Will The Bucks Force Game 6 At Home?

The Milwaukee Bucks are on life support.

After Damian Lillard was ruled out in Game 4 of the first round of the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks were left with Khris Middleton and Patrick Beverley in their massive playoff matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who were already down 2-1 in the series.

In Game 4, the Bucks couldn’t have anything else go wrong with Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo already ruled out. However, Bobby Portis was ejected just seven minutes into the game for his flagrant foul, leaving the Bucks with no answers for the Pacers in Game 4.

The Pacers drilled a franchise playoff-best 22 threes in a 126-113 victory over Milwaukee in the most recent playoff game. With that, Indiana is up 3-1 in the playoff series and heading back on the road to take on the Bucks in Game 5.

It’s currently unclear if Lillard and/or Antetokounmpo will play in this game. However, the lines suggest the Bucks should at least have Lillard back.

The Pacers were 10.5-point favorites at home in Game 4 but only 3.5-point favorites on the road. Meanwhile, the total is currently at 216.5 for this game. Even oddsmakers’ NBA playoff predictions have the Pacers advancing after Game 5.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the Pacers vs Bucks lines for Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoff series.

Bucks vs Pacers Lines & Trends

Although the Pacers have won three of four games in this series, the Bucks have still won twice against the spread. Meanwhile, the over has hit in three of the series’ first four games.

Over the last ten NBA games, including the playoffs, the Pacers have won seven over the Bucks. The over has also hit in seven of the previous ten games, while the Pacers have added six wins against the spread over the last ten as well.

What Happens If The Bucks Lose?

The obvious answer is that the Bucks will be sent home and miss out on the second round of the NBA Playoffs. But more intelligently, the Bucks will have to make some roster changes to better position themselves in the NBA Playoffs the following year.

Milwaukee didn’t even begin the season with Doc Rivers as its head coach. They made the switch, but the switch from Adrian Griffin to Doc Rivers didn’t really “flip a switch.”

Lillard and Antetokounmpo will be on the roster next season. Middleton and Brook Lopez will likely also stay, but the depth has to get better.

The Suns couldn’t win a game in the playoffs with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker because they had no depth. Meanwhile, as a No. 8 seed, the Miami Heat already had a win against the Celtics, with Jimmy Butler sidelined because they have depth.

The Bucks will need to figure out their roster for next season, so if they run into trouble with injuries again, they can still compete.

The Emergence of Myles Turner

When fans talk about the Pacers, they often speak about Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. And when fans talk about centers, you’ll never hear Myles Turner’s name come out of someone’s mouth. But this postseason, Turner is making NBA fans feel differently.

Turner is second on the team in scoring during this postseason run. He’s also scored 29 points in two consecutive games. In addition, Turner has dropped 50% from downtown on 8.5 attempts per game in this series against the Bucks.

The big man’s postseason stat line stands at 24.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 2.5 fouls, with only 0.3 turnovers per game.

He’s putting together a masterclass against the Bucks. On Sunday, he helped put the Bucks away with his best performance of the playoffs. With 29 points, he shot 58.8% from the field and nailed 7-of-9 from 3, with nine rebounds, four assists, and three blocks.

Too Much Uncertainty With Milwaukee!

There are no guarantees we’ll see Damian Lillard in Game 5 of this series. He would’ve if he were healthy enough to play in Game 4. An Achilles injury doesn’t just go away.

Right off the bat, that’s not encouraging for the Bucks, and the Pacers vs Bucks lines reflect that.

In addition, the Pacers have found their offensive groove. Indiana has scored at least 124.7 points per 100 possessions in three consecutive games. Ultimately, the Pacers only struggled in the first half against the Bucks. The inexperience took over. But since then, the Pacers have looked super confident and are playing extremely consistent basketball on the offensive end.

While the defensive effort isn’t nearly as good, the Pacers are doing enough. They’ll never have to dominate defensively as long as the offense is working to its ability. Indiana was the best offense in the NBA this season and has proven why in this series.

Not only do the Pacers shoot a high effective field goal percentage. But they’re also consistent on the offensive glass and limit turnovers well.

In the last three games, the Pacers have turned the ball over no more than 8.2% of the time. They’ve also defeated the Bucks in different ways. In one game, the Pacers shot poorly but added many offensive rebounds. The Pacers didn’t rebound well in another game but shot lights out on the offensive end.

Indiana won’t get to the foul line consistently. That’s the only negative for the Pacers. But as long as they do everything else on offense, the Bucks won’t have the offense to stick around. Even if Lillard returns, it’s hard to expect him to put up 30+ points to win the game. It’s also unlikely that Antetkounmpo will come back from a calf injury. But again, don’t expect the NBA best players to come in and play at a high level after being unable to play just two days ago.

Consider backing the Pacers at the NBA point spread of -3.5 in Game 5.

Also, make sure to check out all of today’s NBA basketball games and their previews. We could see some new teams move on to the second round tonight.

Bucks vs Pacers Lines

For NBA scores today, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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