How Many First-Round Trades Will There Be In The 2024 NFL Draft?
We've Added a Bold Claim In Our First-Round Trades Betting Market Analysis
Editor’s Note: The odds switched drastically to the under at -250 following the Zach Wilson trade between the New York Jets and Denver Broncos.
The 2024 NFL Draft’s first round will be held on Thursday night. The first round is expected to consist mainly of offensive players. There could ultimately be six quarterbacks off the board in the first round.
While that’s probably unlikely, it’s not out of the question.
But that’s the thing. If six quarterbacks are potentially first-round worthy, there will likely be lots of trading up for those prospects.
The current line for the first-round trades is at 6.5. However, the Over is sitting at -125, while the Under is at -105 for this market.
We’ll discuss which side to bet on if you consider adding a first-round trades betting slip to your portfolio before draft day. Make sure you find the best online sportsbook with the most profitable line possible for all your NFL Draft bets, including the first-round trades betting slips.
The History Of The Last Two Drafts
In 2022, there were nine first-round trades. In 2023, there were six first-round trades. That’s why the line is currently at 6.5. But it feels like we’ve been talking about so many trades that could happen this year.
While draft analysts like to raise people’s hopes about many trades every NFL season, this year, it feels like that’s what we’ll get.
Potential Trade 1: Pick No. 4
We likely won’t see a trade in the first three picks. The Bears, Commanders, and Patriots all need a franchise quarterback with the first three picks of the NFL draft.
However, the No. 4 pick has the potential to be the first pick traded. It’s more likely that Drake Maye could be drafted with the No. 2 spot. Meanwhile, many analysts believe the Patriots are set on J.J. McCarthy. Therefore, if Jayden Daniels is still available by Pick 4, the Cardinals could consider trading the pick for someone trading up for Daniels.
Potential Trade 2: Pick No. 5
Let’s say the Giants trade up to No. 4 for Daniels. They’d give up pick No. 6 to the Cardinals and would probably be able to trade that No. 6 pick to the Chargers for the No. 5 pick to ensure they get Marvin Harrison Jr.
Within the first five picks of the NFL Draft, we’d be at two trades just like that.
Potential Trade 3: Pick No. 8
The Falcons will consider trading away the No. 8 pick in the NFL Draft. They’ve got Kirk Cousins, so if a team like the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, or Denver Broncos want to trade up for Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix, this would be the pick to get.
We’ll be at three trades if the Falcons trade Pick No. 8.
Potential Trade 4: Pick No. 12
The Denver Broncos really need some depth. While their quarterback situation is unclear, don’t forget that the Broncos just added Zach Wilson to their depth chart in a trade with the Jets. That could mean the Broncos would be open to trading Pick 12 to a team looking for high-end defensive talent.
The first ten picks in the NFL Draft are expected to be offensive players. So, a team trading up to No. 12 could ultimately get the best defensive player in the draft, which would be a solid incentive to trade for Pick No. 12.
With that, we’d be at four trades.
Potential Trade 5: Pick No. 15
There are reports that the Colts are actively looking to trade down from pick No. 15. Again, with so much high-end defensive talent on the board, they can likely find a trade partner if the price is right.
Potential Trade 6: Pick No. 16
The Seahawks are also notorious for trading down. Meanwhile, it’s fair to assume that there will be no cornerback off the board by this pick. But many NFL teams needing cornerback depth would likely pay up to get this Pick.
If they were to trade this pick, the Seahawks would likely end up with another pick in the 20-30 range.
They may also trade out of this pick and make another trade to give us seven draft picks in the first round.
Potential Trade 8: Pick No. 29
The Panthers don’t have the first-round pick after trading the kitchen sink for Bryce Young at quarterback. But suppose Adonai Mitchell or another highly regarded receiver is still on the board. In that case, the Panthers must consider potentially trading into the first round to select a premier wide receiver for Bryce Young.
The Panthers went all in on Young. They can’t give up on him now. They have to build around him and make things work. Adding a top receiver would be a smart decision, so that would be another trade to consider when doing your first-round trades betting.
The Best Bet
The best bet for the first-round market is the Over 6.5. Above, we mentioned eight scenarios that could happen in the first round. We’re probably still missing some that could take place.
The NFL Draft is pure dominos. When one pick shocks the NFL world, trades will transpire quickly. It just takes one wild, unexpected move to change the entire landscape of the draft.
Sports gambling on the NFL Draft could be really profitable if you study the lines heavily and read the news from trusted sources.
But if you aren’t willing to put in all that work, our sports betting tips would be to play it safe with the draft and not go overboard. Again, anything can happen in the draft once one random thing occurs that no one expected.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
