Can Top-Seeded Swiatek Triumph at WTA Western & Southern Open?

Top Players Gather in Ohio for US Open Final Tune-Up

The last time the world’s top players went to the WTA Western & Southern Open, the top five seeds were all gone before the quarterfinals. That opened the door for three unseeded players to reach the semifinals and Caroline Garcia won the title after getting into the field as a qualifier.

It is a much different story this year as Garcia is the No. 6 seed as she attempts to become the first back-to-back women’s singles champion in Cincinnati since Serena Williams accomplished the feat in 2014 and 2015.

If things proceed like they have in Montreal, it could be quite the star-studded finish as American Danielle Collins is the only unseeded player who made it through to the quarterfinals.

Garcia joins 2019 champion Madison Keys, who is seeded 15th in this year’s WTA tournament stop in Cincinnati, as the only former women’s singles champs that are seeded as part of the 2023 field.

The tournament gave out main draw wild cards to former World No. 1 ranked players Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki. Williams is joined by fellow Americans Sloane Stephens and Peyton Stearns as well as former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu as wild cards into the main draw.

This will be the 10th appearance in Cincinnati for Williams. She reached the semifinals in 2012 after posting a pair of top-10 wins and also made it to the quarterfinals in 2019.

Wozniacki, the 2018 Australian Open champion and a two-time US Open finalist, is just returning to the WTA tour after retiring in 2020.

With 250 WTA tournaments in Cleveland and Chicago being held the week before the US Open, the event in Cincinnati will be the last one before the US Open with all the heavy hitters on hand.

Speaking of the final Grand Slam event of 2023, Swiatek is the favorite at +225 to win the US Open followed by Sabalenka (+500) and Elena Rybakina (+600).

Swiatek, Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina, Ons Jabeur, Garcia, Coco Gauff and Maria Sakkari will receive byes into the second round.

The women’s main draw is set to start on Monday.

A Look At the Favorites

A quick look at the WTA rankings shows that it is a two-player race for the top spot with Iga Swiatek leading second-ranked Aryna Sabalenka by 744 points. There is a gap of 3466 between Sabalenka and the next closest player.

Does that mean that Swiatek and Sabalenka are destined to collide in the WTA Western & Southern Open final?

Going into the Omnium National Bank Open in Montreal, they have met just twice in 2023 with each player winning once.

Swiatek won 6-3, 6-4 at Stuttgart in April with Sabalenka taking the rematch in three sets in Madrid a couple of weeks later.

Swiatek is just 2-4 in the main draw in her previous four appearances in Cincinnati.

Sabalenka has a much better track record as she reached the semifinals in 2018 and again in 2022.

A Look At the U.S. Hopes

American players won 61 of the 65 women’s singles titles in Cincinnati before the start of the Open era. Since then, U.S. players have emerged victorious just six times in 25 tournaments.

Jessica Pegula has moved up to No. 3 in the WTA rankings and she joins No. 7 seed Coco Gauff and the aforementioned Keys as the seeded Americans in the field at the WTA Western & Southern Open.

Pegula and Gauff both reached the quarterfinals in Montreal as did the unseeded Collins.

Pegula is 6-4 in the main draw at Cincinnati (not including the walkover against Simona Halep in 2021). She is a two-time quarterfinalist at this event and looks to take the next step.
Gauff is just 1-3 in Cincinnati.

It has been a bit of an all-or-nothing scenario for Keys in Cincinnati. She eliminated former World No. 1 players Venus Williams and Simona Halep before topping Svetlana Kuznetsova, who peaked at No. 2 in the WTA rankings, in the 2019 final.

After losing in the first round in 2020 and 2021, Keys upset top-seeded Swiatek on her way to the semifinals in 2022.

Seven of the 11 players representing the United States won their opening matches in Montreal with two of the losses coming in showdowns between a pair of U.S.-born players so this tournament could also feature plenty of homegrown talent.

Eyeing Another Title Run

Caroline Garcia opened more than a few eyes when she rolled past No. 4 seed Maria Sakkari 6-1 in the third set in the second round of last year’s event in the first of her surprising WTA scores at the 2022 event. She took out No. 7 seed Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. That was followed by a win over No. 6 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. Garcia capped things off versus unseeded Petra Kvitova in the title game.

Garcia’s memorable run almost never happened as she dropped her first set to Diane Parry in the first round of qualifying. Both of her wins in qualifying took three sets as she lost as many sets in the qualifying draw as she did in six matches in the main draw.

Garcia’s ranking heading into last year’s event would have gotten her into most events on the WTA tour. It gets pretty challenging to land spots in the main draw of a 1000 event two weeks before the US Open.

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