Super Bowl LVIII
- Matchup: TBD
- Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
- City: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
- Winner: TBD
SuperBowl 58: Tracking Favorites To Win
The Super Bowl is one of the most heavily bet on sporting events in the world, and its impact on betting and odds cannot be overstated. Prior to the big game, bookmakers and sportsbooks spend weeks analyzing data and statistics to develop NFL odds and betting lines that accurately reflect the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
As the Super Bowl approaches, betting activity intensifies and odds can shift rapidly based on the volume of wagers placed on each team, this can lead to wild swings in the football odds, particularly in the days leading up to the game, as large amounts of money are wagered on one team or the other.
As we approach Super Bowl LVIII, there have been some dramatic shifts in the odds for top contenders; of course, this is something we know happens all the time, but we’re never ready for the major surprises in the mix!
Shifts That Make You Go Hmmm:
The Miami Dolphins are making waves in the Super Bowl race after their impressive Week 3 victory over the Broncos. Their odds have taken a leap from +1300 to +900, signaling a growing belief in their championship potential.
Notably, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s NFL MVP odds have also seen a significant boost, shifting from +600 to +380. The Dolphins are riding high on their recent performance, and fans are buzzing with excitement.
The New Orleans Saints, after a promising 2-0 start, faced a tough setback in Week 3. They suffered a heart-wrenching 18-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers, a bitter pill to swallow for fans who had seen their Super Bowl odds on the rise.
Adding to the adversity, starting quarterback Derek Carr received a diagnosis of an AC joint sprain and is listed as week-to-week. Though Carr’s injury isn’t season-ending, it has impacted the Saints’ Super Bowl aspirations.
Following the NFL Week 3 challenges and Carr’s injury update, the Saints’ Super Bowl odds have widened considerably.
Last week’s odds of +2800 have shifted to +3500. While this change is disappointing, it’s important to note that the Saints are still firmly in contention for Super Bowl 58.
Week 2 Big Winners
Dallas Cowboys: Their odds improved from +1100 to +850 after a convincing win against the New York Jets.
Baltimore Ravens: They pulled off an upset win in Cincinnati. Now, they’re at +1400 to win the Super Bowl.
Miami Dolphins: Their victory over the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football bumped up their Super Bowl odds from +2000 to +1500.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans teamed up and, consequently, their Super Bowl odds improved from +10000 to +7000.
Week 2 Tough Losers
Denver Broncos: After blowing a 21-3 lead, Denver’s odds plummeted from +6500 to +10000.
Arizona Cardinals: Their odds dropped drastically from +40000 to +100000.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields and the Bears struggled against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, resulting in an 0-2 season start. Their Super Bowl odds now sit at +21000.
Cincinnati Bengals: In Cincinnati’s Week 2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, adding to the Bengals’ woes. Their odds slipped from +1400 to +1800.
Aaron Rodgers’ unfortunate Achilles injury in his Jets debut caused a major upset, in spite of them beating the Bills.
The Jets’ Super Bowl LVIII odds plummeted from +1800 to +2500, and, with the confirmation of the Achilles tear, they are now at +6000. The Bills, on the other hand, who lost to the Jets in NFL Week 1 even without their Rodgers, saw odds take a dive from +800 to +1100.
After their go against the Steelers, the San Francisco 49ers have become the favorites for Super Bowl LVIII; their odds improved from +1000 to +475.
Dallas was also impressive with a shutout victory over the Giants: their odds improved from +1400 to +1000. As for Miami’s win over the Chargers, it kicked up their odds from +2500 to +1700. The Bengals didn’t experience such a sharp drop despite a rough loss to Cleveland; their odds went from +1100 to +1400.
The Chiefs, surprising us with a loss to the Lions, have now risen up to being co-favorites with the Eagles to win Super Bowl LVIII.
Their odds to win the SB hadn’t changed until Friday morning; throughout Thursday night, they were the favorites even though they were missing key players like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The Lions, on the other hand, kicked up their odds from +2200 to +1700 with that win over the Chiefs.
Previous Odds Shakeups Since the Last Super Bowl
Signing running back Dalvin Cook made the Jets’ Super Bowl odds stable.
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins didn’t help the Titans’ odds much, since they got worse by going from an average of +7750 to +8120.
Seahawks’ odds significantly improved going towards the NFL Draft, going from +6500 to +4250. This could be attributed to the Rams trading Jalen Ramsey and the uncertainty surrounding San Francisco QB Brock Purdy’s availability.
With Lamar Jackson’s contract extension, the Ravens’ odds went up from +2800 to +2150.
