UFC 289 Props: One Punch Can Change Everything
Underdogs Could Prosper Given a “Puncher’s Chance”
UFC 289 Props Highlight Potential Finishes in Main Card
The UFC returns to Vancouver where main fights have resulted in early finishes. The last two main events led to first-round finishes along with the original event where Rich Franklin retired Chuck Liddell with a first-round knockout. Going by the UFC 289 props, the main event is highly favored to end in a finish. A knockout is also Irene Aldana’s, the challenger, best shot to dethrone Amanda Nunes.
UFC Fight 289
Nunes vs Aldana
Date, time:
Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Can Aldana Knock Nunes Out?
Aldana and her backers would hope she has more than a “puncher’s chance” to win the fight against Nunes. She’s the +250 underdog to win and her UFC odds have been bet down from +350 at opening. And with UFC 289 props at 5-1 to finish Nunes, it’s not crazy to envision the Team Lobo fighter from replicating what her teammate did.
“[It was] very inspiring,” Irene Aldana told reporters including Cageside Press in regards to Alexa Grasso submitting Valentina Shevchenko to win the UFC flyweight title. “[It was] great motivation for me seeing her accomplish that, not just accomplishing, but the way she accomplished that. She shined that night.”
Aldana faces underdog odds, but she’s got crisp and powerful boxing to hurt even a titan like Nunes. Her last three victories came by way of TKO with two being in the first round. A bet on Aldana to knock Nunes out in Round 1 pays at 11-1. It would be the most shocking thing to happen in the UFC this year and that’s saying something.
However, the most likely outcome of the fight is for Nunes to finish Aldana at -160. Either way, their championship bout is heavily expected to get finished at -250. Five of Nunes’s eight title fights at 135 pounds ended with either a TKO or a submission.
The Rest of the Main Card are Likely Ending in a Finish
Speaking of finishes, three of the other four main card fights are also not expected to go the distance. In the co-main event, Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira fight for a title shot at 145 pounds. Their moneyline odds have gone back and forth in favor of Dariush (-120). But the UFC 289 props on their fight to end in a TKO or submission are at -260.
This fight had to be postponed from the UFC schedule due to a minor injury from Oliveira. This may be a red flag for Oliveira as any slight injury heading to this fight could lead to his demise. Both Dariush and Oliveira have combined for 27 finishes inside the octagon. Oliveira is the UFC record-holder for submissions (16) and finishes (19).
Oliveira tends to get finished as well (eight losses by TKO or submission). Hence, Dariush’s favored prop is a TKO/submission over Oliveira at +135. For Oliveira to add to his record, it’s at +170 for a finish.
In the featured bout, Mike Malott should make short work of Adam Fugitt per the odds. Malott is -210 to win and -130 to win via a TKO or submission. But Fugitt is coming off an upset victory where he TKO’d Yusaku Kinoshita for 4-1 on the UFC odds. And at -350, this fight has the shortest odds of going inside the distance.
Dan Ige and Nate Landwehr are also not expected to need judges. Listed at -135, there is still a decent chance (+105) they both survive to the final bell. However, Landwehr’s reckless style earned him the moniker “Nate the Train”. Ige has one-punch knockout power as he displayed in his last two victories.
The only fight favored to go to a decision is the opener: Marc-Andre Barriault takes on Eryk Anders. Despite being the heaviest (185 lbs.), the odds have it at -130 for their fight to go the distance as most of their UFC fights have gone.
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