Haliburton, Pacers Look to Continue Success vs First-Place Bucks
Bucks vs Pacers Spreads: Indy Owns NBA's Best Over Rate (67.7%)
After tipping off 2024 with a 122-113 loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Milwaukee Bucks will seek revenge when the NBA Central Division rivals meet again on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET), this time at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Despite Monday’s defeat, the Bucks opened as 2.5-point favorites before inching up to -3. They’re also -142 on the moneyline, with the Pacers priced +120 to win outright. The Over/Under is 258.5, easily the highest total on the night.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Bucks vs Pacers spreads.
Bucks at Pacers 
Day/Time:
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse; Indianapolis
Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Bucks are 15-18 ATS but have been profitable on the road, covering eight of their 14 games away from home. They’re also 21-12 against the Over/Under, hitting the Over at the third-highest rate (63.6%) in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers are 18-15 ATS, including 9-7 at home. Indiana’s gone Over the projected total in 21 of its 33 games, the league’s highest rate (67.7%).
That’s important to remember when assessing the Bucks vs Pacers spreads.
Easy Does it for Milwaukee
Milwaukee has won nine of its last 11 games to improve to 24-9 under first-year coach Adrian Griffin. The Bucks lead the Central Division and are second in the Eastern Conference, trailing Boston by 2.5 games.
As they continue their quest to finish atop the NBA Finals standings, much of the focus will remain — rightfully so — on their star-studded duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Antetokounmpo, a +1500 pick for MVP, is averaging 30.9 points, with Lillard close behind at 25.5. They’ve accounted for 45.2% of the Bucks’ scoring. As a team, the Bucks rank second in the league in scoring (124.6 PPG).
Antetokounmpo has been incredibly productive against Indiana, averaging 46.3 points and 13.5 rebounds in four meetings this season. That includes a franchise-record 64-point effort in a 140-126 Bucks victory on Dec. 13. Many may remember that Antetokounmpo was involved in an altercation afterward due to a fight over the game ball, and who was entitled to it.
Oddsmakers are understandably bullish on the Bucks, pricing them +200 in the East and +450 to win the NBA Finals. As of Tuesday, only two teams had better odds: Celtics (+340) and Nuggets (+425). The Bucks are also heavy favorites to win the Central at -1600.
The Bucks are just 15-17-1 ATS but have covered in three of their last four games. They have also gone Over the projected total in seven of their previous 11 games.
Pacers Following Haliburton’s Lead
Indiana has responded to a 1-6 stretch with four consecutive wins. That includes Monday’s victory over Milwaukee, in which the Pacers were 8-point underdogs. At 18-14, Indiana has climbed to sixth in the Eastern Conference and second in the Central Division, 5.5 games behind Milwaukee.
Although the Pacers continue to climb the 2023 NBA standings, oddsmakers remain skeptical of their staying power as a legitimate contender. The Pacers are a +4000 longshot to win the Eastern Conference and have NBA Finals odds of +10000.
Those odds appear unlikely to improve anytime soon, even with Tyrese Haliburton performing at a superstar level. Haliburton flirted with a triple-double in Monday’s win, finishing with 26 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds, and is averaging 24.7 points and a league-best 12.1 assists on the season. In the two games prior, he had 20 and 23 assists, respectively.
The Pacers have been prolific offensively, leading the NBA in both scoring (126.4 PPG) and field goal percentage (50.7). However, they also rank second-to-last defensively (124.4 PPG allowed). That’s negated some of their success.
Although the Pacers have gone Under the projected total in five of their last six games, they still own the highest Over rate in the NBA at 67.7%. Bettors should keep that in mind when analyzing the Bucks vs Pacers spreads.
Handicapping the Game
Indiana has had Milwaukee’s number despite the brilliance of Antetokounmpo, winning three of the first four meetings this season. The NBA teams combined to average 249.5 points in those games, and there’s no reason to believe this time will be any different. After all, these are the league’s two highest-scoring teams.
In addition to offensive firepower, this budding rivalry also boasts some bad blood stemming from Antetokounmpo’s career night. The teams didn’t run into any such issues on Monday, but that could change at any moment.
Indiana may be looking up to Milwaukee in the division, but the Bucks are just 8-6 on the road compared to 16-3 at home.
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