The Jets’ odds went up ever so slightly, from +1500 to +1400, after the Aaron Rodgers trade. Jordan Love, on the other hand, gave the Packers a more significant shift from +3500 to +5000.
Unconfirmed reports of Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets made their odds move from +1800 to +1500, whilst the Dolphins also made waves by trading for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, leading to improved odds from +3000 to +2500.
The Chicago Bears’ odds went up from +7000 to +5500 after a trade with the Panthers, securing a valuable haul of picks and DJ Moore. The departure of Aaron Rodgers seemingly played a role.
The Jets’ odds went from +4000 to +1800 after Aaron Rodgers received permission to speak with New York.
The Saints signed Derek Carr and their odds went up from +4250 to +3750.
Following their Super Bowl LVII victory, the Chiefs once again became favorites after having their odds shift from +550 to +600.
Tom Brady announcing his retirement led to a sharp drop in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds from +3500 to +6500.
Denver’s 2024 Super Bowl odds opened at +4000 but improved to as short as +2800 after acquiring former Saints head coach Sean Payton. Payton’s task is to revamp the struggling Broncos offense.
Early Super Bowl LVIII odds had the Chiefs as +550 favorites, followed by the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles
Super Bowl LVIII Futures Odds
Futures odds for the Super Bowl are typically released in the NFL offseason, but they can be released just days after the previous Super Bowl has ended. These will then fluctuate throughout the regular season and playoffs as teams’ performances and rosters change.
As the 2023 NFL season progresses and more information becomes available about the teams, sportsbooks will begin to release more specific futures odds for Super Bowl #58, which is currently scheduled for February 5, 2024.
| Team | Moneyline *Last Updated: 8/28/23 |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +650 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +700 |
| Buffalo Bills | +900 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1400 |
| New York Jets | +1600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
| Conference | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| AFC Conference | -150 |
| NFC Conference | +120 |
| Conference | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| AFC West | +350 |
| NFC East | +375 |
| AFC East | +375 |
| AFC North | +500 |
| NFC West | +600 |
| NFC North | +1000 |
| NFC South | +1200 |
| AFC South | +1600 |
Super Bowl LVII Recap & Score
How To Read Super Bowl Odds & Spreads
NFL point spreads for the Super Bowl usually manifest as a negative number like -300 or a plus number like +500. These are “American odds” and indicate what you need to bet to win $100 -in the case of negative numbers ($300 to win $100 for -300)- or what you win when you bet $100 ($500 from a $100 bet for +500).
Additionally, “decimal” and “fractional” odds are two other formats you can use. Decimal odds indicate your total payout (your bet + your winnings) while fractional odds show how much you win using the numerator (first number to the left) with the bet you place using the denominator (second number to the right).
These Super Bowl point spreads allow you to bet on who you think will win it next year. As this is such a long-term projection, expect the betting lines to shift as the year progresses. Keep track of the teams to estimate when the best times to bet on them are.
Super Bowl Betting example
Betting on the Super Bowl game is like betting on every NFL game. You have your point spread, moneyline, and total (over/under) along with props. For the Super Bowl, props are ridiculous in number: you can bet on football-related plays, such as a quarterback’s passing yards, or on non-football things, like the color of the national anthem singer’s dress.
As far as outright or futures bets are concerned, betting on more than one team is usually the way to go. Thanks to the parity in the NFL, a handful of teams are lined in the +500 to +900 range to win. Placing a bet on one, two, or even three can increase your odds of winning.
Super Bowl Tips Before Betting
Track the Super Bowl odds through the sportsbook. You will notice the lines shift throughout the season. For example, the Buffalo Bills open as the Super Bowl LVII favorites in the preseason. But after a few losses, the Bills’ odds lengthen making them a more lucrative bet. You can bet them twice or wait longer to see how the market reacts.
What Is the Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl is the annual championship game of the National Football League (NFL), which is the highest level of professional American football in the United States. The game is typically played on the first Sunday in February and brings together the winners of the NFC and AFC conferences to compete for the coveted Vince Lombardi Trophy. It is one of the most-watched television events in the world and is often considered the pinnacle of American sports.
The Super Bowl is more than just a football game, it’s a cultural phenomenon that captivates the nation. Millions of people tune in to watch the game every year, not just for the athletic competition, but also for the spectacle of the halftime show, the entertaining commercials, and the festive atmosphere that surrounds the game.
The Super Bowl has become a showcase for American culture and entertainment, with celebrities and performers from all over the world taking part in the festivities. It has also become an important event for the advertising industry, as companies spend millions of dollars on commercials that air during the game, hoping to capture the attention of the massive audience watching at home.
Super Bowl FAQs
