interesting for the Greek in the fourth round, where No. 14 seed Frances Tiafoe hopes to fly the American flag. Alternatively, veteran Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Sonego, Jason Kubler, Marcos Giron or Aleksandar Kovacevic.
Rublev could be challenged right off the bat if Jiri Lehecka advances at the expense of Arthur Rinderknech in the R128. If the Russian overcomes the rising Czech star, he’ll take on either No. 25 seed Denis Shapovalov, Ugo Humbert or Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the R32. No. 20 seed Matteo Berrettini lurks as a potential R16 opponent, along with No. 10 seed and Rio Open champion Cameron Norrie. Outsiders Alexander Bublik, Roberto Carballes Baena and a couple of qualifiers could shake things up here however.Follow us on Twitter