UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana Odds Trending Against Favorites

Betting Action is Towards Most of the Main Card Underdogs

Aldana’s Line is Getting Steamed Against Nunes

Could an upset be in the works for UFC 289? According to bettors, there could be. The underdog, Irene Aldana has seen her line drop from +350 at opening to +250. Amanda Nunes, the champion, is now at -350 after opening at -500. The Nunes vs Aldana odds may continue to move for the challenger. This could just be noise or we’re about to see another Mexican fighter crowned.

Nunes vs Aldana

Date, time:
Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Broadcast: Pay-per-view

Aldana and Some Underdogs Receiving Hefty Action

Aldana will look to “shock the world” by dethroning Nunes this Saturday. And based on recent history, it may not be that shocking actually. For one, Nunes already saw herself get upset in 2021 as a -900 favorite against Julianna Pena. And earlier this year, Aldana’s teammate, Alexa Grasso, upset Valentina Shevchenko as a +450 underdog.

Maybe the inspiration from the upset will fuel Aldana to do the same. Or maybe Nunes’s weight-cutting issues and move to a smaller gym would do her in. Either way the Nunes vs Aldana odds keep shortening for the underdog.

Aldana, however, does not have the best track record as an underdog. She’s only won one fight (versus Kunitskaya) where she was the underdog and only as a slight one (Ev). But against Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington, she came up short.

The 35-year-old is mainly a boxer who will need to keep the fight standing. She has an 81% takedown defense though she did surrender three five takedowns against Holm, who is primarily a striker. She also absorbs over 5.7 significant strikes per minute and got thoroughly outboxed by Holm. Compared to Nunes’s 2.75, Aldana will need better than a “puncher’s chance” to deliver on these UFC event odds.

All Aboard Nate “The Train” and The Dog Bandwagon?

Aldana isn’t the only dog getting action on the sportsbook. Others like Nate Landwehr (+200), Adam Fugitt (+165), and Eryk Anders (Ev) have also received bets that pushed their lines down.

Landwehr, who is fighting Dan Ige (-260), got bet down to +165 at one point. Famously dubbed “Nate the Train”, he is a fan favorite with an aggressive albeit reckless style. He’s a high risk, high reward bet just like his fighting style.

Fugitt is fighting Mike Malott (-210), the Canadian favorite. Malott has the wrestling to dominate Fugitt. But the dog underdog has won as one in two of his last three fights. He also has a four-inch reach advantage. Their lines have gone back-and-forth.

As for Anders, he opened at +110 and is now down to even money. Marc-Andre Barriault (-150) won his last five fights as a favorite. The bettors are betting each fighter per the UFC 289: Nunes vs Aldana odds though Anders’s line has gotten steamed more.

Co-Main Event Has a Sizable Asterisk

In the co-main event, former champion Charles Oliveira (+120) faces Beneil Dariush (-150) in a potential title eliminator. This fight was postponed from a month back due to Oliveira getting injured. He opened at +105 and was bet down to -110 at one point. But Dariush backers quickly pounced on his line and Oliveira is now a larger underdog.

The Brazilian is familiar being an underdog. He’s 5-5 as one but has won two of his last three bouts as one. Dariush has won eight straight fights with seven as the favorite. The UFC 289 fight night odds lined this tightly as both fighters are great wherever the fight goes.

Oliveira has multiple UFC records when it comes to finishes. In fact, only three of Oliveira’s 31 UFC fights have gone to a decision. Dariush also has plenty of finishes. Half of his victories have come by either knockout or submission including four of his last seven.

That’s why the total here is heavily juiced on the ‘under’ 2.5 rounds (-180). It’s unlikely this fight goes to a decision. And if Oliveira is still not fully healed, the fight may end even quicker.
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