Resurgent Golden State Looms as Underdog vs Denver on Christmas
Warriors vs Nuggets Preview: Denver Holding Steady at -5.5
The NBA will hold its traditional quintuple-header on Christmas Day, with the second of five games featuring the defending champion Denver Nuggets hosting the Golden State Warriors (2:30 p.m. ET).
A majority of bettors are backing the Nuggets, who are 5.5-point favorites and -225 on the moneyline. Conversely, Golden State is +5.5 on the spread and +185 to win outright.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down the NBA game odds in our Warriors vs Nuggets preview.
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Date, time:
Location: Ball Arena; Denver
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
Betting Trends
The Golden State Warriors are 12-15 ATS but have covered in six of their last 10 games. The Warriors have also gone Over the projected total in five of their last six games and are 16-11 against the Over/Under.
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are 13-15-1 ATS but 5-1 in their last six games. The Nuggets are also just 11-18 against the Over/Under, the lowest cover rate (37.9%) in the NBA.
That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Warriors vs Nuggets preview.
Sputtering Out of the Gate
Have the Golden State Warriors started to turn a corner? Time will tell, but recent signs are encouraging. The Warriors have won three straight, including a 132-126 overtime victory over Boston on Tuesday.
At +4.5, Golden State improved to 3-9 SU but 8-4 ATS an underdog. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson hit six 3-pointers apiece, and Curry paced all scorers with 33 points.
Despite the Warriors’ underwhelming 13-14 start, oddsmakers expect them to turn around their fortunes sooner than later. In fact, according to NBA futures, the Warriors are +2800 to win the Finals. We should note, though, they were +1800 prior to Draymond Green’s indefinite suspension. The Warriors are also +1000 to win the Pacific Division, the division’s biggest longshot.
Whether they can indeed improve upon their uncharacteristically slow start will largely depend on Curry. The two-time MVP and nine-time All-Star is averaging a healthy 28.2 points on 41.6% shooting from 3. His 4.8 3-pointers per game lead the league by a wide margin, with Dallas’ Luka Doncic the next in line at 3.8.
As Goes Jokic, So Goes the Denver
The Denver Nuggets have won five of their last six games to improve to 19-10. That includes a sparkling 11-2 record at home.
Accordingly, the Nuggets have separated themselves as +225 favorites to win the Western Conference. They’re also +450 to defend their NBA title, matching Milwaukee for the second-best odds in the league. Only Boston (+375) is currently a bigger title favorite.
As is usually the case with Denver, everything starts — and ends — with Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP and five-time All-Star is off to another terrific start, averaging 26.5 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.3 assists. Earlier this month, according to NBA records,the 6-foot-11 Jokic became the first NBA player with 10 triple-doubles in seven consecutive seasons.
Already, Jokic is receiving heavy consideration for another MVP. He’s priced as high as +240 on some sportsbooks, trailing only Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid (+150), the reigning winner.
Denver is 18-8 SU as a favorite and has covered in seven of its 13 home games. The Nuggets, the NBA’s fifth-ranked defensive team (110.3 PPG allowed), have also gone Under the projected total more than anyone in the league. They’re just 2-6 against the Over/Under in their last eight games. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the odds for our Warriors vs Nuggets preview.
Handicapping the Game
The Warriors have a bit of a Jekyll-and-Hyde feel to them, sitting one game below .500. Curry rebounded from a career-worst shooting performance (2-12, 0-8 from 3) in a victory over Portland to post his fourth 30-point game this month and 12th this season.
The teams’ first meeting was close, with Denver squeaking out a 108-105 victory at home on Nov. 8 thanks to 35 points, 13 rebounds and five assists from Jokic. This one could be too, especially if the Nuggets don’t hold Curry in check. That said, the Nuggets are awfully tough to beat at home.
ForNBA betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
