Betting Trends Backing Defending NBA Champ Nuggets Over Warriors

Warriors vs Nuggets H2H: Denver Remains Slight Home Favorite

The Denver Nuggets look as advertised to start the NBA season. While expectations are high for the defending champions, they’ve cleared practically every bar to date. Next up on Wednesday (10:10 p.m. ET) is a showdown with the Golden State Warriors, a fellow perennial contender in the Western Conference.

While Golden State opened as a 5-point underdog, it’s now down to +3.5 (-115). Meanwhile, Denver is -3.5 (-105) on the spread. The projected total is 227.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Keep in mind, that the total has gone Over in six of the last eight meetings between these teams. Let’s break down those betting trends and more in our Warriors vs Nuggets H2H odds preview.

Warriors logo Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Nuggets logo

Location: Ball Arena; Denver
Streaming: ESPN

Warriors vs Nuggets Betting Trends

The Golden State Warriors are 4-2 against the spread on the road and 4-4 overall. The total has gone Under in five of their eight games. Conversely, the Denver Nuggets are 5-3 ATS, including 4-1 at home. The total has gone Under in eight of the Nuggets’ last 11 games dating to last season. That’s important to remember when making Under/Over NBA predictions.

So Far, So Dominant

The Denver Nuggets keep rolling. The defending NBA champions are now 7-1 following Monday’s 134-116 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. A 6.5-point favorite, Denver got a game-high 35 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists from Nikola Jokic to cover the spread for the third straight game.

It was Jokic’s third triple-double this season and the 108th of his career, surpassing LeBron James and Jason Kidd for the fourth most in NBA history. The only players with more are Russell Westbrook (198), Oscar Robertson (181) and Magic Johnson (138).

Jokic is now averaging 28.4 points, 12.9 rebounds and 8.4 assists. Accordingly, he is a +300 favorite to win his third NBA MVP award.

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Oddsmakers understandably remain bullish on Denver. The Nuggets — who were projected for an NBA-best 54.5 wins — currently have the best NBA title odds of any Western Conference team at +500. Across the NBA, only the Boston Celtics (+375) and Milwaukee Bucks (+400) are deemed better bets.

Few teams have been as dominant. The Nuggets have beaten opponents by an average of 10.8 points, the third-largest point differential in the NBA. They lead the league in shooting efficiency (51.5%) and are top 10 in both offensive and defensive scoring. Keep that in mind when assessing the Warriors vs Nuggets H2Hodds.

Curry Scorching from 3

The Golden State Warriors stayed hot Monday, defeating the Detroit Pistons 120-109 behind 34 points from Stephen Curry. A 9-point favorite, Golden State covered the spread for the first time in four games.

Golden State now sits atop the Pacific Division at 6-2. Despite that, the Phoenix Suns remain a slight +200 favorite to win the division over the Warriors (+225). The Warriors are also +650 to win the Western Conference and remain on the short list of NBA title contenders at +1200.

The Warriors are largely led by Curry, who’s averaging 30.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He’s also shooting 53%, including 47.5% from beyond the arc. His 5.9 3-pointers per game lead the NBA. As such, Curry is among the frontrunners to win his third MVP at +1000.

Like Denver, expectations are high for Golden State. The Warriors are projected for 47.5 wins. They’ve surpassed that total three of the last four years, including in their title-winning season in 2021-22 (53-29). If healthy, the Warriors are certainly capable of another 50-win season. There’s no question.

Handicapping the Game

Golden State is a legitimate title contender. So long as Curry stays healthy, the Warriors have the star power to beat practically anybody. But clearly, the road to the NBA Finals still runs through Denver in the West. It’s not too early on the NBA schedule to slap those expectations on the Nuggets.

Denver has covered the spread in its last five games against Golden State and is 4-1 SU, according to Warriors vs Nuggets H2H odds. On top of that, the Nuggets continue to have a decided edge at home (5-0 in 2023-24).

As strange as it sounds, Denver might not be getting enough respect in this spot as a 3.5-point favorite. Look for recent trends to continue as it takes care of business in the Mile High City.

For NBA betsodds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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