Benavidez vs Andrade Pick: The Total is the Best Play in This Contender’s Bout
A Litmus Test at 168 Pounds For Canelo’s Next Opponent?
Benavidez is Moderately Favored Against Andrade
It’s not just the interim WBC super middleweight title on the line when David Benavidez fights Demetrius Andrade. To the winner goes a potential bout against the man himself: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. That should be more than enough motivation to bring out the best in both Benavidez and Andrade, who are undefeated boxing contenders with world-class talents. But as far as the Benavidez vs Andrade pick goes, the best play is on neither but on the total.
🥊 Benavidez vs Andrade 🥊
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Day/Time: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Stream: Showtime Pay-per-view
Action on Both Sides
Boxing bettors are split on both Benavidez and Andrade. The former opened at – 400 on the boxing betting odds . He is now at -500 despite action on both sides. Benavidez momentarily went up to -350 but has now been bet down to his lowest line. We can’t blame the public as both boxers have not tasted defeat and should be close to each other in skill level.
As for the total, it’s been quiet on this front. The line opened at -160 on the total to go over 10.5 rounds. The comeback on the under is +130. Benavidez’s last bout ended in a decision against Caleb Plant and it’s one of only four bouts he did not finish. As for Andrade, six of his last nine fights have gone to a decision.
Benavidez Faces Toughest Test in Andrade
They said it when Benavidez fought Plant: it was his toughest fight. And he passed that with flying colors as he weathered Plant’s early storm to outlast him and win a clear-cut decision. The same can be said against Andrade who could just be a tad more difficult than Plant.
Andrade is a southpaw and Benavidez has not fought many high-level southpaws like him. And while he did not look impressive in his super middleweight debut early this year, he still defeated Desmond Nicholson decisively. If anything, Andrade just cruised in that bout. We have yet to see him push himself.
And Benavidez will do more than push Andrade. He’s nicknamed the “Mexican Monster” (he’s American) by many. That’s due to his immense size and power. Benavidez is 6’2” with a 74.5-inch reach. He typically dwarfs his opponents. Andrade is no small man at 6’0” with a 73.5-inch reach. But Benavidez has the size advantage.
But in boxing weight classes , Benavidez is more natural. And he’s also younger and has faced tougher competition recently. All these give him an edge, hence his line.
Andrade Being Overlooked?
But is the underdog being underestimated? Many factors are working against Andrade, hence why he’s the +350 underdog per the boxing odds. For one, he’s already 35 years old. He is nine years older than Benavidez. Secondly, he is taking a big step up in competition.
Andrade has wins over notable boxers like Liam Williams and Maciej Sulecki. But both are in a lower weight class and do not possess the size and power of Benavidez. The underdog has also been inactive compared to Benavidez.
The former WBO champion has boxed once in the last two years. In comparison, Benavidez has boxed three times. This might also explain why Andrade looked rusty against Nicholson. But now that he’s worked cobwebs out, he could go back at full speed against Benavidez.
But he’ll have to bide his time. Benavidez has gotten into shape and is not just a frontrunner as we saw in his last bout. Andrade must be vigilant for a full 12 rounds. He’s got hefty odds but the Benavidez vs Andrade pick will be wasted if he can’t keep Benavidez at bay.
Question Marks Give the Total at Discounted Odds
We love the price of -160 on the total to go over 10.5 rounds here. Normally, it would be at a shorter line like -200 or so. But there are many unknowns here such as how in-shape Andrade is. He’s also nearing the wrong side of 30 and may not adjust to Benavidez’s power. Three of Benavidez’s last four knockouts were a result of corner stoppages or retirements.
And the Pick is…
The best Benavidez vs Andrade pick here is in the total: go over 10.5 at -160. Benavidez may take a while to figure out Andrade. And despite his unstoppable pressure, he may not get going until the latter half of the fight. Expect Andrade to be ahead via the boxing statistics and scores . But Benavidez will rally and secure a decision or a very late stoppage. Bet: Over 10.5 (-160).
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