Italian Open Preview: Could Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz Be On A Collision Course?

Jannik Sinner Looking to Become First Italian to Win Men's Singles Title in Rome Since 1976

Ten-Time Champion Rafael Nadal’s Injured Hip Knocked Him Out of Italian Open Field

If the seeds hold true to form, fans in Rome could be treated to just the second career showdown between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. That is just one of the stories to keep an eye on when it comes to the Italian Open preview.

Rafael Nadal, a 10-time winner in Rome, is not in the field because of his hip injury that leaves his participation in the French Open very much up in the air. That is obviously dominating the tennis news cycle.

Another storyline to look at is that there are five seeded Americans in the field in a tournament where no U.S.-born player has reached the final since Andre Agassi won the 2002 championship. Can Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Sebastian Korda or Ben Shelton make a run in a deep field of contenders?

For those looking at potential tennis matchups, the only players to beat Alcaraz this year are Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie and they can’t meet Alcaraz until the final.

Veteran Richard Gasquet is among those in action on the first day as he is favored to beat Yibing Wu according to the ATP betting odds.

The tennis schedule has the French Open looking like Alcaraz (+125) and Djokovic (+220) as the favorites in the French Open outrights.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is 29-2 so far in 2023 and not much more needs to be said. He is priced at +125 to win the Italian Open for the first time as the Italian Open preview lists him as a clear favorite.

Alcaraz is coming off tournament titles in Barcelona and Madrid. He took down three top-20 players in Madrid as he won his fourth title in 2023.

He faced Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Barcelona final and they could square off in the quarterfinals.

Before that happens, he might need to meet up with No. 20 seed Daniel Evans or No. 15 Borna Coric. Evans and Alcaraz met in the semifinals in Barcelona with Alcaraz also gets a semifinal matchup with Coric in Madrid and he won both of those matches in straight sets.

American Frances Tiafoe, the No. 12 seed, is a possible quarterfinal opponent.

Tiafoe topped Alcaraz on clay in the 2021 Barcelona event before they played a classic five-set match at the 2022 US Open won by Alcaraz.

Novak Djokovic

Even without Nadal in the field, the top-seeded Djokovic is not the favorite according to the Italian Open preview as he is priced at +280 to win in Rome for the seventh time.

Djokovic’s quest to make it to the Italian Open final for the fifth year in a row and ninth time in the last 10 years could include an early matchup with Stan Wawrinka. The two veterans have met 28 times and that includes two previous meetings in Rome.

Wawrinka would have to get by No. 26 seed Grigor Dimitrov. A Dimitrov-Djokovic third-round match might be interesting. They met in the Australian Open, their first matchup in four years and Djokovic was tested in each of the three sets.

A showdown between Djokovic and No. 13 seed Cameron Norrie in the fourth round could be worth keeping an eye on. They last met at Wimbledon in 2022 with Norrie taking the first set before Djokovic got rolling.

The highest-seeded player in Djokovic’s portion of the draw is No. 7 Holger Rune while Félix Auger-Aliassime and American Sebastian Korda are players that Rune might need to contend with.

Jannik Sinner

What a story it would be if Sinner, a 21-year-old of San Candido, gives the fans in Rome a native star to cheer on as he attempts to become the first Italian to win the men’s singles title since it became a Masters event in 1990. The 1976 champion Adriano Panatta is the last Italian-born player to be crowned the men’s singles champion.

Sinner could run into No. 11 Karen Khachanov before reaching the quarterfinals. Each of the previous three meetings went the distance with Sinner winning in Melbourne and Miami in 2021.

Veteran Richard Gasquet is also in this bracket and he could be a possible opponent in the third round for Khachanov.

Sinner comes in at +671 in the Italian Open odds. A semifinal matchup with Djokovic could have a Davis Cup-like atmosphere from the crowd.

Holger Rune

The No. 4 choice at +1014 could meet up with Djokovic in the quarterfinals.

Rune is eyeing his second title of 2023 after winning the title at Munich. He also reached the finals in Monte Carlo thanks to wins over Daniil Medvedev and Sinner. Rune has a chance to meet either former Italian Open champion Andy Murray or veteran Italian Fabio Fognini in the third round.

The sportsbook will have Rune heavily favored in those matchups even if the crowd in Rome will likely be pulling for the opponent.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

The 2022 Italian Open finalist didn’t get the easiest of draws with a potential fourth-round showdown with 12th-seeded American Frances Tiafoe and then meeting up with tournament favorite Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.

Tsitsipas reached the 2022 final in Rome. There are four Italians in the top half of the quarter along with 12th-seeded American Frances Tiafoe. Expect the tennis betting action to pick up if the homegrown players advance during the tournament.

Tiafoe topped Alcaraz on clay in the 2021 Barcelona event before they played a classic five-set match at the 2022 US Open won by Alcaraz.

Tiafoe has won three of the five meetings with Tsitsipas, including the last two matchups. Four of those meetings came on hard courts and the other was on the grass at Wimbledon.

Tsitsipas has +1242 odds to win the title with there being a drop off after him in the title odds.

Others to Watch

The third quarter of the bracket could be rather entertaining with third-seeded Daniil Medvedev, +2057 to win the title, joined by No. 6 Andrey Rublev (+2928), No. 9 Taylor Fritz (+5028), 14th-seeded Hubert Hurkacz and former Italian Open champion Alexander Zverev (+2057).

A showdown between Medvedev and Hurkacz would be intriguing considering that Hurkacz is second on the tour in service aces and Medvedev is the top returner on tour.

Hurkacz leads the series with Medvedev 3-2 and that includes a marathon match at Wimbledon in 2021 won by the hard-hitting 6-foot-5 Hurkacz.

He also won in the quarterfinals in last year’s Miami Open and the Halle title match in 2022. They have never met on clay. Zverev is 2-0 against Hurkacz and that includes winning in three sets on clay in Madrid two years ago.

Fritz had won three matches in a row against Rublev in 2021 and 2022 before Rublev won in three sets in the semifinals at Monte Carlo earlier this year.

Casper Ruud, the No. 4 seed, might have to deal with some American players. No. 28 seed Ben Shelton would be a possible third-round foe with 16th-seed Tommy Paul potentially drawing Ruud in the fourth quarter. Ruud is flying a bit under the radar at +2728 to win in Rome.

Shelton topped Ruud the first time they met, a second-round match in Cincinnati in 2022 before Ruud won the rematch 6-2, 7-6 earlier this year in Barcelona.

The last three meetings between Ruud and Paul have come in Grand Slams and that included five-set wins by Ruud in the second round of the 2020 French Open and third round of the 2022 US Open.

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