WRC Safari Rally Kenya Preview: Three Driver’s Lead Odds
After Thierry Neuville's Surprise Win in Italy, Odds Remain Wide Open

The World Rally Championship heads to Africa for the first and only time in the 2023 WRC season this weekend. Drivers and teams are preparing for another gravel contest that winds its way through the Kenyan landscape. Rocky tracks and unpredictable weather are typically challenging for drivers, and this event will likely be no different. Here’s what you need to know in this WRC Safari Rally Kenya preview.
Tight Odds for Victory at The Top
The WRC field comes into the event with five different winners in the past five rallies. Ott Tänak won the second round in Sweden, Sébastien Ogier won in Mexico, Elfyn Evans took victory in Croatia, Kalle Rovanperä stood on the top step in Portugal, and Thierry Neuville won last time out in Italy. The WRC hasn’t had this kind of parity early on in the season since 2016.
Neuville’s win and an unexpected second-place finish for Esapekka Lappi ahead of Rovanperä in Italy shook up the WRC standings. Rovanperä’s top of the championship with 118 points but Neuville’s now second at 93. Tänak (85), Evans (83), and Ogier (70) round out the top five.
Ogier’s the only driver with multiple wins in 2023. The WRC odds this week reflect the unusual parity this season.
Ogier’s favored for yet another win at +220. He won the Safari Rally Kenya two years ago by 21 seconds. His surprising crash in Italy on stage 14 sunk him from the lead down to a 14th-place finish. He pinned the crash on his foot slipping off the brake pedal and getting caught between the brake and clutch. He’ll be in a good starting position for this week’s rally and will be looking to put his worst result this season well behind him.
Championship leader Rovanperä is next-best at +260. The defending WRC champion’s improved over the last two events. He had one podium in the first four events; he’s gone two for two in Portugal and Italy. This time last year, Rovanperä had tallied four wins in six events. He’s the defending winner and can build a gap at the top with another victory here.
Following his win in Italy, Neuville (+275) rounds out the trio of favorites. He’s been a picture of consistency in 2023 even before his win. He started the year with three consecutive podiums and bounced back from a bad result in Croatia for fifth in Portugal. A win here makes him a strong contender for the championship once again but he’d be the first non-Toyota driver to win in Kenya since the WRC returned to the event in 2021.
WRC Safari Rally Kenya Preview: Other Contenders for Victory
Tänak’s had an up-and-down season following his win in Sweden. Ninth in Mexico, second in Croatia, fourth in Portugal, then 35th in Italy. The lead M-Sport Ford driver is +800 for victory in Kenya. It’d be surprising to see him on the top step but a good result would give him momentum ahead of his home event in Estonia.
Though he has longer odds than the frontrunners, Lappi (+800) could play spoiler in Kenya. He finished second in Italy after third-place finishes in Croatia and Portugal. He’s won just one WRC event (Finland in 2017) but this season’s shown anything can happen, especially at an unpredictable event like the Safari Rally. He’s +150 for another podium finish which could be a nice flyer of a bet.
Predictions for The Safari Rally Kenya
Toyota has dominated at the Safari Rally since its return to the WRC calendar. Last season, the team swept the top four positions; the best finish for a non-Toyota driver was Neuville in fifth, 10 minutes behind Rovanperä.
Though it’s been a season of parity, another Toyota victory looks likely in this WRC Safari Rally Kenya preview. In an unpredictable event, picking experience over recent form is the safest choice. Ogier has the shortest odds and he’s coming off a bad result in Italy, but his experience and prior win here make him the best bet for victory this weekend. If you’re looking for a better payout, either Tänak or Lappi are solid choices but the latter has been in better form lately.
A podium of Ogier (-250), Neuville (-160), and Lappi (+150) would be a good choice as well.
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