2024 Rally Italia Odds point to another showdown

The two drivers were the class of the field in Portugal. Can anyone else catch them in Italy?

The World Rally Championship (WRC) returns this week for Round 6 of the 2024 season in Italy. It was a two-horse race last time out in Portugal. Sébastien Ogier made it two wins in a row with a 7.9-second victory over Ott Tänak. The rest of the field was more than a minute behind them. This week, the 2024 Rally Italia Odds predicts another close battle between the two drivers.

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2024 Rally Italia Odds: The favorites

  • Sébastien Ogier (-118)

Ogier became the first driver this season to notch two victories with his win in Portugal. In three events this season, he’s either finished second (Monte-Carlo) or first (Croatia and Portugal).

He’s done very well in Italy across two different rally racing events: Rally di Monza and Rally Sardinia. His six wins in Italian rally events is behind only Monte-Carlo (eight) and Mexico (seven).

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Last year, he struggled to 14th place, his worst showing in Italy since 2009. He’s in much better shape this season and should rightfully be considered the favorite.

  • Ott Tänak (+250)

Tänak’s pace was a pleasant surprise, given his form so far in 2024. It was his first top-three finish since the Central European Rally.

Despite taking second place, he left the weekend with the most points of the field (26). This puts him up to third in the WRC standings.

His track record in Sardinia is good but inconsistent. Wins in 2017 and 2022 bridged with ninth (2018), fifth (2019), sixth (2020), and 24th (2021).

He had his second-worst result of 2023 there with 35th. He looks to be in better form ahead of the event, so he could be on the better side of his typical results.

Sleeper options

  • Dani Sordo (+600)

Sordo had a good run in his first event of the season. He finished fifth on the road and took home 11 points for Hyundai. His reward is another race this week.

Last year, Sordo had to retire on stage 18. Prior to that, the Sardinia Rally was one of his best on the calendar. Wins in 2019 and 2020 preceded a third-place result in 2022.

A win would be a surprise but a top-three finish (odds at -111) would not.

Thierry Neuville (+700)The championship leader made it two podium finishes in a row with third in Portugal.

He was far from Ogier and Tänak but managed to keep up points-wise with 24 from the weekend. He’s now built a 24-point lead over Elfyn Evans atop the standings.

That gap could grow this weekend. He won this event in 2016, 2018, and 2023 and has another trio of podiums on his record in 2017, 2020, and 2021.

All six events were in Hyundai rally cars, the same he’s entered in this season. It’s one of his better events on the whole and at least a podium (+115) seems likely.

  • Elfyn Evans (+700)

Evans endured his worst rally of the WRC season in Portugal with sixth on the road and just six championship points. He had issues during the stages (a punctured tire on Friday) and before starting (pace notes left at time control before a stage).

His track record in Sardinia is okay but not great. He’s never won in 10 career WRC races there and stood on the podium just once (second in 2021). If he’s looking for a turnaround event, this week is far from ideal.

  • Takamoto Katsuta (+3400)

Katsuta struggled in Portugal to finish 29th and more than an hour behind the top Rally1 runners. It’s unlikely to get much better this weekend.

Katsuta finished last year’s event classified 40th. The two years prior were better with sixth in 2022 and fourth in 2021 but that ended a streak of three consecutive retirements.

His WRC odds are understandably quite long for a good result this weekend.

2024 Rally Italia Odds: Predictions

This weekend’s rally continues the run of European gravel events. The WRC will contest events in Poland, Latvia, Finland, and Greece through the summer.

Rally Italia will be all about the top two drivers in front between Ogier and Tänak. Between the two, we’re going with Tänak for the victory.

Winning three WRC events in a row is incredibly hard and this would be the first time Ogier’d done it since 2016. Of the sleepers, our top choice is Sordo. Neuville’s starting position won’t do him any favors so Sordo’s the pick for a sleeper winner.

Our podium finish picks are Tänak (-200), Ogier (-333), and Neuville (+115). That starting position will keep the Belgian from winning but not off the podium.

For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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