The UFC is the world’s top MMA promotion with emphasis on the word “promotion.” The UFC’s job is to make stars and sell fights. That’s why looking at the UFC 278 betting odds, we have some lopsided matchmaking. Eight of the 13 fights have favorites line at -350 or shorter indicating a winning probability of 73 percent or better. Looking into the props market, many of these favorites are expected to quickly and brutally finish their opponents.
Early Finishes Highlight UFC 278
Of the eight big favorites on the card, five of the eight are expected to get it done in the first round per the UFC 278 betting odds. Tyson Pedro, the event’s biggest favorite, is expected to finish Harry Hansucker in the first at chalked odds. Bettors will need to lay $250 to get a return of $100 on Pedro to win in round 1.
In the co-main event, Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa is expected to erase former middleweight champion Luke Rockhold in the first round. Costa to win in round 1 is at +165 and for him to do it via KO is at +185. The Brazilian debuted in the UFC 278 with a first-round KO and also owned three second-round knockouts.
Miranda Maverick, the second-largest favorite for the evening, should be able to submit Shanna Young quickly. Finishes in women’s MMA are uncommon and a first-round finish is even rarer. But the -650 favorite already owns a first-round submission win over Young over at Invicta even if it was an exhibition.
Are We in For Some Shocking Upsets?
While it is plausible for the favorites to roll, there is room for some big upsets. We’re into the latter half of the UFC events 2022 so we could see an underdog shock the world here. Rockhold has finished all six of his UFC victories with five coming in the first two rounds. The sportsbook pays at +550 should Rockhold finish Costa.
If it’s not Rockhold or the other two underdogs above, it could be Francisco Figueiredo over Amir Albazi. At +350, the UFC Flyweight Champion’s brother could finish Albazi at 7-1 odds. For him to do it in round pays at 12-1 per the UFC 278 betting odds.
In the featured fight, former UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo is a slight underdog against Merab Dvalishvili. While Aldo is only a slight underdog at even odds, those who bet on UFC fights can get a payout of +375 if Aldo finishes his Georgian opponent. Aldo to win in the first is at even longer odds at 6-1.
Usman-Edwards 2 One of the Few to Go The Distance
While most of the large favorites could dust their opponents, a few are expected to do it via the judges’ scorecards. Kamaru Usman defends his UFC Welterweight Championship in a rematch against Leon Edwards. He already defeated him in a three-round fight and the odds indicate he’ll most likely beat him by a decision in five rounds.
While Usman owns a highlight-reel knockout over Jorge Masvidal, most of his fights have gone to a decision. The same can be said for Leon Edwards who is often criticized for not finishing his fights; however, these fighters still pack plenty of power in their fists and one well-time shot can flatten the other.
That is if Edwards can keep this fight standing. Usman has grown a lot as a striker but he’s a wrestler at heart. Edwards is a striker and the path of least resistance for Usman is to take him down and wear him out. This is not an ideal scenario for fans looking for a finish, but it is still possible for Usman to finish Edwards on the mat. Should that happen, it would be one of the unlikelier outcomes of the fight.Follow us on Twitter