2024 Rally Poland Odds: Tänak poised for a second-straight win

The Estonian driver earned a win in Sardinia by a record margin and looks set for another victory

The 2024 World Rally Championship (WRC) season took six rounds to match history. Ott Tänak’s win in Rally Italia Sardegna came by just 0.2 seconds, tied for the closest finish in WRC history. He took his first win of the season by that margin over Sébastien Ogier, who’d won the previous two rounds. This week, Ogier is out of action following a crash in the leadup to the Rally Poland, leaving Tänak to top the 2024 Rally Poland Odds.

2024 Rally Poland Odds: Favorites

  • Ott Tänak (+125)

Tänak took the victory in Sardinia thanks to a Power Stage puncture for Ogier. That win catapulted the Estonian driver up to second in the standings. He’s now one of the WRC+ leaders as the schedule continues through the European rounds.

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Poland returns to the WRC schedule this weekend for the first time since 2017. In the last WRC event there, Tänak didn’t finish.

That came after consecutive podium finishes with third in 2015 and second in 2016. It’s not much of a track record but enough to make him a good choice this weekend given his recent form.

  • Elfyn Evans (+400)

Evans continued his consistent form last time out in Sardinia. Following his worst result of the season (sixth in Portugal), he returned to the top five with a fourth-place finish.

He’s the most consistent of the full-time rally road racers this year and has finished no lower than sixth all year. Only Ogier’s part-time season average is better.

His track record is worse than Tänak’s by far. His best result came in 2017 with eighth place. In 2016, he finished 13th, and a year earlier he didn’t finish.

It’s an odd contrast to his typically good pace on fast gravel rallies like Poland’s conditions. A win would be a bit of a surprise given his track record but he’ll be starting from a good spot this weekend (third in the order).

  • Thierry Neuville (+600)

The championship leader had his worst weekend of the season in Italy. He finished the weekend classified 41st, his worst non-DNF since finishing 41st in Italy in 2022. He still holds an 18-point lead in the WRC standings thanks to his win in Monte Carlo and podiums in Croatia and Portugal.

Of the favorites, he has the best track record in Poland. He won this event in 2017 after finishing fourth in 2016, sixth in 2015, and third in 2014. He’s not in a good starting position as he’ll be first out but should be in the mix as Hyundai look to have another good round.

  • Kalle Rovanperä (odds not available)

After his crash earlier this week, Rovanperä was announced as a last-minute replacement for Ogier. As such, there are no WRC odds for him at the time of publishing. He’s never raced a WRC event in Poland but he should be in with a chance for a good performance as the two-time defending series champion.

Sleepers

  • Takamoto Katsuta (+1400)

It hasn’t been a good run of WRC rally dates for Katsuta lately. His second-place finish in Kenya seems ages ago with fifth in Croatia, 29th in Portugal, and 40th in Sardinia his results since then.

If Rovanperä isn’t fully up to speed, he could be Toyota’s second man this weekend. That’s unfamiliar territory for both him and the team but could make him rise to the occasion.

  • Adrien Fourmaux (+4900)

Fourmaux had another off weekend in Sardinia after his fourth-place finish in Portugal. Trouble on Day 1 saw him finish 15th by the end of the weekend.

That’s tough, but he still remains in the top five of the WRC standings behind Neuville, Tänak, Evans, and Ogier.

Like Katsuta, he’s never raced a WRC event in Poland. This will be new territory for him and it’d be an incredible shock to see him on the top step of the podium.

2024 Rally Poland Odds: Predictions

Things look different than anticipated for Poland’s return to the WRC calendar because of Ogier’s absence. It’ll likely be a battle between the top three in the championship with Rovanperä potentially playing spoiler and sniping points away from them.

Of the favorites, Tänak (+125) looks like the best choice. He’s improving and not starting first this weekend. We’re willing to look past his track record at this event.

Of the sleepers, Katsuta (+1400) is the only good choice but it’d be a shock for him to get the win.

We like a podium of the favorites:

  • Tänak (-286)
  • Evans (-154)
  • Neuville (-111)

For WRC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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