Mercury vs Aces Odds: Does Last-Place Phoenix Stand a Chance?

The Phoenix Mercury haven’t won back-to-back games all season. It seems hard to believe given how highly the Mercury were thought of in the preseason. If you’ll recall, they had the fourth-best odds (+1800) to win the WNBA title.

Can things get much worse? Well, perhaps. Tuesday, the Mercury will visit the defending champion Las Vegas Aces in their final game before this weekend’s All-Star break. Las Vegas is a 17.5-point favorite (-110) after opening at -16.5. It is also -1650 to win outright, with Phoenix priced at +950. The projected total is 170 (-110).

Read on as we assess the Mercury vs Aces odds.

First Time, Long Time

The Las Vegas Aces rebounded from a rare blemish by hammering the Minnesota Lynx 113-89 on Sunday. Guard Kelsey Plum, who sat out Friday’s 80-78 loss to the Dallas Wings with a non-COVID illness, scored a career-high 40 points on 14-of-18 shooting in her return.

The Aces improved to 17-2 and clinched a berth in the Commissioner’s Cup final, an in-season competition between the league’s 12 teams for a prize pool of $500,000. Las Vegas will face either Connecticut or New York, the WNBA’s other “Super Team.”

Nothing that’s happened within the last week changes Las Vegas’ outlook. The Aces remain a heavy WNBA Finals favorite at -200, an increase from +115 in the preseason. The Liberty are next in line at +250, with Connecticut a distant third (+1500).

The Aces have an embarrassment of riches on offense, led by reigning WNBA Most Valuable Player A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and, of course, Plum. And then there’s seven-time All-Star Candace Parker, who did not play Sunday because of a right ankle injury.

While the 37-year-old Parker’s numbers are down — she is averaging career lows in points (9.0) and rebounds (5.4) — she’s still prominent enough to swing the Mercury vs Aces odds. Kiah Stokes received a start in her absence, contributing seven rebounds and three blocks across 25 minutes against Minnesota.

Any Hope in Phoenix?

At 4-14, the Phoenix Mercury currently share the league’s worst record with Seattle. Head coach Vanessa Nygaard was fired after 12 games, and Jim Pitman announced his plans to retire as general manager following the season.

Safe to say, things haven’t gone as planned for the Mercury. Yet, they’re still just 3.5 games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the 2023 WNBA standings.

Phoenix has done nothing to inspire much confidence. That said, so long as Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi remain healthy, the Mercury stand a realistic chance to sneak into the field. Of course, that’s not saying much about the teams around them, specifically Los Angeles, Indiana and Seattle.

Griner, who will be making her ninth All-Star appearance this weekend in Las Vegas, is averaging 19.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. She’s coming off a 29-point, 11-rebound performance in Sunday’s 78-72 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks, which snapped a three-game losing streak. It was Griner’s first double-double since June 2 and third this season. She didn’t play in the first meeting with Las Vegas, a 99-79 loss on June 21.

Notably, defense remains an issue for Phoenix. The Mercury are allowing 85.2 points per game (fourth-most in the WNBA) and have been outscored by an average of 8.2 points.

Handicapping The Game

This is shaping up to be a big mismatch. Must we go on? Ok, sure thing, we will. Las Vegas is the WNBA’s clear-cut best team. Like last season, all roads to the title run through Sin City. There’s no question. The Aces have a plethora of All-Stars, led by Wilson, who leads the WNBA in blocks (2.2) and is also top 10 in scoring (19.4) and rebounding (9.3).

Griner has been outstanding in her return to the sport, but the Mercury simply don’t have the depth to keep up with Las Vegas. Realistically speaking, nobody does. That’s why the Aces have a winning percentage close to .900. Diana Taurasi is 41, and Skylar Diggins-Smith remains out (personal), leaving Griner to do much of the heavy lifting. That’s a tall ask.

Based on that, when the Mercury vs Aces odds open, expect Las Vegas to be a double-digit favorite.

For WNBA betting tips, news, odds and more, visit pointspreads.com
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