Australian Open Men’s Outrights Betting Odds
Djokovic's Title to Lose

Rafael Nadal is the defending Australian Open champion, but as per the Men’s Australian Open odds, the title is Novak Djokovic’s to lose.
Djokovic is seeking to win a record tenth Aussie Open title and a record-tying 22nd Grand Slam title of his career. He is odds on to win the title at -130 across tennis betting platforms. Nadal is priced as the third best-bet but at staggering odds of +1000, his chances of defending his title look grim early on.
The second best-bet according to the bookmakers is Daniil Medvedev. The Russian was a finalist in 2021 and 2022 and comes in as the next best-bet to win the title at +450.
Does the market have it right? Join us as we preview the first Grand Slam event on the ATP Tennis Schedule, examine the tennis odds, key storylines and provide some tennis betting tips.
Novak Djokovic | -130 |
Daniil Medvedev | +450 |
Rafael Nadal | +1000 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas | +1400 |
Taylor Fritz | +1400 |
Jannik Sinner | +1600 |
Holger Rune | +1600 |
Felix Auger Aliassime | +1800 |
Casper Ruud | +2500 |
Sebastian Korda | +4000 |
Matteo Berrettini | +5000 |
Alexander Zverev | +5000 |
Cameron Norrie | +6000 |
Andrey Rublev | +8000 |
Frances Tiafoe | +10000 |
Hubert Hurkacz | +10000 |
Denis Shapovalov | +12500 |
Alex De Minaur | +10000 |
Andy Murray | +10000 |
Karen Khachanov | +20000 |
*For the complete view of the men’s Australian Open odds, check out the sportsbook exchange.
First Quarter: Nadal, Medvedev On Collision Course
The first quarter of the draw is loaded with top players, from defending champion Nadal to last year’s finalist Medvedev and those that are interspersed in between them in this section.
If the tournament falls in line with the draw, then Nadal and Medvedev will reprise their epic final showdown in the quarterfinal.
Before either player can look that far ahead, they have a treacherous path to navigate. Nadal must overcome American Mackenzie McDonald in the R64 and the winner of Dalibor Svrcina vs Yoshito Nishioka in the R32.
Should Nadal survive the early rounds, the R16 could see him face American Frances Tiafoe, who beat him at the US Open quarterfinals last year. Alternative challengers in the fourth round include Karen Khachanov and Australian Jason Kubler.
Medvedev’s path to the quarters is littered with stumbling blocks, from Aussie John Millman in the second round to the winner of Sebastian Korda vs Yosuke Watanuki in the R32. The R16 could set up a clash with Hubert Hurkacz, Lorenzo Sonego or Denis Shapovalov, to name a few.
Second Quarter: Tsitsipas, Auger-Aliassime Highlight
If we look at the men’s Australian Open odds. Tsitsipas is the fourth best-bet to win the title. Thus, arguably, the second quarter of the draw is Stefanos Tsitsipas’ to lose. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the second highest seed in this corner, but with questionable form coming into the tournament, he’s a bit of a longshot bet.
Tsitsipas will be tested by Australian up-and-comer Rinky Hijikata in the R64. Then, he will face the winner of Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic Van de Zandeschulp.
In the R16, the biggest threat to Tsitsipas’ campaign is Jannik Sinner, who could emerge to challenge the No. 1 Greek. Indeed, the Italian is among the top contenders in the betting.
Auger-Aliassime will take on dangerous floater Alex Molcan in the R64. In the third round, he will face the winner of Francisco Cerundolo vs Corentin Moutet.
In the R16, the highest seeded threat that could challenge the Canadian is Cameron Norrie. However, American Christopher Eubanks or dark horse Czech Jiri Lehecka could also challenge Auger-Aliassime for a spot in the quarters.
Third Quarter: Djokovic, Rublev
The tennis betting gods are smiling on Djokovic because he not only fell into a relatively straightforward draw but he just got some outside help with the unfortunate withdrawal of Nick Kyrgios (knee injury) on Day 1 of the tournament.
With Kyrgios’ withdrawal, the Serbian’s path to the semifinals – never mind the quarterfinals – features few legitimate obstacles. Djokovic opens his campaign against Roberto Carballes Baena.
He will then take on the winner of Hugo Dellien and qualifier Enzo Couacaud in the R64. In the third round, Grigor Dimitrov, Aslan Karatsev or Laslo Djere are some of the potential opponents that could advance to take on the Serbian. The R16, Djokovic could face Pablo Carreno Busta, John Isner or Alex De Minaur, though none of these players has a particularly encouraging head-to-head record versus Djokovic.
Rublev flanks the opposite corner. The Russian opens against former US Open champion Dominic Thiem in the R128. Finland’s Emil Ruusuvuori or Aussie Max Purcell will emerge in the R64 while Britain’s Daniel Evans is the highest-seeded player that could emerge in the R32.
In the fourth round, Holger Rune is a potential stumbling block. As per the latest men’s Australian Open odds, the Danish teenager is a contender, albeit a bit of a longshot in reality.
Fourth Quarter, Ruud, Fritz
The fourth quarter of the draw might seem wide open with Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz hugging opposite ends. Ruud is only a middleweight contender according to the tennis odds even though he reached two Grand Slam finals in 2022.
American, Fritz has never reached the semifinal or final round of a major, but he’s somewhat surprisingly tipped as the fifth best-bet to win the title.
Ruud opens his tournament against Tomas Machac in the R128. He will take on the winner of Jenson Brooksby vs Christopher O’Connell in the second round. In the R32, Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina or American Tommy Paul could present a stiff challenge.
The highest seed in his path to the quarters is Matteo Berrettini. Alternative fourth round opponents include Andy Murray, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Fabio Fognini.
Fritz will open his bid against veteran Nikoloz Basilashvili. In the R64, he will face the winner of Alexei Popyrin or Chun Hsun Tseng. The third round could serve up a match against Miomir Kecmanovic, Ben Shelton or Zhizhen Zhang.
The most dangerous player in Fritz’ section is Alexander Zverev, but the German is coming off a horrible injury and he is likely far from top form. As such, veteran David Goffin, and young up-and-coming American J.J Wolf are alternative R16 opponents to spot.
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