Mercury vs Liberty Odds: 2023 Keeps Getting Worse for Phoenix

In May, the Phoenix Mercury were a +1800 pick to win the WNBA title. In other words, certainly not a favorite, but far from a longshot.

My how things have changed.

A quarter into the 40-game season, Phoenix is now tied for the longest odds at +2000. It’s a reflection of a dismal start, in which they’ve gone 3-12 and fired their head coach.

Unfortunately for the Mercury, things might get worse before they get better. Next up on the schedule, Wednesday at 7pm, are the New York Liberty, a newly anointed “Super Team.” After opening as a 12.5-point favorite, New York is now up to -14 (-110). The Liberty are -1650 to win outright, with Phoenix priced at +950. The over/under has climbed from 162.5 to 164. Read on as we assess the Mercury vs Liberty odds in our betting preview.

Beatable Yet Still Dominant

Sure, New York hasn’t been as dominant as say, Las Vegas, the WNBA’s other “Super Team.” Still, it’s hard to find much fault in the Liberty’s performance over the first-quarter mark of the regular season.

The Liberty are still the biggest threat to 15-1 Las Vegas, and it’s not particularly close, especially when you factor in the age (Washington) and health (Connecticut) of some of the other top WNBA teams.

The Aces topped the Liberty 98-81 last week in the teams’ first meeting this year. The Liberty then rebounded to beat Seattle 81-66, improving their record to 11-4.

They currently own the best winning percentage (.733) in the Eastern Conference and second-best in the WNBA. As such, New York is currently priced at +235 to win the WNBA championship, behind Las Vegas (-225).

As expected, forward Breanna Stewart has been a catalyst in New York’s success. Stewart, one of New York’s big-ticket offseason acquisitions, is third in the league in scoring (22.0 PPG) and fourth in rebounding (9.8). She’s also averaging 3.2 combined blocks and steals.

Because of that, Stewart is now the -150 favorite to win her second Most Valuable Player Award. Stewart collected her first in 2018, when she averaged 21.9 points and 8.4 rebounds and led the Storm to the WNBA title.

Tough Times in the Desert

Is there a more disappointing team in the WNBA than Phoenix? Umm, no. The Mercury own the league’s worst record at 3-14 and have already fired their coach. Vanessa Nygaard finished her year-plus tenure with a 17-31 mark.

With an aging roster, Phoenix’s future looks a bit bleak. Diana Taurasi, the WNBA’s all-time leading scorer, is 41 years old. Brittney Griner, back from Russia and still productive, is 32. Skylar Diggins-Smith, still away on maternity leave, is also 32. The Mercury didn’t own a pick in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. Same goes for last year.

The Mercury promoted Nikki Blue to temporarily replace Nygaard, hoping she can salvage what’s quickly deteriorating into a lost season. However, in reality, she doesn’t have much of a chance. In addition to being at the bottom of the standings, the Mercury have the league’s worst point differential (minus-9.2). That’s important to remember as you assess the Mercury vs Liberty odds.

Handicapping The Game

New York has overwhelmed most of its opponents this season. Based on what we’ve seen to this point, that should continue Wednesday. Phoenix has been terrible, especially on the road.

The 6-foot-9 Griner is a tough matchup for anyone. After a year off from basketball, she’s returned to shoot 61.1% and will be Phoenix’s lone representative at the July 15 All-Star Game in Las Vegas. Only Indiana’s Aliyah Boston, the No. 1 pick in April’s draft, has been better (61.8). Still, New York is way deeper and more talented across the board.

The Mercury haven’t proven capable of beating hardly anyone, let alone the title-contending Liberty. As such, the Mercury vs Liberty odds should slant heavily in favor of New York.

For WNBA betting news, odds, analysis and more, visit pointspreads.com

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