Swiatek, Heavy Favorite in French Open Final
Paolini Stands Between Swiatek and the Women's Title
No. 1 Swiatek Looks To Join Henin, Seles With Three Straight French Open Titles
The French Open semifinals were anticlimactic. Two-time defending champion Iga Swiatek and No. 12 seed Jasmine Paolini won in straight sets to set up an improbable 2024 French Open women’s final.
The last time that Swiatek and Paolini squared off, Swiatek cruised to a 6-3, 6-0 in the first round of the 2022 US Open. She has yet to drop a set in her two career meetings with Paolini. With Swiatek rolling past Coco Gauff and Paolini taking out teen Mirra Andreeva, they are set to meet again with a Grand Slam singles title on the line.
For those betting on tennis, Paolini is priced at +750 to win her first Grand Slam title by stunning the two-time defending champion at Roland Garros.
The French Open women’s singles final is set to start shortly after 9 a.m. ET and it will air live on NBC.
Paolini Trending In the Right Direction
Jasmine Paolini has needed to work her way into her first Grand Slam final. The Italian failed to advance out of qualifying in 11 of her first 12 Grand Slams. She never got past the second round in her first main draws at majors,
Things began to change in Australia in January. Paolini got to the fourth round at the Australian Open before falling to Anna Kalinskaya.
After winning her first two tennis matches in straight sets, Paolini lost the second set to former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu. She responded by winning the third set 6-0. When she dropped the opening set to Elina Avanesyan, she promptly won 12 of the final 13 games to reach her first Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Paolini defied the tennis betting odds by upsetting No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina in three sets before dispatching teen Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-1.
The world’s 12th-ranked pro gave a glimpse into what she was capable of during her run to the Dubai title in February. However, she was just 4-3 in her last three clay-court tournaments before the French Open. She was well back in the French women’s singles outright before the start of the tournament.
None of that matters now. Paolini is one of the last two players standing and she is also still alive in the women’s doubles draw as her partner is fellow Italian star Sara Errani, the 2012 French Open women’s singles champion.
Andreeva was drawing pretty of action from those who bet online but perhaps the experience of Paolini was the difference. Few tennis scores had Paolini winning 6-3, 6-1 over the young star.
“It was a tough match, Andreeva is playing unbelievably,” Paolini told the media. “She is 17 and so complete, so I was a bit nervous. I lost to her one month ago. I was nervous in the first set but ball after ball, I was getting relaxed. I’m really happy I could win the match at the end.”
History Awaits For Swiatek
It is a short and prestigious list of women to win three straight French Open titles in the Open era.
Justin Henin was the last player to complete a three-peat at Roland Garros. She topped Mary Pierce, Svetlana Kuznetsova, and Ana Ivanovic in straight sets to win the titles in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Monica Seles was the only other women’s player to go back-to-back-to-back at Roland Garros dating back to 1968.
“Iga is the boss,” Henin said in a story posted on the WTA official site before her impressive semifinal win over Gauff. “But we can see how hard it is to win and to win and to win. It’s tough to stay at the top of the game for such a long time. Iga, she has something special for this. I think she is really strong, and if she stays healthy, and keeps the motivation, she can win a lot here.”
It almost didn’t happen. Swiatek was pushed to the brink by former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the second round before winning 7-5 in the third set. Since then, she has lost 14 games in four matches. Swiatek had no problem with American Coco Gauff, advancing to her fifth Grand Slam singles final.
“I think most of the things overall in my game worked today, so I’m proud of myself,” Swiatek said after the semifinal victory.
Now she is on the cusp of the 2024 French Open women’s final and some history.
Paolini vs Swiatek Betting Preview
Swiatek is 58-4 on clay compared to 36-21 for Paolini over the last three years. She has the edge in winning percentage on both her first and second serves.
Paolini won 53% of her break-point opportunities and that is slightly better than the success rate for Swiatek.
The players are a combined 10-3 in tiebreakers this year.
When Swiatek and Paolini met in the 2022 US Open, Swiatek was -3000 to win compared to +1000 for Paolini. The odds aren’t quite as lopsided in the rematch. But there is very little value in picking Swiatek to win the 2024 French Open women’s final. It might be worth checking out the props for the first set score after four and six games.
