NFL Draft Recap: Atlanta Makes Shocking Top-10 Pick
Quarterbacks, Offense Dominate First Round
Okay, who had Michael Penix Jr. going No. 8 to the Atlanta Falcons? If you did, at +6600 odds, you got yourself a jackpot on Thursday. The University of Washington quarterback’s selection so early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft destroyed mock drafts. It is also one of the many surprises we cover in our NFL Draft Recap.
It was just part of a night that went against many NFL draft betting odds by the time it was done.
Some of the draft went as expected, especially in the first four picks. The Chicago Bears surprised no one by taking USC’s Caleb Williams at first. It was followed by the Washington Commanders taking LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the New England Patriots going with North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and the Arizona Cardinals selecting Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
But then things got a little crazy …
Quarterbacks Go, But Not In Expected Order
There were several quarterbacks expected to go in this draft after the top three, and Thursday didn’t disappoint, as three other signal callers were gone by pick 12. This set NFL records for the quickest that six quarterbacks were taken in one draft and matched the 1983 draft for most QBs taken in the first round.
We all remember that 1983 draft, right? With Hall of Famers like Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and John Elway being taken, along with Ken O’Brien, Tony Eason, and Todd Blackledge, the draft is one of the most memorable in league history.
Will this one be? Only time will tell, but it certainly surprised many bettors. Michigan’s JJ McCarthy had been expected to be the fourth quarterback taken, but it was his counterpart from this year’s College Football Playoff championship game, Penix, who was fourth off the board. And shockingly, he went to the Falcons, who just signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a massive deal earlier this offseason.
McCarthy didn’t have to wait long to be selected, going 10th to the Minnesota Vikings, who traded up to select the player they think can be their franchise QB. That left Oregon’s Bo Nix as the last signal-caller taken by an NFL team, the Denver Broncos.
With six QBs taken, most sportsbooks had set the over/under for quarterbacks taken in the first round at just 4.5. The over was certainly the right bet there.
Where’s The ‘D’ In Detroit?
Of the 32 selections made Thursday night, 23 of them were offensive players. That meant only nine defensive players, which was under the 10.5 that was the over/under set for the first round. The over was getting -200 odds, while the under was set at +160.
The first defensive NCAAF player didn’t come off the board until UCLA edge Laiatu Latu went to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 15. That was another surprise, as Alabama edge Dallas Turner was the favorite to be the first defensive player taken at even odds.
Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II was second in those odds at +150, followed by Latu at +250. Murphy was the second defensive player taken (No. 16 to the Seattle Seahawks), followed by Turner going at No. 17 to the Vikings.
Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell was the first defensive back taken in this year’s draft, going No. 22 to the Philadelphia Eagles. He was joined by Alabama’s Terrion Arnold (No. 24 to the Detroit Lions) and Clemon’s Nate Wiggins (No. 30 to the Baltimore Ravens) as first-round defensive backs.
That was well below the 5.5 number set for the over/under on defensive backs, though the under was getting the better odds at -400 on that wager.
Receivers Plentiful In First Round
Another interesting part of Thursday’s NFL draft recap was the wide receiver position. This draft was known for the quarterbacks at the top, but wide receiver was also a position with a lot of first-round possibilities.
The over/under for wide receivers taken in the first round was set at 6.5, with the under getting -400 odds and the over +300.
With a late run, the over hit, as seven wide receivers were taken among the first 32 selections. Three of the first nine picks were wide receivers, then three of the final five picks also played wideout.
The Kansas City Chiefs made a big move, trading up to get Texas speedster Xavier Worthy at No. 28. Then the San Francisco 49ers (Florida’s Ricky Pearsall) and Carolina Panthers (South Carolina’s Xavier Legette) closed out Thursday’s festivities by taking wide receivers as well.
Another heralded player on the receiving end of passes, Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, was expected to be a top-10 pick. His draft position over/under of 12.5 had the under at -250 and he was the odds-on favorite to go No. 10 with +150 odds.
Instead, Bowers dropped to 13th, getting selected by the Las Vegas Raiders. Just another of the many NFL odds that were off on draft night.
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