ATP Roland Garros Odds: Favorites Alcaraz and Djokovic Could Meet in a Star-Studded Semifinal
French Open Field Could Be Wide Open Without 14-Time Champion Rafael Nadal
Can An American Reach the French Open Finals for the First Time Since 1999?
Even before the first point of the main draw was played, there was quite the buzz created when Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz landed in the same half of the draw. Still, the ATP Roland Garros odds list Alcaraz and Djokovic as the front-runners.
The other big news came when 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal announced that he would be unable to play in the tournament he has dominated.
If Djokovic stumbles or fails to get by Alcaraz, it would mark the first time since 2004 that there would be a men’s singles final at Roland Garros without Djokovic, Nadal, or Roger Federer.
One of the most interesting first-round matches features crafty veteran Fabio Fognini meeting up with No. 10 seed Fliex Auger-Aliassime. Also, keep an eye on the David Goffin-Hubert Hurkacz matchup. The always-entertaining Gael Monfils of France could meet up with Holger Rune in the second round. Fellow French star Richard Gasquet has a chance to face American Taylor Fritz in the second round.
Fritz has had a strong showing in Geneva. Will that carry over to the French Open as he looks to become the first American-born player in the men’s final at Roland Garros since Andre Agassi in 1999?
Here’s a look at the top contenders.
Alcaraz didn’t plan it that way, but he did get some extra rest for himself as the ATP Roland Garros odds list him as the favorite.
Alcaraz had won three of his previous four tournaments with nine wins over top-20 players heading into the Italian Open.
After a routine win over No. 72 Albert Ramos-Vinolas, his run ended with a straight-set victory over 135th-ranked Fabian Marozsan in the Round of 32. Even with that loss, he ascended to the No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings.
Alcaraz, who turned 20 on May 5, missed the Australian Open so the last time he played in a Grand Slam came when he won the 2022 US Open. Now he is favored to capture his second career Grand Slam singles title.
He has a pretty interesting draw just to get to the quarterfinals with either Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti or Canada’s Denis Shapovalov potential standing in his way. Even with those potentially challenging opponents, he is the favorite to win the French Open at +120.
Djokovic tumbled from No. 1 to No. 3 in the ATP rankings after his loss to Holger Rune in the Italian Open quarterfinals. That left him susceptible to being on the same half of the bracket as Alcaraz and that is exactly what has happened.
It has been a bit of a grind since Djokovic won the Australian Open while dropping only one set.
Djokovic is just 2-3 against players ranked in the top 25 in his last four tournaments. It was quite a change from the way he started the year as Djokovic won his first 15 matches.
Djokovic has reached the finals at Roland Garros six times but only has two titles to show for it. Three of those losses have come to Nadal and that is one player he won’t have to worry about. The other loss came to Stan Wawrinka and there is a chance Djokovic could see him in the quarterfinals.
A bigger concern might be seeded players Karen Khachanov, Hubert Hurkacz, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. There is also a chance he could face French players in both the second and third rounds and that could make for quite the environment.
Djokovic is priced at +175 to win his 23rd Grand Slam singles title according to the ATP Roland Garros odds.
Rune made plenty of news with his win over Djokovic in Rome. He would also eliminate No. 4 ranked Casper Ruud before falling to Daniil Medvedev in the Italian Open final.
Rune’s first final in 2023 came in Monte Carlo, thanks to wins over Medvedev and fellow top-10 player Jannik Sinner. He won the following week in a smaller event in Munich without having to face a top-25-ranked player.
Rune’s best finish at a Grand Slam was a run to the quarterfinals at the 2022 French Open. Combine that with what he did in Rome and it is understandable why is priced at +700 to win at Roland Garros.
A potential quarterfinal against Ruud would interesting. Americans Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul are also in his bracket.
It has been a strange year so far for Tsitsipas. He has an appearance in the Australian Open final but has also lost to the No. 65 and 87 players in the world. He took care of business in Rome before falling to Medvedev in two tough sets in the semifinals.
Tsitsipas has made it to at least the fourth round in each of his last four French Open appearances.
It didn’t get the easiest draw as barring any upsets, he would face Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Tsitsipas comes in at +800 to win his first French Open title.
Best of the Rest
Medvedev landed in the opposite bracket from both Alcaraz and Djokovic and yet he is only priced at +1600 to win the tournament, according to the French Open odds.
A potential showdown with No. 8 seed Jannik Sinner (+1400 in the title odds) might be a little tricky.
Ruud (+1600 to win the French Open) is also in the next wave of contenders. Ruud reached the French Open final in 2022 and followed that up with runs to the title matches at the French Open, US Open, and ATP Tour Finals.
Two-time finalist Dominic Thiem, 2015 champion Wawrinka, and 2016 finalist Andy Murray are all unseeded players. There are no seeded players from France. No player from France has reached the men’s singles final at Roland Garros since 1988 finalist Henri Leconte and that streak could very well continue.Follow us on Twitter
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