UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Betting Odds Preview – Upsets are Brewing
Would-Be Contenders Line Potentially Volatile Card
Dern Favored in Main Event Over Hill
Despite repeated stumbles, Mackenzie Dern remains one of the UFC’s most popular fighters. That’s why she returns to the main event of UFC Fight Night and as a favorite yet again. She’s lined at -175 per the Dern vs Hill betting odds. The comeback on her opponent, longtime veteran Angela Hill, is at +145. While Hill has struggled to pull off upsets thanks to her unpopularity with judges, she fights a favorite that is prone to being upset.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Info
Dern vs Hill
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Day/Time:
Broadcasts: ESPN+
Dern Should Have a Clear Path to Victory… But…
It’s unclear just what Dern’s state of mind is. The 30-year-old went through a rough divorce this past year and it likely contributed to her uneven performances against Yan Xiaonan and Tecia Torres.
“It’s been so crazy. My divorce has been crazy. Coach Parillo, he was out of town for a month with Luke for his bare-knuckle fight,” Dern told Bloody Elbow. “Definitely for this fight, I’m coming with a lot of aggression from my personal life and everything. Nothing personal against Angela, I have a lot of respect for her, but I need to get it done.”
This statement may just make Dern’s backers cringe. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion has the logical option of forcing her grappling on Hill where she has a clear advantage. But if she chooses to strike with Hill, she’ll put herself at a disadvantage.
The Dern vs Hill betting odds have moved towards the underdog who opened at +160 and is now down to +145. Hill, who has been an underdog in her last five fights, won her last two fights. She cashed as a +280 underdog against Lupita Godinez.
The key for Hill will be to keep the fight standing, which she should have some success. She has a 77 percent takedown defense and has a wealth of experience against grapplers. Dern also has a measly 11 percent takedown accuracy.
Dern’s aggression could also work against her as she may be more susceptible to mistakes, which is something a veteran like Hill can exploit. Either way, this UFC event odds could end with an upset.
Shahbazyan, Fialho, and Johnson Lead Live Underdogs
Hill is not the only underdog worth watching. The main card is littered with veterans and would-be contenders who could just topple the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill betting odds.
Edmen Shahbazyan opened as a 2-1 underdog but has now been bet down to +160 against Anthony Hernandez (-200). The former top-15 fighter is just 1-3 in his last four fights, but his losses came against ranked opposition. Hernandez is a step down in comparison even if “Fluffy” has the wrestling-heavy style to give him fits.
Still, Shahbazyan is a fast starter and his last four wins have come via finish. Hernandez is a relentless wrestler but he has been finished. If Shahbazyan can get to him early, he may just pull off the upset as his growing list of backers hopes.
Michael Johnson finds himself in the same boat against Carlos Diego Ferreira (-165). The veteran has fought in 27 UFC events. He last upset Marc Diakiese as a +260 underdog in his last bout. That victory was also his second in his last three fights with his loss being a split decision. “The Menace” still has plenty left in the tank at 36 years old and bettors have steamed his line from the opener of +190 to +135.
On the other end is Andre Fialho, who is being bet against. Now at +165, Fialho opened at +155 and was bet to as high as +200. He takes on Joaquin Buckley who is a fellow knockout artist but at middleweight. Buckley, the author of one of the most viral knockouts in 2020, is 4-3 since this win. This will be his welterweight debut. A bad weight cut could lead to backers fading him on the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill betting odds closer to the event.
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