Tennis: Men’s Wimbledon Draw Preview & Outright Odds Analysis

Djokovic, Nadal on Opposite Side of Draw

The 2022 Wimbledon Championships start on Monday, June 27, and conclude on July 10. Defending champion Novak Djokovic enters the tournament as the top seed in the men’s Wimbledon draw, even though his ranking has dropped to No. 3.

The ban on World No.1 Daniil Medvedev and an injury to World No. 2 Alexander Zverev, paved the Serbian’s path to the top of the draw, Djokovic is also (not surprisingly) the player to beat as per the tennis betting odds.

World No. 4 Rafael Nadal enters the tournament as the second seed, meaning he falls in the opposite half of the draw and won’t meet Djokovic until the final. That is, should the tournament fall in line with the seedings.

Below we examine the draw more closely alongside the odds to win Wimbledon as reflected in the sportsbook exchange.

Men’s Wimbledon Draw Analysis Futures Odds

Top Eight Best Bets To Win Wimbledon

  • Novak Djokovic                  -125
  • Matteo Berrettini              +500
  • Rafael Nadal                     +650
  • Carlos Alcaraz                   +800
  • Felix Auger Aliassime      +1000
  • Hubert Hurkacz               +1200
  • Nick Kyrgios                    +1600
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas            +1800

Djokovic’s Quarter

Novak Djokovic’s quarter is flanked by teen phenom Carlos Alcaraz, setting up the prospect of a potential quarterfinal showdown between the pair. Alcaraz won the last meeting with Djokovic in Madrid, beating the Serbian in the semifinals on the way to his second Master’s title.

The Serbian brings a 21-match unbeaten streak to SW19, having won the titles in 2018, 2019, and 2021. The early rounds in his section look rather straightforward. This doesn’t mean that an upset cannot occur but rather that it is less likely.

The seeded players in his immediate path to the quarters include Miomir Kecmanovic, Nikoloz Basilashvili, and Reilly Opelka. Colour the world shocked if Djokovic doesn’t book his place in the final eight

Alcaraz is probably the only player right now that would have a reasonable shot to upset Djokovic at Wimbledon. Having said that the 19-year-old is headed to SW19 without a single grass-court match under his belt.

That fact cannot be overlooked when many of his counterparts have been honing their game during June’s grass-court swing, including Andy Murray. The Briton, who is a potential R16 opponent, reached the Stuttgart final a couple of weeks ago. Others in this section include Jannik Sinner, Oscar Otte, and Fabio Fognini, to name a few.

Ruud’s Quarter

Norway’s Casper Ruud is the third seed in the tournament. He headlines a second quarter that includes Hubert Hurkacz, who is seeded seventh and is flush of a title in Halle.

This section is the most wide-open of the men’s Wimbledon draw. Ruud’s grass-court game doesn’t rival his top ranking and that exposes the Norwegian to the upset. In his immediate path, players such as Ugo Humbert, David Goffin, and Sebastian Baez could capitalize.

Further down the line, dangerous floaters such as Francis Tiafoe, Alexander Bublik, Pablo Carreno Busta, or Dusan Lajovic could also benefit.

Poland’s No.1 boosted his Wimbledon profile with a victory over Daniil Medvedev in Halle. The fact that he falls into the second quarter just adds to his value as an outside bet. That said, he has a slew of grass-court experts in his section that might fancy their chances too.

Grigor Dimitrov is one such player who could navigate a deep run. Another is my home favorite Cameron Norrie. Others such as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tommy Paul, and Brit Ryan Peniston must be considered too.

Berrettini’s Quarter

The 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini comes into Wimbledon on top form after picking up titles in Stuttgart and Queen’s Club. The Italian’s good form is auspicious, but his of the men’s Wimbledon draw is daunting.

Berrettini falls into a tough third quarter that is flanked by Stefanos Tsitsipas on the opposite end. Interspersed between them are many stumbling blocks such as Alex De Minaur, Jenson Brooksby, Denis Shapovalov, Nick Kyrgios, Diego Schwartzman, Filip Krajinovic, and Roberto Bautista Agut, to name a few.

If the draw falls in line with the seeding, we should see a blockbuster matchup between Berrettini and Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. That said, don’t be surprised if one or both players fails to live up to their lofty betting expectations.

Nadal’s Quarter

After winning an incredible 14th French Open and 22nd Grand Slam title, Rafael Nadal took some much-needed time off. He’d reaggravated the foot injury that sidelined him for the better part of last season, but he was still able to cap off a successful run on his beloved clay in Paris.

Nadal’s lack of grass preparation is something that might take the shine off of his odds, even though he’s technically the third-best bet after Djokovic and Berrettini according to the bookmakers.

His section is no cakewalk either with Marin Cilic looming as a potential R16 opponent. Others that could challenge the 36-year-old Spaniard include Botic Van De Zandschulp, Richard Gasquet, and Emil Ruusuvuori, to name a few.

The opposite side of this fourth quarter features Felix Auger Aliassime. The Canadian headlines a section that includes Briton Daniel Evans and up-and-comer Holger Rune. Also in their midst is American Taylor Fritz, who has found form in Eastbourne this week and just in time for Wimbledon.

A Nadal vs Auger-Aliassime quarterfinal would be a fascinating contest because the Canadian plays a good game on grass. He even challenged Nadal at the French Open, taking him to five sets in the R16. Auger-Aliassime might fancy his chances this time around. That said, if Nadal is in good form, he’s the better bet all day long.

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