2024 Secto Rally Finland Odds: Can Rovanperä Snap The Curse?
Can the Defending Champion Overcome Home Struggles?
One of the shortest breaks on the World Rally Championship means the grid’s back in action this weekend in Finland. Kalle Rovanperä took his series-leading third win of the season last time out in Latvia. He’s back in action for Toyota Gazoo Racing WRT and leads the 2024 Secto Rally Finland Odds.
2024 Secto Rally Finland Odds: Favorites
Kalle Rovanperä (-105)
Rovanperä won the final four stages of Saturday’s action in Latvia to build an insurmountable lead en route to victory. The two-time defending champion won by 39 seconds over Sébastien Ogier and earned his second consecutive win on the 2024 WRC schedule.
He’ll be going for win No. 3 in a row this weekend but his track record in Finland is concerning. He finished second in 2022 but that’s his best result in the WRC’s top level.
Last year he retired from his home race; in 2021, he finished 34th; in 2019, he finished ninth. He’s won three rallies in a row just once during his title run in 2022. To do that again this weekend, he must overcome a rough history.
Ott Tänak (+300)
Tänak bounced back well from a rough run in Poland to take third place in Latvia. On Sunday, he won the power stages to cut into Thierry Neuville’s lead in the championship standings. Tänak is just eight points behind heading into the weekend.
This is good timing. Tänak has one of the best track records in the field at Finland, hence his WRC odds this weekend. He won this event in 2018, 2019, and 2022 and finished second in 2021. Last year he retired from the race but his overall track record is too good to ignore. He should be in the hunt for at least another podium.
Sébastien Ogier (+375)
Ogier kept his top-two finish streak going in Latvia in finishing behind Rovanperä. He’s racing part-time in 2024 but sits fourth in the standings and 28 points behind leader Neuville.
It’s been three years since Ogier last competed in Rally Finland. In his final full-time season in 2021, he finished fifth in one of his worst results. He’s won this race once in 2013 and hasn’t had a podium finish since 2015. He should be in the hunt for the win given his form this season but it’s tough to pick him as the winner in WRC predictions.
Elfyn Evans (+600)
Evans made the top five again in Latvia to keep pace at the top of the standings. Despite a winless resume this season, Evans remains in third and just 13 points behind Neuville and very much in the title fight.
This could be the weekend he breaks through because Evans won this race last season and in 2021. In between those wins, Evans finished fourth in 2022. He should be in a good place this weekend with a chance to cut into Neuville’s lead even more.
2024 Secto Rally Finland Odds: Sleepers
Thierry Neuville (+1400)
Neuville’s gone nearly three months since his last podium finish in the WRC (third in Portugal). He’s finished 41st in Sardinia, fourth in Poland, and eighth in Latvia. After one of his stronger starts to a season in his WRC career, Neuville is in trouble of losing ground again in the title fight.
He’s never won Rally Finland and has a mixed track record. He finished second last year, fifth in 2022, retired in 2021, and sixth in 2019. A much-needed podium may be hard considering the field, though it’s not out of the question.
Takamoto Katsuta (+1400)
Katsuta had one of his better weekends this season in Latvia with sixth place overall. That’s his first top-six result since finishing fifth in Croatia.
Rally Finland was Katsuta’s best event last season. His sole podium of the season was a standout performance in the second half of the schedule. Another podium would be a surprise but a win would be shocking.
Esapekka Lappi (+1400)
Like Rovanperä, Lappi’s competing on home soil this weekend. It’s his fourth event of the season following his retirement in Latvia last time out.
The Rally Sweden winner has an okay track record in Finland over his career. He earned his first win there in 2017 and notched podium finishes in 2019 (second) and 2022 (third). But he also retired from the event last year and in 2018. That mix of results and his unpredictable form this year makes a win an incredibly long shot but a podium is potentially in the cards.
2024 Secto Rally Finland Odds: Predictions
Rally Finland’s high speeds on gravel roads make this event one of the closer WRC races on the calendar. It’s also demanding on the drivers as small mistakes can have huge consequences.
- Of the favorites, we like Tänak (+300) for the win with a podium of Tänak (-145), Evans (+110), and Ogier (-154). Of the sleepers, we like Lappi (+1400) to win or break into the podium (+225).
For WRC betting news, WRC odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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