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NASCAR Xfinity Series: Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Odds & Analysis

Drivers Head to Lone Star State

The NASCAR Xfinity race heads south to the Lone Star state of Texas. Here, we’ll dissect the current Xfinity Series standings. We’ll also give you everything you need to know about the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 odds and analysis of said odds.

This race at Texas Motor Speedway is the first of the Xfinity Series playoffs. The field starts at 12 drivers and will be cut down to eight after the race at Charlotte coming up on October 8th.

How they Rank

What Noah Gragson has managed to do in the last month has been nothing short of downright impressive. Not only has he taken the checkered flag in each of the last three races, but he has come from behind to take a double-digit lead in the playoff standings after Ty Gibbs had held the top spot for much of the summer.

As it currently sits, Gragson has 2051 points with Gibbs still in relative stricking distance with 2,038. The difference between Gibbs and the third and fourth-place drivers is much closer.

Justin Allgaier recently overtook A.J. Allmendinger for third in the playoff standings. The margin remains slim though, as this could flip back and forth many times before season’s end. Allgaier sits just one point ahead of Allmendinger with 2,033 points.

Rounding out the top five is Josh Berry, 10 points behind Allmendinger. Behind Berry is Austin Hill with 2016 points. Brandon Jones sits seventh with 2010 points and Jeremy Clements eighth with 2005 points.

Sam Mayer is currently ninth with 2005 points, as Clements holds the tiebreaker. As a result, he will hope for solid finishes the rest of the way, as he is on the outside looking in. Daniel Hemric, Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg make up the rest of the playoff field all still within striking distance of that eighth spot.

Who are the Favorites?

Allgaier enters atop the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 odds board at +320. As has been the case many times this season, Allgaier has an extensive track record at Texas. This is far from the norm, as many Xfinity Series drivers are lucky to have three or four races at a particular track.

Allgaier has 24 starts at Texas and has finished in the top five in four of the last five, including a second-place finish in June of 2021. Will this be the race where Allgaier ends his Texas winless streak?

Close behind is Gragson at +350. Winning four races in a row would be an incredible feat, and that’s what’s on the line for him at Texas this week. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, as he has a second and third-place finish on his resume. He also qualified first for the race at Texas in the spring. He led at the end of the first stage and fifth after the second before his day ended in a crash,

As for Gibbs, he enters with +400 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 betting odds. It’s largely based of the talent of Gibbs and what he’s been able to do this year rather than experience and past finishes. Gibbs finished 12th in his only start at Texas back in the spring. He failed to place in the top 10 in either of the first two stages.

Best of the Rest

Next is a name we haven’t seen much of this season, but John Hunter Nemechek enters at +700 on the Andy’s Frozen Custard odds board. Nemechek won the fall race at Texas, and led 92 laps in the process. In four starts at Texas, Nemechek has three top-five finishes and has never finished outside of the top 10.

Josh Berry is +800 on the Andy’s Frozen Custard odds board. He has just two starts at Texas for his NASCAR Xfinity Series career, the best being a seventh-place finish back in the spring. He did manage to get to the front and lead for 46 laps… likely why the oddsmakers are rather high on him.

Mayer enters at +1000 odds with two starts at Texas under his belt. He placed third at Texas in the spring. Jones comes in at +1200 and has quite a bit of experience at Texas, though never a win. He does however have two career top-five finishes.

Where’s the Value?

Once again, Allmendinger is available at double-digit odds at +1200. He started on the pole in two of his last three starts at Texas. He’s also placed in the top 10 in all three of his starts at Texas. Allmendinger is a skilled enough driver to at least get a top five finish here, considering he’s placed sixth twice.

Offering arguably the best value on the board is Daniel Hemric at +4000. He has three top-five finishes at Texas, including a second-place finish in the fall race last season and a third-place finish back in 2018. Hemric can be had at +700 for a top-three finish and +400 to finish in the top five.

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