US Open Men’s Betting Preview: Favorites, Pretenders, & Longshots

The countdown to the final grand slam of the year is on as the US Open is set to get underway at Flushing Meadows from Monday, Aug. 29 to Sept. 11, 2022. With the draw out, the players at the ready, and the first round just around the corner, we bring you an in-depth look at the betting action in this US Open Men’s Betting Preview.

In this column, we look at the US Open betting favorites, pretenders, and longshots. (To read about the women’s game, click here). (We’ll look at the draw, examine the tennis odds in US Open betting markets and weigh in on their chances to come through in the betting.

So without too much preamble, let’s get started.

ATP US Open Favorites, Pretenders & Longshots

The Favorites

• Daniil Medvedev    +175
• Rafael Nadal           +350
• Carlos Alcaraz         +400
• Nick Kyrgios            +650

The world’s best players have descended on Flushing Meadows, save for Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev. The former is denied entry into the country for failing to meet Covid-19 vaccination regulations while the latter continues to recover from a leg injury.

Djokovic’s and Zverev’s absence will be missed by some fans, but there are plenty of other exciting players to spot in this US Open Men’s Betting Preview, all promising two weeks of alluring tennis.

Defending Champion Medvedev

This is unchartered territory for Medvedev as he gets set to defend a grand slam title for the first time. There’s no doubt that the Russian is one of the best players in the game – he’s the World No.1 after all. But this is a different kind of pressure, one we’ve yet to see him navigate.

Medvedev’s draw is no picnic. He falls into the same section as Aussie Nick Kyrgios, one of the top four favorites to win the title according to the bookmakers. Kyrgios looms as a potential fourth-round opponent.

The World No.1 is also in the same quarter as Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, who’s still waiting for his major breakthrough. The Canadian looms as a potential quarterfinal opponent.

Other obstacles in the first quarter of the draw include Montreal champion Pablo Carreno Busta, compatriot Karen Khachanov, NextGen star Emil Ruusuvuori, and America wild card, Ben Shelton, to name a few.

Nadal Eyes No. 23

Nadal is gunning for his 23rd grand slam title at Flushing Meadows – a record matched only by Serena Williams in the Open Era.

Nadal enters the US Open as the second seed and second best bet overall. He headlines the fourth quarter of the draw, which includes Britain’s No.1 Cameron Norrie.

Overall, Nadal’s quarter appears to be manageable and in all likelihood, he should reach the quarterfinals at the very least. There are a few early obstacles in the form of Aslan Karatsev and Fabio Fognini, but both players are entering the US Open in a relatively modest form.

American Francis Tiafoe looms as a possible R16 challenger along with Diego Schwartzman, Jack Sock, and Jason Kubler, amongst several others; however, these are all favorable matchups for the Spaniard – on paper.

Arguably, Denis Shapovalov is the biggest threat in this section, along with an unseeded John Isner. One or the other could emerge as a quarterfinal challenger.

Alcaraz Poised For Slam Breakthrough

Alcaraz is the “it kid” of tennis right now, the popular bet amongst tennis fans, and a legitimate contender to win a grand slam title before his 20th birthday next year.

Alcaraz features in the third quarter of the draw which includes Cincinnati champion Borna Coric, former US Open champion Marin Cilic and No. 8 seed Hubert Hurkacz. Elsewhere, Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Musetti, and Jannik Sinner lurk as possible stumbling blocks in the quarterfinals.

Kyrgios vs Kyrgios

On a good day, Kyrgios can beat anyone. He’s that talented. Unfortunately, Kyrgios is also mercurial, unpredictable, distracting, and a bit of a hothead. More often than not, he gets in his own way of success.

Kyrgios is the bookies’ fourth overall favorite, a market outlook underscored by his recent runner-up finish at the Wimbledon Championships. Whether Kyrgios can stay focused remains to be seen. He’s in the first quarter of the draw alongside Medvedev.

The Pretenders

• Stefanos Tsitsipas         +1200
• Jannik Sinner                +1400
• Felix Auger Aliassime   +2000
• Matteo Berrettini         +2000
• Taylor Fritz                   +2500
• Andrey Rublev             +2500
• Borna Coric                  +2500

After the top four favorites, the odds jump dramatically. Stefanos Tsitsipas comes in as the fifth best bet, but he’s priced at double the odds (or thereabouts) of Kyrgios.

Tsitsipas features a wide-open second quarter that could deliver several surprises. Some of the players to spot in this section include Americans Fritz, Tommy Paul, and Maxime Cressy. As well, former US Open champions Andy Murray and Stanislas Wawrinka and former Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini are contained here. Then there’s dangerous floater Alexander Davidovich-Fokina, Biotic van de Zandschulp, and Sebastian Korda to consider.

The Longshots

• Dominic Thiem          +3000
• Denis Shapovalov      +4000
• Casper Ruud              +4000
• Cameron Norrie         +4000
• Jenson Brooksby        +5000
• Hubert Hurkacz          +5000
• Andy Murray              +5000
• Marin Cilic                  +5000
• Jenson Brooksby        +5000
• Pablo Carreno Busta  +6500

Any player tipped outside of the top four bets over the last two decades has been a longshot bet to win the US Open or any grand slam title. Tennis’ biggest stage has been dominated by Nadal, Djokovic, and Roger Federer. Only a handful of players were able to crash the winners’ circle during their heyday.

With only Nadal attending this year’s US Open, the door is potentially open for a first-time champion, even though the probability is still low as per the odds.

Covering all 127 players not named Nadal is beyond the scope of this US Open Men’s Betting Preview. We’ve listed some of the notable longshot bets (above), including American Jenson Brooksby, Hubert Hurkacz, Cameron Norrie, and Casper Ruud (to name a few).

It’s worth noting that some of these players are inside the Top 20! If that doesn’t underscore how difficult winning a grand slam in the men’s game is, what will? Put simply, while the possibility exists, it would still be a real shocker if one of these players comes through to win the title.