Indy 500 Betting Preview: Historic qualifying predicts close fight for victory

The biggest open-wheel racing event in America is here. The Indianapolis 500 kicks off this Memorial Day weekend and the most significant event on the IndyCar schedule likely won’t disappoint.

The 107th Indy 500 comes during one of the most exciting IndyCar seasons. Five races have yielded five different winners. The IndyCar standings are close at the top: 2021 champion Álex Palou leads Pato O’Ward by six points. Forty-three points cover the top six drivers.

Qualifying was historically close, with Palou taking the pole with a four-lap run of 234.217 mph. He beat Rinus Veekay by just 0.006 mph and Felix Rosenqvist by 0.103 mph. That margin makes this the closest front row in Indianapolis 500 history.

The stage is set for a thrilling Indy 500. Here’s your primer for the biggest IndyCar event of the year.

IndyCar standing leaders top the odds

Palou’s fresh off a dominant win in Indianapolis in the GMR Grand Prix. He led 52 of 85 laps of the race and held off a challenge from Christian Lundgaard. He’s been the most consistent IndyCar driver this season, finishing at least eighth in every race. Palou is the favorite at +650 in Indy 500 betting between that and his pole position. One fact to consider: only one driver has won from the pole since 2010 (Simon Pagenaud in 2019).

O’Ward is next in odds at +750. O’Ward’s been the most consistent driver behind Palou. Aside from a 17th-place finish in Long Beach, he’s finished at least fourth.

He has the most podiums this season (three) of any driver on the grid. He’s also raced well in the Indy 500 before. Three races have yielded sixth-, fourth-, and second-place finishes. He starts fifth for the Indy 500 and could make a jump up again to victory.

Tight group close behind the odds leaders

Eight drivers are bunched behind Palou and O’Ward, led by Scott Dixon at +900. The six-time IndyCar champion has one Indy 500 win (2008). Dixon’s best result so far in 2023 was third in the season opener in St. Petersburg. Three other top-10 results have him seventh in the IndyCar standings.

He’s always stayed competitive in Indy but couldn’t earn victories after starting first or second in the last three runnings. He starts sixth this time, and making up ground could be tough.

Alexander Rossi and Veekay are tied at +1000. Veekay came incredibly close to pole in qualifying and will likely be in the mix for the win. Rossi starts seventh but showed great pace all throughout the qualifying weekend. Of the two, Veekay’s looked better leading up to the race.

Rossi and O’Ward’s teammate Rosenqvist is next at +1100. The Swede is coming off his first top-five finish of the year at the GMR Grand Prix. He came very close to pole position and will be another threat for victory.

Scott McLaughlin, defending Indy 500 winner Marcus Ericsson, two-time Indy 500 winner Takuma Sato, and Santino Ferrucci are all tied in odds at +1200.

McLaughlin’s only raced in two Indy 500 events and finished 29th and 20th. He qualified 14th for the race, so this is more of a nod to his pace in 2023. He’s fifth in the IndyCar standings thanks to a win in Alabama and two other top-10 finishes. He may find it tough starting farther back.

After strong showings in the first three races, Ericsson led the standings for a while. But he’s dropped to third in the championship after finishing 10th in Alabama and eighth in the GMR Grand Prix. He’s starting the Indy 500 in 10th. History is not on his side, either. The last driver to win consecutive Indy 500 races was Hélio Castroneves in 2001-02.

Sato, an oval racer only in 2023, makes his second appearance this season and starts eighth. His win in 2017 came from fourth on the grid, and his success in 2020 came from third. Both years were his best qualifying results. In 11 other Indy 500 races, he’s started 10th at best and finished inside the top 10 once (third in 2019). He’s close enough to the front to challenge for a win especially considering his track record.

Ferrucci is one of the surprises of the qualifying weekend. Ferrucci has yet to crack the top 20 in 2023 besides his 11th-place result in Long Beach. Many were surprised when he made it to the top four in qualifying. Given his track record in Indy, Ferrucci is a dark horse for the win on Sunday.

In four Indy 500 events, he’s qualified at least 15th but finished at least 10th every time. His fourth place in 2020 is his best result, but his best career start in Indy could lead to an even better finish this Sunday.

Longer shots worth considering for the Indy 500

Defending IndyCar Series champion Will Power (+1600) qualified 12th for Sunday’s race. Power won the event in 2018 and has been solid but unspectacular in 2023.

One podium and two other top-eight results have him 52 points behind Palou in the IndyCar standings. A win in Indy would go a long way in defending his title. He’s had mixed results in the last few years in Indy (15th last year, 30th in 2021, 14th in 2020) but starts closer to the front this time.

Longtime IndyCar driver Tony Kanaan (+1800) is racing in his only event of 2023. The 2013 Indy 500 winner managed third last year, so his ninth-place qualifying isn’t too surprising. He spent a decade at the start of his career coming so close to victory before his triumph in 2013.

It’d be an incredible story for him to take another win 10 years after his breakthrough. His pace — as well as that of the other Arrow McLaren drivers O’Ward, Rosenqvist, and Rossi — make it a strong possibility.

Indy 500 predictions

It’s hard to argue against Palou. He’s the championship leader coming off a dominant win in Indianapolis two weeks ago. But it’s historically been challenging for polesitters to win.

Just 21 drivers starting from the pole have won in the 103 races. And Palou’s never won on an oval before. Of the favorites, O’Ward looks like the better bet. He’s improved year over year in Indy and has won on other ovals (Iowa, Texas).

Ferrucci looks promising if you want longer odds with a better payout. His track record of finishing much, much higher than he starts looks good, considering he’ll be starting Sunday’s race in fourth. If that’s not a big enough payout, backing Kanaan for his second Indy 500 win a decade after his first is a good play.

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