Krejcikova Favored Against Paolini In Wimbledon Final

Favorites Stumble As the Wimbledon Women's Final Features No. 7 Paolini and No. 31 Krejcikova

Wimbledon Ladies Singles Draw To Have A Seventh Consecutive First-Time Winner

The first-round match between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini at the 2018 Australian Open received little attention.

That won’t be the case in an improbable Wimbledon ladies singles final. Krejcikova is favored in the Wimbledon women’s finals.

When the tournament began, neither Paolini nor Krejcikova were among the 10 players with the shortest Tennis odds in the Wimbledon outrights.

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Aryna Sabalenka pulled out of the tournament, while other favorites, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Elena Rybakina, failed to get to Saturday’s final.

  • When looking at past WTA scores, Krejcikova won the only previous matchup 6-2, 6-1 four years ago in the Australian Open.

This will be the seventh consecutive time that there will be a first-time winner at Wimbledon. When looking at the WTA live rankings, Paolini would move up to No. 5 in the rankings.

The Tennis match between Paolini and Krejcikova is set to start shortly after 9 a.m. ET and it will air on ESPN.

Krejcikova vs Paolini

⏰Day/Time:
📍Location: Sports complex in London, England
📺Streaming: ESPN+

A Look At the Props

There are +175 odds for Krejcikova to win the Wimbledon women’s final match in straight sets compared to +275 odds for Paolini to dispatch of Krejcikova without dropping a set.

  • The best value could be Paolini winning in three sets, as that would pay out at +335.

There are +200 odds for the first set to go under 8.5 games, with +275 odds to exceed 10.5 games.

It could be worth taking a look at the +200 tennis betting odds for one of the sets to go to a tiebreaker.

How Paolini Got Here

When the 2024 WTA season got underway, Jasmine Paolini had never advanced past the second round in 16 singles main draw appearances in Grand Slams.

It has been a different story this year. After winning three straight-set matches, Paolini got to the fourth round in Australia as the No. 26 seed.

Paolini won three consecutive three-set matches at the French Open on her way to her first Grand Slam title.

  • At Wimbledon, Paolini did not lose a set until the fourth round when Madison Keys evened the match by winning a tiebreaker. Keys had to retire at 5-5 in the third set.

After dropping just three games against Emma Navarro, Paolini was pushed to the brink by Donna Vekic before winning 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker in the longest women’s semifinal in Wimbledon history.

The match took two hours and 51 minutes to complete. It was two minutes longer than the 2009 showdown between Serena Williams and Elena Dementieva.

“She was playing unbelievable, she was hitting winners everywhere,” Paolini said. “I was struggling at the beginning. I told myself to fight for every ball and try to improve a little bit on the court, because I was serving really bad.”

The 28-year-old Paolini only played in one tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon when she reached the Eastbourne semifinals.

How Krecjikova Got Here

Krejcikova had a much better track record in Grand Slam going into 2024. She won the 2021 French Open title with wins over seeded players Elina Svitolina, Coco Gauff, Maria Sakkari, and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Krecjikova also reached the quarterfinals of the 2021 US Open and did the same thing at the 2022 Australian Open.

The 28-year-old Krejcikova took out talented teen Mirra Andreeva to reach the quarterfinals at this year’s Australian Open before being stunned in the first round by Viktorija Golubic at the French Open.

Her road to the Wimbledon women’s finals opened up when top-seeded Iga Swiatek was upset by Yulia Putintseva in the third round.

Krejcikova topped American Danielle Collins in the Round of 16, won two tight sets against Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals before winning in three sets versus favored Elena Rybakina in the semifinals.

Krejcikova got emotional when she spoke about her former coach Jana Novotna. Novotna, the 1998 Wimbledon champion, died at the age of 49 in 2017.

“[Novotna and I] talked about [her] matches here,” Krejcikova said. “It’s been some while since we talked about it, so I can’t really tell you what it was about. But we definitely did. Yeah, I mean, I hope she would be proud.”

The 28-year-old Krejcikova lost to players ranked 30th and 36th in her two tournaments since her early exit at Roland Garros.

Two of Krejcikova’s seven Grand Slam doubles title took place at Wimbledon.

What To Expect

This match could take a while.

  • Krecjikova has the bigger serve with 101 aces at this year’s Wimbledon compared to 31 for Paolini. However, she also has 40 more double faults.

Krecjikova has won a higher percentage of points on both her first and second serves than Paolini. Their numbers on break points are almost identical.

Paolini is in the final even though she lost one more game than she won in her first six matches.

  • There are -115 odds for Krejcikova to cover at -1.5 with the odds moving to -140 at -1 for those choosing alternate odds.

Those expecting the finalists to be out there a while can take a look at the +115 odds for the game total of go over 23.5.

With no matches between the two since 2018, it is a hard match to project but with Krejcikova motivated by the words of Novotna, it would be quite the story to see her seal the deal and join her former coach as a Wimbledon champion.

For Tennis betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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