Mavericks vs Lakers Preview: Injuries Loom in Star-Studded Matchup
Luka Doncic and LeBron James On Injury Reports
Lakers Favored at Home With Stars “Questionable”
Luka Doncic and LeBron James are listed as “questionable” for this marquee NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Lakers. Still, the oddsmakers are plugging the Lakers as 3.5-point favorites as the hosts. Anthony Davis, James’s sidekick star, is likely to play as is Dereck Lively, Dallas’ rookie big man. So how will the potential absences of the two superstars impact this Mavericks vs Lakers preview?
Mavericks vs Lakers 
Day/Time:
Records: Mavericks (24-17)/Lakers (20-21)
Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Doncic vs James: Who Means More To Their Team?
Who will impact the NBA betting picks more? Dallas is 3-4 straight up when Doncic does not play while the Lakers are 2-2. Doncic has put up MVP-caliber stats this NBA season and has averaged 31.5 points, 12.5 assists, and nine rebounds in two games against the Lakers.’
“I have no idea. But I hope everybody goes, hopefully, everybody came out of this game healthy,” Kidd told reporters in regards to Doncic’s availability for the game. “I hope the California sun helps heal us, we’ll see.”
Thanks to Doncic, the Mavericks have won seven of their last eight games against the Lakers and are 10-1 against NBA spreads (ATS) in their last 11. Dallas has also covered its last three games as an underdog versus Los Angeles.
As for James and the Lakers, they are not doing too hot. They upset Oklahoma City but are still just 10-12 ATS at home. Los Angeles is also only 11-17 against NBA teams with a record of .500 or better. We’ve seen this before: the Lakers go through these midseason slumps.
That’s why the Lakers have been a terrible team to back on the betting lines. Since 2019, the Lakers have had the fifth-worst cover rate in the NBA at 47.2% (184-206-4). It’s not much better as a home favorite at 46% (64-75-1).
James is averaging 24.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.5 assists. He’s still producing All-Star stats. But sometimes this is for naught. The Lakers are just 7-8 in James’s 15 highest-scoring games. And the team is 0-2 when he’s produced a triple-double. So he can’t carry teams as well as he used to.
Whopping Totals: A Shootout Incoming?
With or without the two superstars, the oddsmakers have heavily lined the total at 244 points. It opened at 239.5 but got bet up in a hurry. The last Mavericks-Lakers game totaled 252 points. But if we look at their last 10 games, the average total has been nowhere near 244 points: 223.3 with Dallas holding a five-point edge.
We usually tout betting under when we have totals at 240+ points. We’re not making an exception in this Mavericks vs Lakers preview. All three Lakers games that had a total of 240+ went under. And for Dallas, the ‘under’ is 5-4-0 with a similar total.
Folks betting online are generally “squares” (average joes) and they tend to bet a result they want to see. What average fan does not want to see a high-scoring back-and-forth between Doncic’s and James’s teams? Kyrie Irving is also coming off a 41-point performance and he plays some must-watch basketball.
But the best NBA pick this Jan. 17 could be to bet ‘under’ on this lofty total. Unless the game goes to overtime, which is possible as the last five meetings between Dallas and Los Angeles were decided by no more than four points, this game is likely going under. Four of their last five meetings have gone under the totals.
So as much as we’d like an offensive showcase, our Mavericks vs Lakers preview expects more of a defensive matchup. Expect an NFL playoff atmosphere as the Lakers are in desperate need to win while Dallas looks to move up the NBA standings.
For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
