Liberty vs Fever Betting Analysis: Stewart Too Much to Handle

After an optimistic start, the Indiana Fever have dropped seven straight games to fall back down the WNBA standings. Now in comes the New York Liberty for the final game before the All-Star break. The Liberty have been as good as advertised, living up to their reputation as a “Super Team.”

New York opened as an 8.5-point favorite (-110) and -450 to win outright, with Indiana priced at +360. The projected total is 167.5 (-110). Read on as we break down the odds in our Liberty vs Fever betting analysis preview.

Liberty Standing Firm

In many ways, the season’s first half has gone just as expected for the New York Liberty. At 13-4 entering today’s WNBA games, the Liberty own the second-best record in the league and have established themselves as the biggest threat to the Las Vegas Aces’ title defense. A few other teams are in the mix — mainly the Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics — but nobody outside of Las Vegas can match New York’s star power.

Although the Liberty’s WNBA championship odds have slightly dropped from +140 to +225 since the preseason, they remain second on the board. The Aces’ have improved from +115 to -225.

New York has won three straight and seven of its last eight, with the lone loss coming June 29 against — yep, you guessed it — Las Vegas. Breanna Stewart has been New York’s top scorer in six of those games. The five-time All-Star ranks second in the league in scoring (23.4) and is tied for first in rebounding (9.8), living up to the reputation that followed her from Seattle.

Indiana had no answer for Stewart in a 90-73 loss on May 21. Stewart set a new career high and franchise record with 45 points on 15-of-21 shooting. She poured in 19 points in the first quarter, including four of her six 3-pointers. Altogether, the Liberty shot 48.5% from the field and hit 14 3s. Keep that in mind as you assess the odds in our Liberty vs Fever betting analysis.

Injuries Hit Indy

The Indiana Fever have dropped seven straight to fall to 5-14. Despite sitting 10th place in the 2023 WNBA standings, they remain just 3.0 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot.

As expected, No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston has been a big contributor. The former South Carolina star is averaging 15.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks, solidifying herself as the heavy Rookie of the Year favorite. She’s also shooting an WNBA-best 61.9% from the floor and 82.8% at the free-throw line.

The Fever were an afterthought in 2022, finishing a franchise-worst 5-31. Their 20-game losing streak, which covered parts of two seasons, matched the longest in WNBA history. While the future is starting to look brighter, the Fever are still struggling to put it all together.

Injuries are now a culprit. NaLyssa Smith, the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, suffered a stress fracture in her left foot and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. It’s obviously a big loss. Smith was averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists primarily alongside Boston. The Fever will also be without fellow 2022 first-round pick Lexie Hull because of a broken nose. Hull was averaging 5.7 points and 3.1 rebounds.

Currently, Indiana is listed at +330 to make the postseason and -400 to miss it. It has the second-longest WNBA title odds at +20000.

Handicapping The Game

Finally, the Fever are moving in the right direction. It certainly took long enough. They haven’t made the postseason since franchise legend Tamika Catchings retired in 2016. They still probably won’t this year. But, at long last, there’s optimism. Boston is a future star. That doesn’t mean, however, they’re ready to compete with New York. The Liberty have already beat them once handily, and they may do so again, especially without Smith and Hull. That’s just the reality of where things stand. Can they stop Stewart? Unlikely. The Liberty are shaping up to be comfortable favorites in our Liberty vs Fever betting analysis preview.

For WNBA betting lines, news, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com

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