Week 11: College Football Upset Winners
It’s that time of the week when we dive into who will give us the best shot at cashing a plus-money winner.
We know many people like college football over and under bets this time of year because of weather conditions, but there is still value in betting moneyline dogs if you know where to look. Of the 63 College Football games last week between Thursday and today, 20 teams were able to cash a plus-money outright winner. That brings our overall results to 409-143 (78.35%) in favor of favorites winning outright, but that’s still not good enough to turn a profit (-21.88 units) overall. The best numbers to find an outright winner continue to be dogs of 3 points to 3.5 points. They combine for a record of 33-37, which is good for a profit of 7.43 units. With this knowledge, let’s go through three games where we’ll cash a ticket on another College Football Week 11 Upset.
Upset #1: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs (16) Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks (7-2 / 4-2) are hosting the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5 / 3-3). Oddsmakers have made the ranked Jayhawks just a 3.5-point home favorite against a team under .500. That’s a peculiar line, to say the least, but when you factor in Red Raiders 18 wins in their last 20 meetings, the number makes more sense. In all 20 games, Tech had at least 350 yards in total offense.
From a psychological view, and often overlooked aspect of handicapping, Texas Tech is at its beak after beating TCU last week, and they know that a win against a ranked opponent on the road will take the sting out of losing four times this season as a favorite.We think the Texas Tech wins this by controlling the ground game against a Jayhawks defense that gives up 167 yards rushing per game. Take Texas Tech straight-up +165. On to our second College Football week 11 upset.
Upset #2: Pittsburgh Panthers vs Syracuse Orangemen
The Pittsburgh Panthers (2-7 / 1-4) are a 3-point road favorite against the Syracuse Orangemen (4-5 / 0-5) who are winless in conference play. Pittsburgh has lost three games by a combined score of 82-14 after losing 24-7 to Florida State last week. If you watched, you know that Pittsburgh gave everything they had before running out of steam in the fourth quarter.
That three-game stretch has pushed the Panthers down to 110th in total offense with just 20.7 points per game. It’s really about execution in big moments, something the Panthers have not done for much of the NCAAF season. Those numbers don’t appear to phase bettors after Pittsburgh was bet up from -2 to -3 on the back of 67% of the tickets on Pittsburgh.
You have to look deeper than simply going against a winless team in the NCAA football standings. They were 4-0 outside the conference and had a signature win at Purdue. They are hurting at the quarterback position, but the number tells me that the books would rather have Pittsburgh money. The Panthers have dominated this series, winning 16 of 18, but this number makes us feel like we’re walking into a trap. Take Syracuse straight-up +130. On to our final College Football week 11 upset.
Upset #3: San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams
We get to see these two teams quite a bit, so we’re more than comfortable saying that San Diego State (3-6 / 1-4) will knock off Colorado State (3-6/1-4). The Rams opened as a 4-point favorite, but that number has moved to 3.5 after 85% of the total money is coming in on San Diego State. We’re not sure where all the confidence is coming from, but we agree with it.
San Diego State will run the ball at least 35 times in an effort to control the ground game against a Rams team that allows 173.8 rushing yards per game. If you’re wondering, it will be in the mid-50s and clear, so we don’t have snow to worry about. Our third and final College Football Week 11 upset is the San Diego State Aztecs +155. There’s not much left of the college football schedules, but we wish you all the best with the remaining games.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
