NASCAR Xfinity Series: Bet on Food City 300 Analysis

The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Bristol for the stop on the schedule. While Bristol doesn’t bring high speeds, it brings a lot of contacts. Unlike at many tracks, getting spun out at Bristol doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the end of the driver’s day. Make sure you take in the stats and analysis before you look to bet on the Food City 300.

Change at the Drivers head to Bristol for some short-track racing. Before you bet on the Food City 300, read our analysis on the odds with playoffs near.

There’s been a change atop the NASCAR Xfinity Series Food City 300. After a win at Kansas, Noah Gragson sits firmly atop the standings with 2045 points. Ty Gibbs is still close behind with 2040. Gibbs has been the front-runner all season, so Gragson putting pressure on him down the stretch should make for an interesting ending.

A.J. Allmendinger is eight points behind Gibbs in the playoff standings but is still first in the driver standings. Justin Allgaier is on his tail, sitting just two points behind.

Josh Berry still sits eight points behind Allgaier for fifth.

Who are the Favorites?

Typically, we see either Gibbs or Gragson at the top of the NASCAR Xfinity betting odds board, but this week it’s Allgaier at the top at +250. The one thing Allgaier has over many of his competitors in the Xfinity Series is experience and that proves true this week. While he has just one win in 21 starts at Bristol, he’s finished in the top 10 13 times and 10 finishes inside the top 10.

Gibbs enters Food City 300 close behind at +350. He has just one start at Bristol in the Xfinity Series; an 11th-place finish last season after starting third. To his credit, he did finish the first two stages inside the top 10. Don’t be quick to assume this style of racing isn’t Gibbs’ strength, as he was able to win at Richmond earlier this season.

Gragson enters at +400. Before looking to bet on the Food City 300, it’s always important to do this type of background research to get a better idea of which drivers have performed well in the past. Gragson has three top-10 finishes at Bristol including a victory back in 2020. Gragson has won at Bristol, Richmond, and Martinsville in his career, so he’ll likely be one of the drivers contending late barring something unforeseen.

Josh Berry is next on the odds board at +700. In his only start at Bristol, he finished 35th. He does however have a road-course victory to his name; a victory at Martinsville in April of 2021. Berry has been a top-five driver this season and all it takes is one crazy thing to happen for him to be able to edge out the drivers ahead of him, both in the field and on the odds board.

Best of the Rest

Brandon Jones enters at +1400 on the odds board. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last three starts at Bristol, including a pair of top-five finishes. He placed third back in 2020, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to see Jones finally break through for a win at Bristol.

Austin Hill enters at +1600. He has no Xfinity Series starts at Bristol, but did finish fourth at Martinsville earlier this season.  It remains to be seen whether he will have another consistent run on this type of track or if that fourth-place finish had some luck involved.

Where’s the Value?

The biggest factor when looking at any race, especially when looking to bet on the Food City 300, is value. The price you get a driver at is almost as important as the driver you pick.

Once again, we have Allmendinger as the main focus of the value section. He enters at +1000. Gragson and Gibbs may be ahead of him in the standings, but Allmendinger is still arguably the most consistent. He still has the most top-10 finishes and is the only driver in the current projected playoff standings with zero DNFs.

Going into Darlington three weeks ago, Gragson had as many wins then as Allmendinger does now with three, yet Gragson never really slipped down the odds board past +400. Yet, Allmendinger has been priced over +700 multiple times in the season now. He’s available at +200 for a top-three finish and -150 for a top-five finish.

Allmendinger narrowly edged Austin Cindric in last year’s race at Bristol for the victory with both cars sliding across the finish line sideways. He was sharp into the turns all day, and that’s where Allmendinger has some of the advantages. Going into and coming out of turns at tracks like Bristol is crucial. His circuit-racing background should help out yet again this season.