UEFA Nations League Third-Place Game: Netherlands vs Italy
European Powerhouses Meet
Netherlands Playing in Front of Home Crowd
In the UEFA Nations League Third-Place game, Netherlands will take on Italy on Sunday. As hosts of the Nations League Finals, the Netherlands will once again play in front of a home crowd. This time, it’s at FC Twente’s home stadium in Enschede. While the Netherlands fell to Croatia in extra time, Italy lost to a late goal from Spain on Thursday. The two sides will play for a bronze medal and pride, on Sunday. Let’s preview the match and look at some of the odds.
UEFA Nations League Third-Place Game
Netherlands vs Italy
Date, time:
Location: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands
Head-to-Head
Of Italy’s head-to-head matchups, this one has produced some of the best soccer bets. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last seven matches vs. the Netherlands. Italy and the Netherlands last met in 2020, and the UEFA Nations League group-stage match finished in a draw. Italy had won the reverse fixture, 1-0. Italy have won three of the last five matches between these sides, and the Oranje haven’t won in this fixture since Euro 2008.
Netherlands Fall in Front of Home Fans
- Semifinal Result: 2-4 L vs. Croatia (AET)
- Key Injuries: D Matthijs de Ligt, F Memphis Depay
The Netherlands, hosts of the UEFA Nations League finals, entered the week as Nations League favorites. They were also even-money favorites for their semifinal match vs. Croatia.
The Oranje got the match’s first goal as Donyell Malen finished from a Mats Wieffer pass. The Netherlands went into the half in the lead, but Croatia’s Andrej Kramaric equalized from the penalty spot ten minutes into the second half.
Croatia’s Mario Pasalic gave the visitors a lead nearly 20 minutes later, and the Oranje’s Noa Lang equalized right at the death. The Netherlands conceded twice in extra time and lost 4-2 at home.
Defender Matthijs de Ligt pulled out of the squad just before the semifinal, which meant Lutsharel Geertruida made just his second Netherlands appearance. The Netherlands backline was in disarray as Croatia had no problems creating chances.
The Oranje conceded two penalties in the match, and keeper Justin Bijlow couldn’t keep either of them out. No matter who has played in goal for the Netherlands recently, they’ve conceded many goals. In March Euro qualifiers, the Netherlands lost 4-0 to France. Ronald Koeman’s tenure has not started according to plan, and the Netherlands conceded 2.5 goals per game in their last four.
Italy Outclassed by Spain
- Semifinal Result: 1-2 L vs. Spain
- Key Injuries: M Matteo Pessina, F Domenico Berardi
Italy fell behind early in their match vs. Spain as a Leonardo Bonucci mistake led to a Yeremy Pino goal. A resilient Azzurri side equalized just a few minutes later as they won a penalty. Ciro Immobile stepped up and converted and Italy nearly had a go-ahead goal.
Davide Frattesi thought he had his first Italy goal, but he was ruled offside by VAR. Italy later struggled to get a foothold in the game, and Roberto Mancini had to make two halftime substitutions.
The Azzurri didn’t manage to keep much of the ball after the half, and Spain had many opportunities. Initially, Spain couldn’t capitalize, but La Furia Roja got a winner in the 88th minute.
That sent Italy to the UEFA Nations League Third-Place game vs. the Netherlands. It’s unclear how much Mancini will shake up his lineup here, but he does have some options on the bench. We didn’t see any of Mateo Retegui or Wilfried Gnonto on Thursday, but they’ve both provided sparks in their short Italy careers.
It was clear Bonucci wasn’t 100 percent in the match vs. Spain, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another defender slot in. The Inter Milan trio of Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi, and Matteo Darmian is available.
The group was very effective when they shared the field for Inter and guided them to the Champions League final. Italy won the third-place game last time around and will go for another bronze medal here.
Match Analysis and Odds
The Netherlands are once again favorites on home soil, but they’ve looked shaky during the last few international breaks. The odds of the UEFA Nations League Third-Place game price the Oranje as +130 moneyline favorites in this pick’em. The Netherlands also come in at -145 odds to cover, while Italy pk sits at +115.
Neither team played particularly well during the week so it’s only fair to expect some adjustments. Davide Frattesi was a bright spot for Italy vs. Spain, though and it’ll be interesting to see if the midfielder gets another go.
A bunch of talented Dutch players started on the bench vs. Croatia and Noa Lang may get an opportunity here after sending the match into extra time on Wednesday.
Six of the last seven times these teams have matched up, it has finished with two goals or fewer. Still, over 2.5 goals display -135 odds for Sunday’s game. The Italians are +200 moneyline underdogs, while a draw is priced at +245 odds.
The match would go into extra time and potentially penalties in that scenario. Overall, the Netherlands come in at -150 odds to get third place. Italy, who won third in 2021, are +120 underdogs to come home with bronze.
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