Italian Open Odds: Two-Time Defending Champion Swiatek Heavy Favorite in Rome

Can Aryna Sabalenka Set Up Third Championship Showdown With No. 1 Iga Swiatek in 2023?

May 8, 2023 153 4 minutes readTennis News

Italian Open Odds: Two-Time Defending Champion Swiatek The Heavy Favorite in Rome — Thomas COEX / AFP

Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff Could Square Off In Quarterfinals
Iga Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka
Jessica Pegula
Barbora Krejcikova
Elena Rybakina
Ons Jabeur

Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff Could Square Off in Quarterfinals

It is time for another of the high-profile clay court events as the world’s top players have converged on the Italian Open.

Could there be another matchup between Iga Swiatek and Arnya Sabalenka after they met in the Madrid final?

When looking at the Italian Open odds, former World No. 3 Elina Svitolina, veterans Sara Errani and Kaia Kanepi are among the underdogs in the early WTA matches.

When looking at the WTA odds, Swiatek is the heavy favorite to win in Rome followed by Sabalenka. The world No. 1 (-140) is the overwhelming favorite in the French Open outrights followed by Sabalenka at +600.

Iga Swiatek

Surprise, surprise, surprise, the world’s top-ranked player is the front-runner to win the Italian Open for the third year in a row as she is priced at -101 in the Italian Open odds.

Swiatek could meet up with Liudmila Samsonova with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

In the lone meeting between the two this season, Swiatek cruised to a 6-1, 6-0 win in the Round of 16 at Dubai. When they played in the 2022 Stuttgart semifinals, it was a much more competitive matchup with Swiatek winning 7-5 in the third set.

Bianca Andreescu, the 2019 US Open singles champion, is a dangerous floater in this bracket. Veteran Elise Mertens can’t be overlooked either, with No. 7 Elena Rybakina and No. 9 Maria Sakkari the front-runners to meet Swiatek in the quarterfinals.

Swiatek has had her issues with Rybakina so that is something to keep an eye on.

Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka topped Swiatek to win the title in Madrid. It won’t be a surprise to see the two meet up in the title match in another French Open tune-up. Sabalenka’s Italian Open odds come in at +532 to win in Rome.

Former world No. 1 Victoria Azarenka and former French Open semifinals and top-10 ranked player Madison Keys in her portion of the draw.

Sabalenka and Keys haven’t played since the Round of 16 at Berlin in 2021, when Keys won in three sets.

Caroline Garcia, a 2022 US Open semifinalist and two-time French Open doubles champion, is on the top line of this quartet of the bracket. Garcia has won the last three matchups with Sabalenka and that includes a 7-6, 6-4 win in the title match of the 2022 WTA Finals.

Garcia has pretty modest odds of +3314 to win in Rome.

Jessica Pegula

No American has reached the women’s final at the Italian Open since Serena Williams topped Keys in 2016. Pegula, the No. 3 seed is also third in the odds to win the tournament at +1271.

Barring any upsets, Pegula would meet fellow American Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals. Gauff (+2085) is seventh in the title odds.

Gauff could meet up with Marie Bouzkova in the third round. In their lone meeting, Gauff retired down 7-5, 1-0 in the 2022 Cincinnati tournament. Another dangerous player could be Anastasia Potapova, who eliminated Gauff in the Miami and Stuttgart events.

Gauff and No. 11 seed Veronika Kudermetova have also played twice in 2023, with Kudermetova winning in three sets in the Doha quarterfinals followed by Gauff advancing in a third-set tiebreaker in the Round of 32 at Stuttgart.

It could be interesting if Pegula and Karolina Pliskova advance to the quarterfinals since they haven’t met since 2021. Pliskova knows how to win in Rome as she won the title in 2019 before falling in the finals in both 2020 and 2021.

A matchup against Irina-Camelia Begu, the No. 31 seed, could take a while considering they played three-set matches in the last two meetings. That includes Pegula winning 6-4 in the third set in the Round of 16 at this year’s Charleston tournament.

Barbora Krejcikova

Krejčíková had quite the run in Dubai, taking out No. 2 seed Sabalenka, No. 3 Pegula and No. 1 Swiatek to win the title. She failed to advance past the Round of 16 in each of the next four tournaments with three of those losses coming to Sabalenka.

A third-round match with Jelena Ostapenko could be rather interesting with Daria Kasatkina likely awaiting the winner. Krejčíková is priced at +1457 to win in Rome.

According to the sportsbook, Krejcikova is third in the French Open outrights so this could be a chance for her to display her strong clay court form.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina has upset Swiatek in their last two meetings, winning 6-2, 6-2 in last month’s Indian Wells semifinals and also advancing in straight sets at the Round of 16 at the Australian Open.

First, she might need to get by Elise Mertes, Bianca Andreescu and Maria Sakkari.

Rybakina and Sakkari haven’t met since Sakkari’s straight-set win in the quarterfinals last year in Indian Wells.

Sakkari (+2542 in the Rome odds), is 3-2 in her career against Swiatek. The last meeting came in the 2022 Indian Wells final with Swiatek winning 6-4, 6-1.

Ons Jabeur

Jabeur is flying under the radar heading into the tournament with +2028 odds.

That could be a result of a possible second-round matchup with Paula Badosa. Badosa won three of the previous four matches with Jabeur.

There are six Italians in this portion of the bracket. No. 18 Martina Trevisan is the only one of those six who are seeded. However, Camila Giorgi can always be dangerous playing on clay. Stay ahead of the tennis schedule and the latest odds right here at pointspreads.com.