Rangers vs Maple Leafs Preview: Red-Hot Teams Meet in Toronto
Offense Meets Defense in This Border Dispute
Odds Have Leafs Favored in Rematch With Rangers
The Toronto Maple Leafs will be slight favorites at -120 when they host the New York Rangers this Tuesday night. Toronto is coming off a 7-0 thrashing of Pittsburgh and is firing on all cylinders despite several critical injuries. But the Rangers, on the other hand, have won two straight since getting blown out by Toronto last week. Could they turn the tables? We dig deeper in this Rangers vs Maple Leafs preview.
Rangers vs Maple Leafs 
Records: New York Rangers (21-7-1) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (16-6-6)
Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Day/Time:
Streaming: MSG
Maple Leafs Heating Up Despite Injuries
Despite all its NHL injuries, Toronto has won 10 of its last 15 games. Thank the offense. Toronto is averaging nearly 3.7 goals per game. It ranks in the top 10 in most offensive categories. And with Auston Matthews back in practice, Toronto should be better. But there is another side to this equation: defense (or lack thereof).
Seven of Toronto’s last eight games have gone over the total. That’s due to Toronto scoring 4+ goals in six games and letting in 3+ in the same number. We can blame some porous goaltending or some bad defending. Both are partly due to injuries.
Joseph Woll, the team’s best goaltender, is out with an injury. And on defense, the Leafs are missing three top-six defensemen. As a result, Toronto is giving up over 32 shots a game and 3.3 goals. And most of this happens at home, where the total has gone over 11 of 15 times. That leads the NHL at 73.3%.
With Toronto’s thin blue line, the Leafs must do what it does best: outscore opponents. And based on the NHL odds, it can do it. However, trying to score three or more goals on the Rangers will be a tall task, even if Toronto did score seven goals on them just a few games ago.
The Rangers are giving up just over 2.8 goals per game. On the road, this slightly decreases to 2.7. Notably, the Rangers have an elite penalty kill at 90.2% when visiting. This is a critical metric in this Rangers vs Maple Leafs preview.
Road Rangers Could Be “Cash” Against Toronto
If New York is to deliver as road underdogs (+100), stifling power plays will just be a fraction of what it needs to do against Toronto. The Leafs are also ranked sixth in terms of goals scored per 60 minutes on 5-on-5 (2.8). The Rangers are a bit further behind at 2.4. But New York is 11-5 (11-4-1) on the road for a good reason: defense.
Under Peter Laviolette, the Rangers have held half their opponents to two goals or fewer. These include Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Boston (twice). They won every game. But when teams hit the three-goal mark, it gets grizzly. The Rangers are just 3-5 (3-4-1). And these three wins came when they held teams to three goals. Opponents that scored 4+ goals all beat New York on the road.
So the Rangers now have the unenviable task of keeping Toronto to under three goals. That might be possible with the current total set to go under 6.5 at -115. Most NHL hockey predictions for tonight could have this game going 4-3 or 3-2. For the Rangers, the latter score is a more realistic path to winning.
Igor Shesterkin should be in goal for the Rangers. He allowed six goals versus Toronto last week, which is unlikely to happen again. He’s averaged a 91.6% save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average with a 4-2-1 record against Toronto in his career.
Bank on the former Vezina Trophy winner to be on his game. Thus, our Rangers vs Maple Leafs preview leans on the ‘under’ on the totals here.
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